KSU “Quick Analysis of the Numbers” of the 3/31/2015 USDA Grain Stocks Report

Today on March 31, 2015 the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2015 Prospective Plantings Report and its March 1, 2015 Quarterly Stocks Report.  Following are the key findings in the Grain Stocks report by major crop:

A. U.S. Corn

U.S. Corn Stocks on March 1, 2015 = 7.745 billion bushels (bb)……..Up 136 million bushels (mb) from prereport expectations, and up from 7.008 bb on 3/1/2014, 5.400 bb on 3/1/2013, and 6.023 bb on 3/1/2012. The 67% confidence interval for this USDA forecast is from 7.582 to 7.908 bb, implying that his estimate could still change considerably in future Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Corn Usage during December 2014 – February 2015  = 3.467 bb……..Down 277 mb from implied prereport expectations, but comparable to 3.444 bb in Dec-Feb 2014, 2.633 bb in Dec-Feb 2013, and 3.623 bb in Dec-Feb 2012.

On-Farm Storage of U.S. corn is estimated to be 4.38 bb, up 13% from a year earlier, and indicative of a large amount of unsold U.S. corn yet on “current crop” 2014/15 that is likely to be a negative factor in U.S. corn cash prices in coming months (absent a weather-related, negative set of production factors in the summer of 2015).   Off-Farm Commercial Storage of U.S. corn is estimated to be 3.36 bb, up 7% from a year earlier, also indicative along with On-farm storage amounts, and a negative outlook for U.S. corn prices this summer.

Market Implications => Higher than expected March 1, 2015 U.S. corn stocks and lower than expected Dec-Feb 2015 U.S. corn use is likely to be interpreted as negative for U.S. corn markets. However, Dec-Feb 2015 U.S. corn usage is still the highest in 3 years – even with just a moderate pace of U.S. corn exports during this time period.

B. U.S. Grain Sorghum

U.S. Grain Sorghum Stocks on March 1, 2015 =119 million bushels (mb)……..Down 7 mb from prereport expectations, and down from 176 mb on 3/1/2014.  However, this amount is larger than 92 mb on 3/1/2013, and 108 mb on 3/1/2012.  The 67% confidence interval for this USDA forecast is from 85 to 152 mb, implying as for other major U.S. crops that his estimate could still change considerably in future Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Grain Sorghum Usage during December 2014 – February 2015  = 104 mb……..Up 1 mb from implied prereport expectations, but up considerably from 56 mb in Dec-Feb 2014, 48 mb in Dec-Feb 2013, and 43 mb in Dec-Feb 2012.

Market Implications => Strong exports of U.S. grain sorghum during the Dec-Feb 2015 period have been a major factor in usage being nearly double the amount used during the previous three (3) Dec-Feb periods. This is a supportive, bullish result for U.S. grain sorghum markets and local grain sorghum basis.

C. U.S. Wheat

U.S. Wheat Stocks on March 1, 2015 =1.124 billion bushels (bb)……..Down 16 mb from prereport expectations, and up from 1.057 bb on 3/1/2014.  However, this amount is smaller than 1.235 bb on 3/1/2013, and 1.199 bb on 3/1/2012.  The 67% confidence interval for this USDA forecast is from 1.066 to 1.183 bb, indicating that this estimate could still change considerably in future Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Wheat Usage during December 2014 – February 2015  = 405 mb……..Down 36 mb from implied prereport expectations, and down from 418 mb in Dec-Feb 2014, 436 mb in Dec-Feb 2013, and 463 mb in Dec-Feb 2012.

Market Implications => Weak exports of U.S. wheat during the Dec-Feb 2015 period and moderate-to-poor wheat feeding have been a major factor in usage being less than the amount used during the previous three (3) Dec-Feb periods. This is a negative, bearish result for U.S. wheat markets and likely also for local wheat basis.  However, concerns about growing conditions for winter wheat in the U.S. may mitigate this factors and begin to play a major role in U.S. wheat market direction in coming weeks and months.

D. U.S. Soybeans

U.S. Soybean Stocks on March 1, 2015 =1.334 billion bushels (bb)…….., Record high, but down 70 mb from prereport expectations, and up from 998 million bushels (mb) on 3/1/2014 and from 994 mb on 3/1/2013.  However, this amount is smaller than 1.374 bb on 3/1/2012.  The 67% confidence interval for this USDA forecast is from 1.254 to 1.414 bb, indicating that this estimate could still change considerably in future Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Soybean Usage during December 2014 – February 2015  = 1.194 bb……..Up 16 mb from implied prereport expectations, and up considerably from from 1.160 bb in Dec-Feb 2014, 968 mb in Dec-Feb 2013, and 995 mb in Dec-Feb 2012.

On-Farm Storage of U.S. soybean is estimated to be 609 mb, up 60% from a year earlier, and indicative of a large amount of unsold U.S. soybeans yet on “current crop” 2014/15 – that (similar to corn markets) is likely to be a negative factor in U.S. soybean cash prices in coming months (absent a weather-related, negative set of U.S. soybean production factors in the summer of 2015).   Off-Farm Commercial Storage of U.S. soybeans is estimated to be 725 mb, up 18% from a year earlier, also indicative along with On-farm storage amounts, and a negative outlook for U.S. soybean prices this summer.

Market Implications => At face value, this report is “moderately supportive” for U.S. soybean markets, with marginally lower than expected March 1st U.S. soybean stocks, and marginally higher than expected Dec-Feb 2015 usage.  Although soybean market prices are relatively low compared to recent years, these numbers support the idea that lower prices have supported soybean usage during Dec-Feb 2015.

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The Smoky Hill River near Salina in Central Kansas (Source: http://www.kansastravel.org/kansastravelblog/1206.htm)

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The Smoky Hill River Valley and the Historic Smoky Hill Trail in Western Kansas (Source: http://historum.com/american-history/19145-howard-raynesford-smoky-hill-trail-4.html)

KSU “Quick Analysis of the Numbers” of the 3/31/2015 USDA Prospective Plantings Report

Today on March 31, 2015 the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2015 Prospective Plantings Report and its March 1, 2015 Quarterly Stocks Report.  There were a number of market surprises in the Prospective Plantings report, including:

1) larger than expected 2015 U.S. corn plantings (89.199 million acres – up 468,000 acres from prereport expectations, but still down 1.398 mln ac. from last year),

2) smaller than anticipated 2015 U.S. soybean plantings (84.635 mln. ac. – down 1.284 mln ac from prereport expectations but still up 934 mln ac. from a year ago),

3) larger than expected 2015 U.S. other spring wheat plantings (12.969 mln ac. – down 365,000 acres from prereport expectations, and down 56,000 acres from last year),

4) smaller than anticipated 2015 U.S. cotton plantings (9.549 mln ac. – down 280,000 acres from prereport expectations, and down 1.488 mln acres from a year earlier),

5) smaller than anticipated 2015 U.S. grain sorghum plantings (7.900 mln ac. – down 229,000 acres from prereport expectations, but still up 762,000 acres from a year earlier), and

6) larger than expected 2015 U.S. barley plantings (3.528 mln ac. – up 331,000 acres from prereport expectations, and up 553,000 acres from last year).

Total 2015 U.S. cropland and harvested hay and tobacco acres of approximately 378.5 million acres is projected to be a) down 2.9 million acres from 2014 (381.3 mln ac.), b) down 1.987 mln ac. from 2013 (380.4 mln ac.), and c) up 935,000 acres from the drought ravage year of 2012 (377.5 mln ac.).  Those skeptical about the results of this report in regards to U.S. corn (too high?), soybean (too low), grain sorghum (too low?), and spring wheat (too low?) planted acres will scrutinize the state-by-state changes projected in this report.  The margin of error projected by the USDA in this report leaves ample room for changes that may yet occur in these numbers – due to planting conditions, changing planting decisions by farmers, etc.

Following are the tables from a “Quick Analysis of the Numbers” of the USDA 2015 Prospective Plantings report that is available on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/) at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp

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The Great Kansas Outdoors (Source: http://www.kansashunting.com/)

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Looking ahead to USDA Planting Intention & Stocks reports on 3/31/2015

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, March 27th will be placed up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_03-27-15.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, March 27th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

Following are sections of the working notes prepared for the March 27th radio program:

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A sunset in Northwest Kansas (over a Center Pivot Irrigation System!) (Source: https://www.facebook.com/james.claassen.9/posts/10202471220247374)

U.S. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market-Profitability Graphics through 3/26/2015 (via KSU AgManager)

Following are some graphics on price and profitability trends in the U.S. ethanol and biodiesel industries, which will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website: http://www.agmanager.info/ An updated version of the full presentation titled “U.S. Ethanol & Biodiesel Market Situation” originally that was made for WILL (Illinois Public Radio) earlier this week, but updated here as of Thursday, March 26, 2015 and will be located at the KSU AgManager.info website – at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/Ethanol-Market_WILL-Radio_03-26-15.pdf                                                     Slide1 Slide2 Slide3 Slide4 Slide5 Slide6 Slide7 Slide8 Slide9 Slide10 Slide11 Slide12 Slide13 Slide14 Slide15 Slide16 Slide17 Slide18 Slide19 Slide1                                                        

A “big sky” sunset in Northwest Kansas (Source: https://www.facebook.com/claassenphotos?_rdr)

KSU Grain Market Outlook Presentation – Focus on Soybeans

A grain market outlook presentation was given to the Agricultural Economics 420 class taught by Sean Fox at Kansas State University.  Our focus was on a) drivers of U.S. feedgrain, wheat and soybean markets, b) understanding grain supply-demand balance sheets, and c) analyzing the relationship between “ending stocks-to-use” and prices. re

The web address for the overall presentation is as follows:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/GrainOutlook_AgEcon420_03-25-15.pdf

Following is the part of this presentation related to U.S. Soybean supply-demand and market outlook

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KSU Grain Market Outlook Presentation – Focus on Wheat

A grain market outlook presentation was given to the Agricultural Economics 420 class taught by Sean Fox at Kansas State University.  Our focus was on a) drivers of U.S. feedgrain, wheat and soybean markets, b) understanding grain supply-demand balance sheets, and c) analyzing the relationship between “ending stocks-to-use” and prices. re

The web address for the overall presentation is as follows:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/GrainOutlook_AgEcon420_03-25-15.pdf

Following is the part of this presentation related to U.S. Wheat supply-demand and market outlook, with soybeans to follow later.

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KSU Grain Market Outlook Presentation – Focus on Corn and Grain Sorghum

A grain market outlook presentation was given to the Agricultural Economics 420 class taught by Sean Fox at Kansas State University.  Our focus was on a) drivers of U.S. feedgrain, wheat and soybean markets, b) understanding grain supply-demand balance sheets, and c) analyzing the relationship between “ending stocks-to-use” and prices. re

The web address for the overall presentation is as follows:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/GrainOutlook_AgEcon420_03-25-15.pdf

Following is the part of this presentation related to U.S. Corn and Grain Sorghum supply-demand and market outlook, with wheat and soybeans to follow later.

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