KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Updated U.S. Corn and Wheat Supply-Demand and Price Scenarios for MY 2017/18

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, August 4, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_11-17-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, November 17, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the August 4th recording will be available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

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KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: U.S. Corn Supply-Demand, China Ethanol Policy, and Strong Sorghum Prices in Central KS

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, August 4, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_10-27-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, October 27, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the October 27th recording will be available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: USDA Grain Supply-Demand #s during Wheat Seeding and Fall Harvest

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, October 13, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_10-13-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, October 13, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the October 13th recording will be available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Heading toward delayed Wheat Seeding and Harvest in Kansas

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, October 6, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_10-06-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, October 6, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the August 4th recording will be available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

USDA Sept. 29th Small Grains 2017 Summary and Grain Stocks Reports “By the Numbers”

The September 29, 2017 USDA Small Grains Summary and Grain Stocks reports provided the following results:

A. U.S. Corn Results

  • U.S. Corn stocks on September 1, 2017 were projected to be 2.295 billion bushels – down from pre-report expectations of 2.353 bb.  Compared to recent years: U.S. corn stocks on September 1st (2.295 bb) were 32%-33% larger than on the same dates in 2015 & 2016, up 86% from 2014, and up 180% from 2013.
  • U.S. Corn Use in June-August 2017 of 2.930 billion bu. was up from implicit pre-report expectations of approximately 2.876 bb.   Compared to recent years: June-August 2017 U.S. corn use was down marginally from the same period in 2016 (2.970 bb – down 1%), but up 6%-16% from 2014-2015, up 35%-48% from 2012-2013, and up 12%-15% from 2010-2011.
  • Summary Thoughts: Relative to pre-report trade expectations, these results are at least marginally positive for U.S. corn supply-demand prospects, indicating that usage of U.S. corn for feed and possibly fuel ethanol were larger than the trade had expected.  Still, these are historically large levels of U.S. corn stocks for September 1st.  The existing “large supply – low price” scenario for U.S. corn heading into the 2017 harvest was not appreciably changed by these results.

B. U.S. Soybean Results

  • U.S. Soybean stocks on September 1, 2017 were projected to be 301 million bushels – down from pre-report expectations of 338 mb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. soybean stocks on September 1st (301 mb) were 53%-58% larger than on the same dates in 2015 & 2016, up 227% from 2014, and up 113% from 2013.
  • U.S. Soybean Use in June-August 2017 of 665 million bu. was up from implicit pre-report expectations of approximately 628 mb.  Compared to recent years: June-August 2017 U.S. soybean use was down marginally from the same period in 2016 (681 mb – down 2%), but up 49%-94% from 2014-2015, up 109% from 2013, and up 32%-63% from 2010-2012.
  • Summary Thoughts: Similar to U.S. corn, relative to pre-report trade expectations, these results are at least marginally positive for U.S. soybean supply-demand prospects, indicating that usage of U.S. soybeans for domestic crush and residual uses were larger than the trade had expected.  Still, these are also historically large levels of U.S. soybean stocks for September 1st.  The existing “large supply – low price” scenario for U.S. soybeans heading into the 2017 harvest was not appreciably changed by these results either.

C. U.S. Wheat Results

  • U.S. Wheat stocks on September 1, 2017 were projected to be 2.253 billion bushels – up from pre-report expectations of 2.205 bb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. wheat stocks on September 1st (2.253 bb) were down 11% from 2016, but were 7%-19% larger than on the same dates in 2013, 2014, & 2015.
  • U.S. Wheat Use in June-August 2017 of 668 million bu. was down 10%-11% from 2014-2016, down 26%-34% from 2012-2013, and down 7%-8% from 2010-2011.
  • Summary Thoughts: Relative to pre-report trade expectations, these results are negative for for U.S. wheat supply-demand prospects, indicating at a minimum that usage of U.S. wheat for domestic feed and residual uses were less than the trade had expected.  Also, these are also historically large levels of U.S. wheat stocks for September 1st.  The existing “large supply – low price” scenario for U.S. wheat heading into Fall-Winter 2017-2018 was supported by these results.

D. U.S. Grain Sorghum Results

  • U.S. Grain Sorghum stocks on September 1, 2017 were projected to be 34 million bushels – up from pre-report expectations of 28 mb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. grain sorghum stocks on September 1st (34 mb) were down 8% from 2016, were 89% larger than on the same date in 2015, and were 100%-107% of September 1st stocks in 2013-2014.
  • U.S. Grain Sorghum Use in June-August 2017 of 51 million bu. was down 6% from 2016, up 219% from 2015, down 12% from 2014, but up 42%-76% from 2012-2013.
  • Summary Thoughts: Relative to pre-report trade expectations, these results are negative for for U.S. grain sorghum supply-demand prospects, indicating at a minimum that usage of U.S. grain sorghum for domestic feed and residual uses were less than the trade had expected.  The existing “large supply – low price” scenario for U.S. grain sorghum and other feedgrains as a whole heading into Fall-Winter 2017-2018 was supported by these results.

E. U.S. Wheat Annual Small Grains Summary Results

  • U.S. All Wheat Production is projected to be 1.741 billion bushels – up  from pre-report expectations of 1.718 bb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. All Wheat Production is down 25% from 2016, and 14%-18% from 2013-2015.
  • U.S. Winter Wheat Production is projected to be 1.269 billion bushels – down from pre-report expectations of 1.287 bb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. Winter Wheat Production is down 24% from 2016, and 8%-18% from 2013-2015.
  • U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat Production is projected to be 750 million bushels – down from pre-report expectations of 758 mb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. HRW Wheat Production is down 31% from 2016, and down 10% to up 1% from 2013-2015.
  • U.S. Soft Red Winter (SRW) Wheat Production is projected to be 292 million bushels – down from pre-report expectations of 306 mb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. SRW Wheat Production is down 15% from 2016, and 19%-49% from 2013-2015.
  • U.S. White Winter Wheat Production is projected to be 230 million bushels – up from pre-report expectations of 230 mb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. White Winter Wheat Production is down 6% from 2016, and up 24%-25% from 2014-2015.
  • U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production is projected to be 416 million bushels – up from pre-report expectations of 402 mb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production is down 22% from 2016, and 22%-31% from 2013-2015.
  • U.S. Durum Wheat Production is projected to be 55 million bushels – up from pre-report expectations of 51 mb.   Compared to recent years: U.S. Durum Wheat Production is down 47% from 2016, and down 35% from 2015.

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Focus on Grain Sorghum and USDA Stocks/Small Grains Reports

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, September 29, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_09-29-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, September 29, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the August 4th recording will be available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

U.S. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market-Profitability Graphics through 9/26/2017

Following are some graphics on price and profitability trends in the U.S. ethanol and biodiesel industries, which is available on the KSU AgManager website at the following webaddress:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter

The full presentation titled “U.S. Ethanol & Biodiesel Market Situation” was made in support of a bioenergy market update presented on WILL (Illinois Public Radio) on Tuesday, September 26, 2017.