KSU “Quick Analysis” of the 6/30/2015 USDA Acreage Report

On Tuesday, June 30, 2015 the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2015 USDA Acreage Report and its June 1, 2015 Quarterly Stocks Report.  There were a number of market surprises in the 2015 USDA Acreage Report, including:

A. U.S. Corn Acreage in 2015

The USDA projected 2015 U.S. Corn planted acreage to be 88.897 million acres (ma) – down 395,000 (-0.4%) from pre-report expectations.  Planted acreage of 88.897 ma in 2015 would be the lowest amount since 2010, being down from 90.597 ma planted in 2014, 95.365 ma in 2013, and 97.291 ma in 2012.

The USDA also projected 2015 U.S. Corn harvested acreage to be 81.101 ma (91.2% harvested-to-planted acres) – down from 83.136 ma harvested in 2014 (91.8% hvstd/plntd), 87.451 ma in 2013 (91.7% hvsted/plntd), and 87.365 ma in 2012 (89.8% hvstd/plntd).

Market Impact: Using the USDA’s June 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected 2015 U.S. corn yield of 166.8 bu/ac, corn production in the U.S. in 2015 would be 13.528 billion bushels (bb) – down 102 mb from the June 10th USDA forecast of 13.630 bb.  All else being equal, the USDA’s forecast of ending stocks would be reduced by the same amount down to 1.669 bb, with ending stocks-to-use down to 12.1% from 12.9% in the June 1oth WASDE report.  Projected U.S. corn prices for “new crop” 2015/16 would be expected to be adjusted higher from $3.50 by at least a small-to-moderate amount – likely $0.25-$0.50 per bushel higher.

B. U.S. Soybean Acreage in 2015

The USDA projected 2015 U.S. Soybean planted acreage to be 85.139 ma – down 3,200 acres from pre-report expectations.  Planted acreage of 85.139 ma in 2015 would be a record high, being up from the previous record of 83.701 ma planted in 2014, 76.840 ma in 2013, and 77.198 ma in 2012.

The USDA also projected 2015 U.S. Soybean harvested acreage to be 84.449 ma (99.2% harvested-to-planted acres) – up from 83.061 ma harvested in 2014 (99.2% hvstd/plntd), 76.253 ma in 2013 (99.2% hvsted/plntd), and 76.144 ma in 2012 (98.6% hvstd/plntd).

Because of wet weather conditions and delayed plantings of soybeans in selected states in May and early June, the USDA indicated that it will re-survey agricultural producers in Kansas, Arkansas and Missouri in regards to soybean planted acreage.  The USDA indicated that if the new survey data justifies changes to the June 30th Acreage report estimates, such changes would be published in the August 12th USDA NASS Crop Production report.

Market Impact: Using the USDA’s June 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected 2015 U.S. soybean yield of 46.0 bu/ac, soybean production in the U.S. in 2015 would be 3.885 bb – up 35 mb from the June 10th USDA forecast of 3.850 bb.  All else being equal, the USDA’s forecast of ending stocks would be increased by the same amount – up to 510 mb, with ending stocks-to-use up to 13.7% from 12.7% projected in the June 10th WASDE report.  Projected U.S. soybean prices for “new crop” 2015/16 would be expected to be adjusted marginally lower from $9.00 by a small amount – likely down $0.10-$0.25 per bushel.

C. U.S. Wheat Acreage in 2015

The USDA projected 2015 U.S. Wheat planted acreage to be 56.079 ma – up 212,000 acres from pre-report expectations.  Planted acreage of 56.079 ma in 2015 would be down from 56.822 ma planted in 2014, 56.236 ma in 2013, and 55.294 ma in 2012.  On the basis of wheat type, planted acreage of 2015 U.S. winter wheat of 40.620 ma came in 0.5% below pre-report expectations, down to the lowest level since at lease 2012.  Planted acreage of 2015 U.S. other spring wheat of 13.505 ma came in 2.2% above pre-report expectations, up to the highest level since at least 2012.  Planted acreage of 2015 U.S. durum wheat of 1.954 ma came in 8.0% above pre-report expectations, up to the highest level since 2.138 ma in 2012.

The USDA also projected 2015 U.S. Wheat harvested acreage to be 48.545 ma (82.1% harvested-to-planted acres) – up from 46.381 ma harvested in 2014 (81.6% hvstd/plntd), and 45.332 ma in 2013 (80.6% hvsted/plntd), but down from 48.758 ma in 2012 (88.2% hvstd/plntd).

Market Impact: Using the USDA’s June 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected 2015 U.S. wheat yield of 44.2 bu/ac, wheat production in the U.S. in 2015 would be 2.145 bb – up 24 mb from the June 10th USDA forecast of 2.121 bb.  All else being equal, the USDA’s forecast of ending stocks would be increased by the same amount – up to 838 mb, with ending stocks-to-use up to 38.8% from 37.7% projected in the June 10th WASDE report.  Projected U.S. soybean prices for “new crop” 2015/16 would be expected to be adjusted marginally lower from $4.90 by a small amount – likely down $0.05-$0.10 per bushel.

D. U.S. Grain Sorghum Acreage in 2015

The USDA projected 2015 U.S. Grain Sorghum planted acreage to be 8.840 million acres (ma) – up 930,000 (+11.8%) from pre-report expectations.  Planted acreage of 8.840 ma in 2015 would be up from 7.138 ma planted in 2014, 8.076 ma in 2013, and 6.259 ma in 2012.

The USDA also projected 2015 U.S. Grain Sorghum harvested acreage to be 7.773 ma (87.9% harvested-to-planted acres) – up from 6.401 ma harvested in 2014 (89.7% hvstd/plntd), 6.585 ma in 2013 (81.5% hvsted/plntd), and 4.995 ma in 2012 (79.8% hvstd/plntd).

Market Impact: Using the USDA’s June 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected 2015 U.S. grain sorghum yield of 64.9 bu/ac, grain sorghum production in the U.S. in 2015 would be 504 million bushels (mb) – up 69 mb from the June 10th USDA forecast of 435 mb.

**************

http://www.wilsonks.com/images/other/Wilson%20Lake%20Rocktown%202011%20%20(500x333).jpg

Wilson Lake in Central-Western Kansas (Source: http://www.wilsonks.com/wilson_lake.htm)

KSU “Quick Analysis” of the 6/30/2015 USDA Grain Stocks Report

Today on June 30, 2015 the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2015 Acreage Report and its June 1, 2015 Quarterly Stocks Report.  Following are the key findings in the June 1st Grain Stocks report by major crop:

A. U.S. Corn

U.S. Corn Stocks on June 1, 2015 = 4.447 billion bushels (bb)……..Down 108 million bushels (mb) from pre-report expectations, and up markedly from 3.8520 bb on 6/1/2014, 2.766 bb on 6/1/2013, and 3.148 bb on 6/1/2012. The 67% confidence interval for this USDA forecast is from 4.327 to 4.567 bb, implying that his estimate could still be adjusted in future USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Corn Usage during March-May 2015  = 3.303 bb……..Up 113 mb from implied pre-report expectations, and greater than 3.165 bb in Mar-May 2014, 2.674 bb in Mar-May 2013, and 2.886 bb in Mar-May 2012.

On-Farm Storage of U.S. corn is estimated to be 2.275 bb, up 22% from a year earlier, and indicative of a large amount of unsold U.S. corn yet on “current crop” 2014/15.  These carryover supplies are likely to continue to be a limiting factor for U.S. corn cash prices in coming months (absent a weather-related, negative set of production factors in the summer of 2015).   Off-Farm Commercial Storage of U.S. corn is estimated to be 2.172 bb, up 9% from a year earlier, also indicative of large available yet-unused U.S. corn supplies and of limited prospects for U.S. corn prices this summer (again – absent major crop production reductions from wet soils, slow crop development, other other potential crop problems).

Market Implications => Lower than expected June 1, 2015 U.S. corn stocks and higher than expected March-May 2015 U.S. corn use are positive factors for U.S. corn price prospects. Still, U.S. corn stocks of 4..447 bb on June 1, 2015 are 15% – 60% larger than June 1 stocks over the 2012-2014 period, and likely to be a limiting factor in major corn price rallies (absent major U.S. corn production problems in the summer of 2015).

B. U.S. Grain Sorghum

U.S. Grain Sorghum Stocks on June 1, 2015 = 33 million bushels (mb)……..Down 6 mb from pre-report expectations, and down dramatically from 99 mb on 6/1/2014, 41 mb on 6/1/2013, and 59 mb on 6/1/2012.  The 67% confidence interval for this USDA forecast is from 28 to 39 mb, implying as for other major U.S. crops that his estimate could still change to some degree in future Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Grain Sorghum Usage during March-May 2015  = 86.7 mb……..Up 6 mb from implied pre-report expectations, and up from 83 mb in Mar-May 2014 (also a strong export period for U.S. grain sorghum), 50 mb in Mar-May 2013, and 49 mb in Mar-May 2012.

Market Implications => Strong exports of U.S. grain sorghum during the first three quarters of the 2014/2015 marketing year (i.e., September 2014 through May 2015) have been a major factor in usage being higher than during the previous three (3) March-May periods. This is a supportive, bullish result for U.S. grain sorghum markets and local grain sorghum basis.

C. U.S. Wheat

U.S. Wheat Stocks on June 1, 2015 =753 million bushels (mb)……..up 35 mb from pre-report expectations, and up from 590 mb on 6/1/2014, 718 mb on 6/1/2013, and 743 mb on 6/1/2012.  The 67% confidence interval for this USDA forecast is from 715 to 790 mb, indicating that this estimate could still be adjusted in future Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Wheat Usage during March-May 2015  = 388 mb……..Down 18 mb from implied pre-report expectations, and down from 513 mb in Mar-May 2014, 547 mb in Mar-May 2013, and 486 mb in Mar-May 2012.

Market Implications => Weak exports of U.S. wheat during both the Dec-Feb and Mar-May 2015 periods and moderate wheat feeding have been major factors in U.S. wheat usage being less than during the previous three (3) March-May periods. This is a negative, bearish result for U.S. wheat market prices.  However, concerns about the quantity and quality of the 2015 U.S. winter wheat crop and also about 2015 wheat production in major foreign wheat producing nations may mitigate these negative factors to some degree, and begin to play an important positive role in U.S. wheat market direction in coming weeks and months.

D. U.S. Soybeans

U.S. Soybean Stocks on June 1, 2015 =625 million bushels (mb)……..Down 45 mb from pre-report expectations, and up sharply from 405 mb on 6/1/2014, and from 435 mb on 6/1/2013, but down from 668 mb on 6/1/2012.  The 67% confidence interval for this USDA forecast is from 604 to 647 mb.

U.S. Soybean Usage during March-May 2015  = 701 mb……..Up 37 mb from implied pre-report expectations, and up from 607 mb in Mar-May 2014, and 571 mb in Mar-May 2013, but down from 712 mb in Mar-May 2012.

On-Farm Storage of U.S. soybeans is estimated to be 246 mb, up 126% from a year earlier, and indicative of a large amount of unsold U.S. soybeans yet on “current crop” 2014/15 – that (similar to corn markets) is likely to be a negative factor in U.S. soybean cash prices in coming months (absent a weather-related, negative set of U.S. soybean production factors in the summer of 2015).   Off-Farm Commercial Storage of U.S. soybeans is estimated to be 379 mb, up 28% from a year earlier, also indicative along with On-farm storage amounts of a “large supply-lower price” outlook for U.S. soybean prices this summer (absent 2015 U.S. soybean crop production problems this summer).

Market Implications => At face value, this grain stocks report is “moderately supportive” for U.S. soybean markets, with lower than expected June 1st U.S. soybean stocks, and moderately higher than expected Mar-May 2015 usage.  These results support the idea that lower prices have helped cause higher soybean usage during Mar-May 2015.

Slide1 Slide2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://i2.wp.com/www.nps.gov/ncrc/programs/rtca/nri/images/ks.JPG

One of Kansas’ Scenic Rivers (Source: http://kansas-outdoors.blogspot.com/p/kansas-outdoors.html)

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Production Questions Emerging

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, June 26th are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_06-26-15.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, June 26th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

Slide1 Slide2 Slide3 Slide4 Slide5 Slide6 Slide7 Slide8 Slide9 Slide10 Slide11 Slide12 Slide13 Slide14 Slide15 Slide16 Slide17 

U.S. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market-Profitability Graphics through June 23, 2015

Following are some graphics on price and profitability trends in the U.S. ethanol and biodiesel industries, which will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website: http://www.agmanager.info/

Slide1 Slide5 Slide6 Slide7 Slide9 Slide10 Slide11 Slide12 Slide13 Slide14 Slide15 Slide16 Slide17 Slide18 Slide19 Slide20 Slide21 Slide1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Slide1

 

 

KSU Soybean Market Outlook in June 2015 – Acreage and Production Questions to be Answered

An analysis of U.S. and World soybean supply-demand factors and 2015-2016 price prospects following the USDA’s June 10th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports is available on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp). Following is a summary of the article on Soybean Market Outlook – with the full article and accompanying analysis available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/archives/GRAIN-OUTLOOK_06-22-15_Soybeans.pdf

************************

Summary

Overview

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on June 10th, soybean futures prices moved first moderately lower and then sharply higher. Near term U.S. soybean market price prospects are limited by a) record 2014 South American and U.S. soybean crops leading to 33% growth in “current” MY 2014/15 World soybean stocks, b) prospects for record 2015 South American and near record U.S. soybean production – resulting in 11% more growth in ending stocks again “new crop” MY 2015/16, and c) the high value of the U.S. dollar – putting U.S. soybeans at a disadvantage to exportable supplies from South America (with their “weaker” currencies).

Soybean price prospects seem limited through July-August 2015 – when questions about potential U.S. production problems may be answered. That said, IF major World geopolitical conflicts and/or financial market problems occur, grain markets could be extremely volatile, but the direction of such potential grain price changes is difficult to predict.

Longer term, since MY 2008/09 the strong upward trend in World soybean production (up 7.1% annually) has “out-paced” the increase in World soybean use (up 5.4% per year), leading to record World soybean ending stocks and percent stocks-to-use, and to a dramatic reduction in price prospects in the coming year. Absent major unforeseen crop production problems in the U.S. and South America in “new crop” MY 2015/16, low prices and poor profitability are likely to cause a scaling back of World production in MY 2016/17 and beyond.

USDA U.S. Soybean Projection for “New Crop” MY 2015/16

The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. soybean production of 3.850 billion bushels (bb) – down 119 million bushels (mb) from the record high of 3.969 bb in 2014. For “new crop” 2015/16, USDA projected U.S. total supplies at a record 4.210 bb (vs 4.091 bb in 2014/15), crush at 1.830 bb (up 5 mb), exports at 1.775 bb (down from the record 1.810 bb in 2014/15), total use at 3.734 bb (vs record of 3.761 bb in 2014/15), and ending stocks at a 9 year high of 475 mb (down 25 mb and up from 330 mb in 2014/15). Ending stocks-to-use are projected at 12.72% – up from 8.77% in 2014/15, and the record low of 2.65% in 2013/14. The USDA forecast “new crop” 2015/16 prices to be in the range $8.25-$9.75 (midpoint = $9.00 /bu) – down from $10.05 in 2014/15, $13.00 in 2013/14, and the record high of $14.40 in 2012/13.

Kansas State University U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2015/16

A) KSU “Normal Crop” Scenario: 30% prob. of 84.635 ma planted, 83.696 ma harvested, trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.775 bb 2015 production, 4.135 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.682 bb total use, 453 mb end stocks, 12.30% ending S/U (vs 8.77% in “current” MY 2014/15), & $9.15 /bu (vs $10.05 in “current” MY 2014/15).

B) KSU “Normal-Large Crop” Scenario: 50% prob. of 86.701 ma planted, 85.739 ma harvested, trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.867 bb 2015 production, 4.227 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.742 bb total use, 485 mb end stocks, 12.96% ending S/U (vs 8.77% in “current” MY 2014/15), & $8.90 /bu (vs $10.05 in “current” 2014/15).

C) KSU “Short Crop” Scenario: 20% prob. of 86.701 ma planted, 85.739 ma harvested, low yield of 40.0 bu/ac, 3.430 bb 2015 production, 3.800 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.543 bb total use, 257 mb end stocks, 7.25% ending S/U (vs 8.77% in “current” MY 2014/15), & $10.75 /bu (vs $10.05 in “current” MY 2014/15).

World Soybean Supply-Demand

Record high World soybean production of 317.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 318.25 mmt in “current” 2014/15, and up from 283.25 mmt in 2013/14. “New crop” MY 2015/16 soybean production in Brazil (97.0 mmt – up 2.5 mmt from a year earlier), Argentina (57.0 mmt – down 2.5 mmt), and Paraguay (8.8 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), total 162.8 mmt (up from 162.5 mmt last year). Record high projected World soybean ending stocks of 93.2 mmt (30.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 83.7 mmt (28.5% S/U) in “current” 2014/15, and up from 62.8 mmt (22.8 % S/U) in 2013/14.

https://i0.wp.com/kansasagnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Soybean-Field.jpg

Kansas Soybean Fields (Source: http://kansasagnetwork.com/2013/trans-fat-ban-could-cut-u-s-soybean-acres/)

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Looking to the June 30th USDA Acreage & Quarterly Stocks Reports

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, June 19th  are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_06-19-15.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, June 19th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

Slide1 Slide2 Slide3 Slide4 Slide5 Slide6 Slide7 Slide8 Slide9 Slide10

KSU Wheat Market Outlook in June 2015

An analysis of U.S. and World Wheat supply-demand factors and price prospects based on information from the June 10, 2015 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports will be placed up on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary – with the full analysis-article for Wheat to be found at the following web address on Thursday, June 18th: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/archives/

************************

Summary

Overview

Since USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports on June 10th, U.S. wheat market prices have traded lower due to a) marginal improvements in U.S. Hard Red Winter wheat production prospects in the Great Plains, and b) continued strength of the U.S. dollar – a negative for U.S. wheat exports.

For the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year the USDA projected that 1) World wheat total supplies and total use would be at record high levels, 2) World wheat export trade would be up marginally from a year ago – with a moderate improvement in U.S. exports from the 15 year low in MY 2014/15, and c) World wheat ending stocks would be record high, with percent ending stocks-to-use at their highest level since MY 2011/12.

There are emerging concerns about potential wheat supply prospects from Australia, India, and elsewhere in “new crop” MY 2015/16 due to the development of a significant “El Nino” World weather pattern, as well as the ongoing geopolitical problems in the Black Sea region, and long term uncertainty in World financial and currency markets. World markets have evolved into a “large crop-over-supply” situation, with future prospects dependent on whether production and/or export problems can be avoided in major World wheat producing and exporting areas in year 2015 and beyond.

The June 30th USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports may provide direction to the wheat market – both in regards 2015 U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage and production prospects, as well as the amount of U.S. wheat feeding and other uses that have occurred during the March-May 2015 time frame.

USDA U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand & Price Forecast

For U.S. wheat in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, the USDA projected that there would be 55.367 million acres (ma) planted, 47.977 ma harvested, 44.2 bu/ac yields, 2.121 billion bushels (bb) production, 2.973 bb total supplies, 925 million bushel (mb) exports, 195 mb feed & residual use, 2.159 bb total use, 814 mb end stocks, with 37.7% ending-stocks-to-use (the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/08). The USDA projected U.S. average wheat prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16 in the range of $4.40-$5.40 /bu. (midpoint =$4.90) – the lowest since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.

KSU U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand & Price Forecast

Key market factors for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are the level of 2015 U.S. wheat production, and the degree of recovery in U.S. wheat exports. Kansas State University projections of “new crop” MY 2015/16 supply-demand balances and prices are represented in two scenarios:

A) “Medium Yield-Higher Exports” Scenario: 65% prob. of 55.367 ma planted, 46.557 ma harvested, 43.9 bu/ac yield, 2.044 bb production, 2.895 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 2.194 bb total use, 702 mb ending stocks, 32.0% S/U, and $5.50 /bu U.S. avg. price.

B) “Lower Yield-Higher Exports” Scenario: 35% prob. of 55.367 ma planted, 46.557 ma harvested, 42.5 bu/ac lower yield, 1.979 bb production, 2.841 bb total supplies, 1.000 bb exports, 2.196 bb total use, 645 mb ending stocks, 29.4% S/U, and $6.10 /bu U.S. avg. price.

USDA World Wheat

Prospects for large World wheat supplies and stocks are causing lower World wheat market prices. World wheat total supplies of 922.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 916.3 mmt in MY 2014/15, and from 893.7 mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 202.4 mmt (28.1% S/U) are up from 200.4 mmt (28.0% S/U) in MY 2014/15, and from 190.0 mmt (27.0% S/U) in MY 2013/14. For perspective, these recent supply-demand figures can be compared to the historic World wheat ending stocks and stocks-to-use minimums of 128.75 mmt and 20.9% S/U in MY 2007/08.

https://jaygoodrich.com/wp-content/uploads/Kansas-Wheat-Harvest1.jpg

A scene from past Kansas Wheat Harvests (Source: https://jaygoodrich.com/testimonial-charles-lloyd/kansas-wheat-harvest/)

https://i2.wp.com/resources0.news.com.au/images/2010/10/18/1225940/217776-aus-bus-pix-wheat-field-dimboola-victoria.jpg

A wheat field near Dimboola, Victoria in Australia (Source: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/business-old/salim-seaboard-take-minority-stakes-in-wheat-marketer/story-e6frg95o-1225940218159)