KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Spring Fieldwork Underway with Seasonal Market Uncertainties and Price Strength

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, April 18th  are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_04-18-14.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, April 18th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

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Planting Corn in Kansas in 2012 (Source of image: https://aliveandwellinkansas.wordpress.com/tag/corn-planting/)

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2014 Spring Fieldwork underway in Iowa (Source: http://farmprogress.com/)

KSU Agronomist Jim Shroyer: “Hard Freeze Could Damage Some Wheat In Kansas”

Following is an article from Kansas State University Extension regarding the potential and likelihood of further freeze damage to wheat in Kansas from recent weather events, written by KSU Extension Agronomist Jim Shroyer.

https://www.k-state.edu/media/images/mediaguide/shroyer.jpg Jim Shroyer – KSU Extension Agronomist and Wheat Specialist

The article is found at the following KSU Extension web address: http://www.ksre.ksu.edu/news/story/freeze_damage041514.aspx

 

 

 

 

 

 

Freeze injury to the lower stem can cause severe lodging of wheat. Photo by Jim Shroyer, K-State Research and Extension.

MANHATTAN, Kan. – The hard freeze throughout Kansas in the early morning hours of April 15, could cause some damage to wheat, said Jim Shroyer, K-State Research and Extension crop production specialist. Wheat in the jointing stage is most at risk, he said.
There are a number of key factors in determining freeze damage: the stage of development of the wheat, the density of the stand and condition of the plants, the amount of residue on the soil surface, the extent and duration of low temperatures, temperature gradients within the field, soil moisture, and the wind speed, Shroyer explained.

* Stage of development. Wheat that hasn’t started to joint yet might suffer damage to the existing foliage, but the growing points will be protected by the soil and should escape injury. This wheat will have cosmetic damage to the leaves that will show up almost immediately. Jointing wheat can usually tolerate temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s with no significant injury. But if temperatures fall into the low 20’s or even lower for several hours, the lower stems, leaves or developing head can sustain injury.

* Density of the stand and condition of the plants. If the stand is thick, that will tend to reduce the extent of freeze damage as the warmth of the soil will radiate up into the canopy. On the other hand, well-fertilized succulent wheat has often sustained more freeze injury than wheat that is not as well fertilized. Thin stands, which are common this year, are at higher risk of injury because the air can penetrate the stand more easily.

* Residue. Many times there is more freeze damage in no-till fields because the residue acts as a blanket and doesn’t allow the heat from the soil to radiate up into the plant canopy.

* Extent and duration of low temperatures. Significant injury becomes much more likely if the temperatures in the damaging range last for two hours or longer.

* Soil moisture. There is often less freeze injury at a given temperature when soils are wet than when dry. Wetter soils tend to radiate a little more warmth than dry soils.

* Wind speed. Windy conditions during the nighttime hours when temperatures reach their lows will reduce the amount of warmth radiating from the soil and increase the chance of injury.

* Temperature gradients within the field. Low spots in the field are almost always the first to have freeze injury. The coldest air tends to settle in the low areas, especially under calm wind conditions.
There are many possible scenarios after a freeze, and things do not always go according to “the book,” Shroyer said. He advised producers to keep watching their fields closely over the next 7 to 10 days for the following:

* The color of newly emerging leaves. If they are nice and green, that probably indicates the tiller is alive. If newly emerging leaves are yellow, that probably indicates the tiller is dead. The color of existing leaves is not terribly important, except for the flag leaf. Existing leaves will almost always turn bluish-black after a hard freeze, and give off a silage odor. Those leaves are burned back and dead, but that in itself is not a problem as long as newly emerging leaves are green.

* The color of the developing head or growing point in wheat that has jointed. As long as heads are light green and turgid, the head in that tiller is fine. If the head is whitish and flaccid, it has died.

* Ice in the stems. If there was ice in the stems below the first node the morning of the freeze, those tillers may be damaged — although not always — and may not produce grain. You may see split stems from ice accumulation.

* The integrity of the stem. If the wheat lodged immediately after the freeze, that indicates stem damage. Later tillers may eventually cover the damaged tillers. Even if there is no immediate lodging, look for lesions or crimps anywhere on the stems. If you see that, it usually means the wheat will lodge at some point during the season. If the stems look undamaged, that’s a good sign.

The best thing producers can do for the first few days is simply walk the fields to observe lodging, crimped stems and damaged leaves, the K-State agronomist said.

Be patient. Do not take any immediate actions as a result of the freeze, such as destroying the field for recropping. It will take several days of warm weather to accurately evaluate the extent of damage,” he said. After several days, producers should split open some stems and check the developing head, he said. “Where stems and/or growing points were killed by the freeze, start looking for new tiller growth coming from the crown area. In fact, look for new tiller growth even if you think the stems look okay. Sometimes tillers can be killed but will not show any symptoms for quite a while. In those cases, the first sign that the tillers are dead is the sudden growth of new tillers at the base of the plant,” Shroyer said.

If secondary tillers begin growing normally and fill out the stand, the wheat may look ragged because the main tillers are absent, he added. Watch out for bird cherry oat aphids and other potential insect or disease problems on these late-developing tillers, he said.  “Enough tillers may survive to produce good yields, if spring growing conditions are good. If both the main and secondary tillers are injured, the field may eventually have large areas that have a yellowish cast and reduced yield potential,” he said.

More information on freeze damage to wheat is available in Spring Freeze Injury to Kansas Wheat, K-State Research and Extension publication C646, available at county and district Extension offices and online.

 

Soybean Market Outlook for MY 2014/15 (KSU Forecasts)

Following the April 9th USDA WASDE report, the following grain market outlook analysis and forecasts for U.S. Soybeans have been developed.  A full MS Powerpoint presentation of corn, wheat and soybean market analysis following the April 9th USDA report was given at the Agricultural Exposition in Great Bend, Kansas on Thursday, April 10th.  The full presentation is available on the KSU AgManager.info website:  http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp, at the following web address:  http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/OBrien_AgExpo_GreatBend_04-10-14.pdf

Following are key parts of the current KSU Soybean Market Outlook for the 2014/15 marketing year.

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Wheat Market Outlook for MY 2014/15 (KSU Forecasts)

Following the April 9th USDA WASDE report (http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/), the following grain market outlook analysis and forecasts for U.S. Wheat have been developed.  A full MS Powerpoint presentation of corn, wheat and soybean market analysis following the April 9th USDA report was given at the Agricultural Exposition in Great Bend, Kansas on Thursday, April 10th.  The full presentation was given on the KSU AgManager.info website:  http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp, at the following web address:  http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/OBrien_AgExpo_GreatBend_04-10-14.pdf

Following are key parts of the current KSU Wheat Market Outlook for the 2014/15 marketing year.

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Corn Market Outlook for MY 2014/15 (KSU Forecasts)

Following the April 9th USDA WASDE report, the following grain market outlook analysis and forecasts for U.S. Corn have been developed.  A full MS Powerpoint presentation of corn, wheat and soybean market analysis following the April 9th USDA report was given at the Agricultural Exposition in Great Bend, Kansas on Thursday, April 10th.  The full presentation was given on the KSU AgManager.info website:  http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp, at the following web address:  http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/OBrien_AgExpo_GreatBend_04-10-14.pdf

Following are key parts of the current KSU Corn Market Outlook for the 2014/15 marketing year.

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KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Reviewing the week’s reaction to the 3/31/14 Prospective Plantings and Stocks reports

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, April 4th  are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_04-04-14.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, April 4th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  After the program airs, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

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Kansas Grain Sorghum Field (Source of image: http://charliewolf.hubpages.com/)

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Center Pivot Irrigated Corn in Rice County, Kansas in 2013 (Source: http://www.rice.ksu.edu/p.aspx?tabid=13)

Results and Implications of the USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports of 3/31/2014

 

Following is a KSU Summary with market implications stemming from the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports.  The full report is available on the KSU Agmanager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/archives/GRAIN-OUTLOOK_04-01-14_Plantings-Stocks.pdf

Summary

On Monday, March 31st the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. The 2014 Prospective Plantings report provided the first actual survey-based information by the USDA on U.S. farmer’s cropping intentions for 2014. From this market analysts can begin examinations of 2014 U.S. crop production prospects, projected supply-demand balances, and prices for these crops in their respective “new crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The quarterly March 2014 Grain Stocks report provided grain markets with improved information on the pace of usage of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops in their respective “current” 2013/14 marketing years. Adjustments may occur to U.S. corn supply-demand projections for “current” MY 2013/14 in the upcoming April 9th USDA WASDE report.

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Grain Storage in Farm Country (Source: http://www.feedandgrain.com/)

 

The Prospective Plantings report projected 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage to be 91.691 million acres (ma), down over 1 million acres from pre-report trade expectations, and down 3.674 ma from 95.365 ma in 2013. In addition, 2014 U.S. soybean planted acres were forecast to be 81.493 ma, up 418,000 acres from pre-report average trade expectations, and up 4.960 ma from 76.533 ma in 2013. Expected 2014 plantings of U.S. wheat of 55.815 ma were down 462,000 acres from pre-report trade expectations, and 341,000 acres less than 56.156 ma of U.S. wheat planted in 2013. By category, projected 2014 U.S. winter wheat acreage was below both pre-report expectations and year ago levels. Other U.S. spring wheat acreage was projected to be below pre-report expectations in 2014, but still above year ago levels, while 2014 U.S. durum wheat acreage was projected to be higher than year ago levels.

The quarterly Grain Stocks report estimated that U.S. corn stocks on March 1st were 7.006 billion bushels (bb), down 93 mb from pre-report expectations, but still up from 6.023 bb a year ago. This lower than expected projection of U.S. corn March 1st stocks was a result of higher than expected U.S. corn usage during the December 2013 through February 2014 period. Calculated U.S. Dec-Feb 2014 U.S. corn use is 3.446 bb, up 119 mb from implied pre-report trade estimates, and down 177 mb from 3.623 bb in Dec-Feb 2013. Projected U.S. soybean and wheat March 1st stocks and associated usage during Dec-Feb 2014 were nearly as expected. Usage of U.S. wheat during Dec-Feb 2014 was less than a year ago, and usage of U.S. soybeans were markedly greater than a year ago during Dec-Feb 2013.

As a result of these reports, KSU supply-demand and price forecasts for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year were adjusted from projections made earlier in March. The United States’ 2014 corn, grain sorghum, and wheat crop production forecasts were generally lowered as a result of the lower planted acreage projections in these USDA reports – with an expected moderate increase in projected prices for these same crops. KSU “new crop” U.S. corn price projections were raised $0.10 to $0.35 per bushel from a month ago, while U.S. wheat price projections were unchanged to up $0.25 per bushel. Conversely, the large increase in projected U.S. soybean acres in 2014 has caused projections of “new crop” 2014 U.S. soybean production to jump significantly, leading to an increase in supply-demand balances, and to a marked decrease in expected “new crop” MY 2014/15 soybean prices – down to $10 per bushel and below. KSU “new crop” U.S. soybean price projections were lowered $0.50 in “expected” and “large production” scenarios, and by as much as $4.00 per bushel from a month ago in the “low production” supply-demand scenario.

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Corn versus Soybean Planting Decisions in 2014 (Source: http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/)