KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Lower-Sideways Feedgrain, Wheat prices, lower Soybeans heading into Harvest

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, August 29, 2014  are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_08-29-14.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, August 29th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

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Early August Grain Sorghum Field near Hays, Kansas (Source of image: http://www.hayspost.com/2014/08/12/kansas-expected-to-harvest-bountiful-fall-crops/)

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Seeding Wheat acres in fall 2012 near Hutchinson, Kansas (Source: http://www.hutchpost.com/2012/09/11/kansas-farmers-now-planting-2013-wheat-crop/)

EIA Info-Graphics on Increasing Rail Car Numbers Hauling Oil (Competing with Grain Train Shipments)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration provides a graphic showing the increase in the number of railroad car shipments of U.S. oil on a weekly basis.  The article can be found at the following web address:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17751&src=email

It is not news in the U.S. agricultural / grain sector that the problem of lack of availability of rail cars could have a significant negative impact on grain markets in general and local grain basis in particular in the fall-winter of 2014-2015.  Large supplies on top of lack of rail shipping ability could have a much larger than expected impact on local Kansas grain prices in coming months than we have been anticipating.

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Railcar availability and grain shipping problems in the Dakotas in 2014 (Source: http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2014/04/11/railroad-problems-put-grain-ethanol-shippers-trouble/7583293/)

 

U.S. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market-Profitability Graphics (via KSU AgManager)

Following are some graphics on price and profitability trends in the U.S. ethanol and biodiesel industries, which will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website: http://www.agmanager.info/    The full presentation titled “U.S. Ethanol & Biodiesel Market Situation” made for WILL (Illinois Public Radio) on Tuesday, August 22nd will be located at the KSU AgManager.info website – at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/Ethanol-Market_WILL-Radio_08-26-14.pptx

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Soybean Market Outlook – 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conf., Manhattan, KS

Following are parts of the Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015 to be presented today at the 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conference (here).  The theme of this years conference is “Ag Policy – Here, There, Everywhere.” This year’s Risk and Profit Conference is being held at the Kansas State University Alumni Center, starting with registration this morning, Thursday, August 21st, and lasting through 3 p.m., Friday, August 22nd.  More information on the 2014 Risk and Profit can be found at KSU AgManager website: www.agmanager.info

Following is the full Soybean-related portion of today’s Grain Market Outlook Presentation.

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Wheat Market Outlook – 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conf., Manhattan, KS

Following are parts of the Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015 to be presented today at the 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conference (here).  The theme of this years conference is “Ag Policy – Here, There, Everywhere.” This year’s Risk and Profit Conference is being held at the Kansas State University Alumni Center, starting with registration this morning, Thursday, August 21st, and lasting through 3 p.m., Friday, August 22nd.  More information on the 2014 Risk and Profit can be found at KSU AgManager website: www.agmanager.info

Following is the full wheat portion of today’s Grain Market Outlook Presentation.

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Feedgrain Market Outlook – 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conf., Manhattan, KS

Following are parts of the Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015 to be presented today at the 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conference (here).  The theme of this years conference is “Ag Policy – Here, There, Everywhere.” This year’s Risk and Profit Conference is being held at the Kansas State University Alumni Center, starting with registration this morning, Thursday, August 21st, and lasting through 3 p.m., Friday, August 22nd.  More information on the 2014 Risk and Profit can be found at KSU AgManager website: www.agmanager.info

Following is the full feedgrain portion of today’s Grain Market Outlook Presentation.

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Kansas Corn, Milo, HRW-Wheat, and Soybean Basis Charts: Garden City (SW), Salina (C) and Columbus (SE), Kansas (by Taylor and Llewelyn)

Following are a sample of the latest Grain Basis Charts made available on the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info).  These charts represent 2010-2014 basis levels through mid-August 2014 in Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeastern), Kansas.   Garden City is a primary market in southwest Kansas, near cattle feeding operations and not too distant from ethanol plants in the region.  Salina is a key grain handling and transportation hub in central Kansas, especially for corn, wheat, grain sorghum, and soybean markets.  Columbus in the southeast corner Kansas is located near the livestock feed markets in Arkansas for grain, and a regional grain market center in southeast Kansas.

Note some of the differences in the level and trends in grain basis across these areas of the state of Kansas.  For corn basis has been “level to uptrending” in recent weeks in Garden City and Columbus, but “downtrending” in Salina.  Basis for grain sorghum has been “level-to-uptrending” in Salina and Columbus in recent weeks, but trending “sideways” in Garden City.  Wheat basis has been “weakening” in recent weeks in Garden City, and especially in Salina, but less so in Columbus. The basis for soybeans has spiked sharply higher in all three Kansas locations in recent weeks, likely reflecting a temporarily tight “old crop” supply condition prior to the coming new crop harvest in September-October 2014.

The KSU grain basis charts utility has the ability to generate grain basis information for a large number of locations in Kansas as well as the surrounding states of Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle region.

The online web utility for Kansas Grain Basis maps is available at the following web addresses:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/basis/

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/basis/tools/

These charts are generated by Kansas State University Agricultural Economics faculty and staff, with leadership by Mykel Taylor and Rich Llewelyn.

A. Corn Basis Bids (2010-2014): Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeast), Kansas

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B. Grain Sorghum Basis Bids (2010-2014): Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeast), Kansas

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C. Hard Red Winter Wheat Basis Bids (2010-2014): Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeast), Kansas

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D. Soybean Basis Bids (2010-2014): Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeast), Kansas

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