KSU Corn Market Outlook in Mid-May 2017: Considering Acreage, Yield and Production Scenarios

This article provides an analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and price prospects for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year following the USDA’s May 10, 2017 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in Mid-May 2017″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter

 

******

Summary

Overview

Since the USDA’s May 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, JULY 2017 CME corn futures have been moderately volatile – moving both higher and lower within the range of $3.65 ¼ to $3.74.  “Current” MY 2016/17 U.S. corn prices have found some support due to 2017 production uncertainties (i.e., wet soils impacting corn planting & establishment in some regions and varying weather forecasts for summer 2017) and strong U.S. corn use in ethanol production, wet corn milling, exports and to a moderate degree in livestock feeding.

In addition, in the March 31st Prospective Plantings report the USDA forecast fewer U.S. corn planted acres in 2017.  If in 2017 there is a return to trend line U.S. corn yields near 167-168 bu/acre, then 170 bu/acre in 2017, then 2017 U.S. corn production could be in the range of 13.500 to 13.750 billion bushels (bb) instead of the USDA projection of 14.065 bb or the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.

Forecasts by the USDA and other market analysts that ending stocks of U.S. corn will stay above 2 bb in “next crop” MY 2017/18, coupled with ending stocks-to-use above 14.5%-15.0% in both “current” MY 2016/17 and “next crop” MY 2017/18 has limited any significant corn futures or cash market price rallies to date in Spring 2017.   IF excessive moisture conditions that have developed in the U.S. Corn Belt in late April – mid-May were to continue until late-May and significantly delay planting progress – THEN increased concerns about 2017 U.S. corn production prospects could lead to higher U.S. corn prices in late-Spring – Summer 2017.

Kansas Cash Corn Bids & Basis as of May 17, 2017

Cash corn bids at major grain elevators ranged from $3.07 ($0.65 under JULY futures) to $3.62 ($0.10 under) in Western Kansas and $2.98 ($0.73 under) to $3.31 ½ ($0.40 under) in Central Kansas on Wednesday, May 17th.  This represents a marked increase since October-December 2016 when corn price bids statewide had fallen below $3.00 per bushel – down to $2.66-$2.96 on December 23rd – although not as low as marketing loan rates near $2.05 (central KS) to $2.19 (western KS) per bushel.  Cash corn price bids in east central and northeast Kansas – near river terminal locations – were near $3.48 ½ – $3.51 ½ on May 17th, up from the range of $3.26-$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016.  Cash corn bids at Kansas ethanol plants on May 17th ranged from $3.47 ¾ ($0.20 under) to $4.02 ¾ ($0.35 over) – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand for corn in Kansas and nationwide.

While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that corn usage has not declined, and that Kansas cash corn prices have enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.

Other Factors that Could Affect the Corn Market in 2017

  • First, the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early-spring and some into summer 2017.
  • Second, anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding through spring-summer 2017.
  • Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – at least until what is forecast to be a sizable 2nd crop of corn from South America becomes available on global markets during Summer 2017.
  • And fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017.  World geo-political events have the potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate depending on which countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.

USDA Supply-Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

Early USDA projections are for 2017 U.S. corn plantings of 89.996 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.0 ma).   Harvested acres of approximately 82.4 ma (down 4.35 ma) are forecast, with projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), leading to a 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast of 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.

The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.410 bb – down 530 mb from last year’s record high.  Total use is forecast at 14.300 bb – down 345 mb from last year’s record high.  Ending stocks are projected to be 2.110 bb (14.76% S/U) – down from 2.295 bb (15.67% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17.  United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.40 /bu (range of $3.00-$3.80).  This equals the midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu from “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 45% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.

Alternative KSU Supply-Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18.  Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than projected by the USDA in the May 10, 2017 WASDE report for “next crop” MY 2017/18.

  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.556 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.556 bb production, 15.901 bb total supplies, 14.255 bb total use, 1.646 bb ending stocks, 11.55% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;
  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.370 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.370 bb production, 15.715 bb total supplies, 14.155 bb total use, 1.560 bb ending stocks, 11.02% S/U, & $4.10 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;
  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.155 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 80.535 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.080 bb production, 14.375 bb total supplies, 13.460 bb total use, 915 million bushels (mb) ending stocks, 6.80% S/U, & $6.00 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;

World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

World corn production of 1,033.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down 3.0% from the record high of 1,065.1 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.8% from 968.1 mmt in MY 2015/16.  Near record World corn total supplies of 1,257.6 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down marginally from the record high of 1,278.1 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,177.5 mmt in MY 2015/16.

World corn exports of a near record 151.9 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down 4.2% from the record high of 158.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 26.6% from 119.95 mmt in MY 2015/16.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 195.3 mmt (18.4% S/U) in “next crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 223.9 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17, and from 212.4 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16.

Strong World demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico, Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine).   An ongoing, strong demand base for corn could help cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any serious threats emerge to the 2017 U.S. corn crop.

“Deep Numbers” Analysis of the May 10, 2017 USDA WASDE Report (D. O’Brien KSU)

A “deep numbers” analysis of the results of the May 10, 2017 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is available on the Agmanager.info website from Kansas State University. The May WASDE report considered “next crop” 2017/18 marketing year, “current” MY 2016/17, and MY 2015/16 supply-demand and price prospects for U.S. crops, and supply-demand prospects for global and country-by-country analysis.

Results are available at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/wasde-quick-analysis-spreadsheet

This “deep numbers” analysis considers how the May 10th USDA WASDE and other National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) numbers compare to pre-report trade expectations, last month’s report estimates, and previous years.

World Wheat, Corn, Coarse Grain and Soybean supply demand numbers are also considered in an extended look at production, exports, imports, food-industrial and seed use (for corn and coarse grains), food use (for wheat), crush (soybeans), feed and residual use (corn, coarse grains and wheat), ending stocks, and % ending stocks to use.

Selections from this “deep numbers” WASDE report analysis are as follows:

 

KSU Corn Market Outlook in Early-May: Alternative Crop Production and Price Scenarios for MY 2017/18

This article provides an analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and price prospects for both the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year following the USDA’s April 11, 2017 USDA Crop Production and https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf reports.

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in Early-May 2017″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter/corn-market-outlook-early-may-2017

******

Summary

Overview & Summary

Since the USDA’s April 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, MAY 2017 CME corn futures have been moderately volatile – moving both higher and lower within the range of $3.54 ¼ to $3.73.  “Current” MY 2016/17 U.S. corn prices have found some support at levels above local marketing loan rates because of the positive impact that low prices have had on the use of U.S. corn in ethanol production, wet corn milling, exports and to a moderate degree in livestock feeding.   In addition, the February 23-24 USDA 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum together with the March 31st Prospective Plantings report have forecast fewer U.S. corn planted acres in 2017, and with a return to trend line U.S. corn yields, lower 2017 U.S. corn production of 14.065 billion bushels (bb) versus the record highs of 15.148 bb in 2016.

However, projections of ending stocks of U.S. corn staying above 2 billion bushels (bb) coupled with ending stocks-to-use above 15% in both “current” MY 2016/17 and “next crop” MY 2017/18 has limited any significant corn futures or cash market price rallies to date in Spring 2017.   IF excessive moisture conditions that have developed in the U.S. Corn Belt in late April – very early May were to continue until mid-May and significantly delay planting progress – THEN increased concerns about 2017 U.S. corn production prospects could lead to higher U.S. corn prices in late-Spring – Summer 2017.

Cash corn prices at major grain elevators in central and western Kansas ranged from $3.04 to $3.31 on Monday, May 1st.  This represents a marked increase since October-December 2016 when prices had fallen below $3.00 per bushel – down to $2.66-$2.96 on December 23rd – although not as low as marketing loan rates near $2.05 (central KS) to $2.19 (western KS) per bushel.  Cash corn prices in east central and northeast Kansas – near river terminal locations – were near $3.55 on May 1st, up from the range of $3.26-$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016.  Cash corn prices at Kansas ethanol plants on May 1st ranged from $3.38 to $3.73 – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand in Kansas and nationwide.  While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that corn usage has not declined, and that Kansas cash corn prices have enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.

Other Factors Potentially Affecting the U.S. Corn Market

Other factors that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2017 include the following:

  • First, the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017.
  • Second, anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding through spring-summer 2017.
  • Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – at least until what is forecast to be a sizable 2nd crop of corn from South America becomes available on global markets during Summer 2017.
  • Fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017.  World geo-political events have the potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate depending on which countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn plantings of 89.996 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.0 ma).   Harvested acres of approximately 82.4 ma (down 4.35 ma) are forecast, with projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), leading to a 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.

The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.435 bb – down 505 mb from last year’s record high.  Total use is forecast at 14.220 bb – down 400 mb from last year’s record high.  Ending stocks are projected to be 2.215 bb (15.58% S/U) – down from 2.320 bb (15.87% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17.  United States’ corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu from “current” MY 2016/17 – but within the range of $3.25-$3.55 /bu for this marketing year. This scenario is given a 55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.

Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18.  Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23-24, 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18.

  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.556 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.556 bb production, 15.926 bb total supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.741 bb ending stocks, 12.27% S/U, & $3.85 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;
  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.370 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.370 bb production, 15.740 bb total supplies, 14.080 bb total use, 1.660 bb ending stocks, 11.21% S/U, & $4.05 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;
  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.155 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.155 bb production, 14.525 bb total supplies, 13.460 bb total use, 1.065 bb ending stocks, 7.91% S/U, & $4.75 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;

World Corn Supply-Demand

Record high World corn production of 1,053.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 9.4% from 963.3 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 3.7% from 1,016.0 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Record high World corn total supplies of 1,265.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up from 1,173.1 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.8 mmt in MY 2014/15.

World corn exports of 154.4 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 28.7% from 120.0 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 8.6% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Projected record high World corn ending stocks of 223.0 mmt (21.4% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 211.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.

  • Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 223.0 mmt, World corn percent ending stocks-to-use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.4%.  Strong World demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico, Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine).   An ongoing, strong demand base for corn could help cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any serious threats emerge to the 2017 U.S. corn crop.

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Pre-Report Trade Estimates for March 31st Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, March 31, 2016 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_03-31-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, March 31st on the K-State Radio Network (here) – with the program available to listen to online.  After the program airs, a recording can also be listened to from the KSU AgManager.info website via a link  in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 S-D and Price Scenarios for U.S. Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the Grain Market Update to played on Friday, March 24, 2017 on the KSU Agriculture Today Radio program are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_03-24-17_0.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, March 24th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – with the program available to listen to online.  After the program airs, a recording can also be listened to from the KSU AgManager.info website via a link  in the “News” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news

 

KSU Corn Market Outlook in Early March 2017: Looking Ahead to “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

An analysis of U.S. and World Corn supply-demand factors and “Next Crop” 2017/18 Marketing Year supply-demand and price prospects is provided in the following article summary.  This information follows the USDA’s February 23-24, 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum, as well as USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on February 9, 2017.  A full version of this article is available on the KSU AgManager website:  http://www.agmanager.info

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in Early March 2017″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address:

KSU Grain Market Outlook Newsletter

**************

Summary

Overview

Since the USDA’s February 9th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, MAY 2017 CME corn futures have been volatile – moving both higher and lower within the range of $3.67 ¼ to $3.87 ¼.  The February 23-24, 2017 USDA 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast of lower 2017 U.S. corn production of 14.065 billion bushels (bb) and a moderate reduction in “next crop” 2017/18 marketing year ending stocks of 2.215 bb have provided moderate support for the U.S. corn market.

Cash corn prices in at major grain elevators in central and western Kansas ranged from $3.04 to $3.28 on Tuesday, March 1st.  This represents a marked increase since October-December 2016 when prices had fallen below $3.00 per bushel – down to $2.66-$2.96 on December 23rd – although not as low as marketing loan rates near $2.05 (central KS) to $2.19 (western KS) per bushel.  Cash corn prices in east central and northeast Kansas – near river terminal locations – were $3.55 on March 1st, up from the range of $3.26-$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016.  While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive sign that corn usage has provided support for prices.  Kansas cash corn prices on have increased since late December, having avoided falling down to USDA loan rate – price support levels through the recent fall and winter months.

Other Market Factors in 2017

Other factors that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2017 include the following.

First, the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017.

Second, anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding through spring-summer 2017.

Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – driven partly by the availability of exportable corn supplies from South America through spring 2017.

And fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017.  World geo-political events could provide an unanticipated “shock” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18.  

With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn plantings of 90.000 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.004 ma), harvested acres of 82.400 ma (down 4.348 ma), projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.  

The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 16.435 bb – down 505 mb from last year’s record high).  Total use is forecast at 14.220 bb – down 400 mb from last year’s record high.  Ending stocks are projected to be 2.215 bb (15.58% S/U) – down from 2.320 bb (15.87% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17.  United States’ corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu from a year ago – but within the range of $3.20-$3.60 /bu for “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.

Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18.  Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of alternative, lower U.S. corn yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23-24, 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18. 

KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.786 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes: 90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.786 bb production, 16.156 bb total supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.971 bb ending stocks, 13.89% S/U, & $3.65 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18; 

KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.596 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes: 90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.596 bb production, 15.966 bb total supplies, 14.080 bb total use, 1.886 bb ending stocks, 13.39% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;

KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.360 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 90.000 ma planted, 82.300 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.3605 bb production, 14.680 bb total supplies, 13.460 bb total use, 1.220 bb ending stocks, 8.92% S/U, & $4.55 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;

World Corn Supply-Demand:

Record high World corn production of 1,040.2 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 8.3% from 960.7 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 2.4% from 1,015.6 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Record high World corn total supplies of 1,250.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up from 1,170.5 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.3 mmt in MY 2014/15. 

World corn exports of 149.0 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 23.0% from 121.1 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 4.8% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Projected record high World corn ending stocks of 217.6 mmt (21.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 210.4 mmt (21.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.  

Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 217.6 mmt, World corn percent ending stocks-to-use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.1%.  Strong World demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico, Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine).   Ongoing, strong demand could cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any threats to the 2017 U.S. crop emerge.

slide1 slide2 slide3 slide4 slide5 slide6 slide7 slide8 slide9 slide10 slide11 slide12 slide13 slide14 slide15 slide16 slide17

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: “Grinding” Thru February in the U.S. on the way to Spring Planting

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, February 17, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address:

https://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_02-17-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, February 17 on the K-State Radio Network (here) – with the program available to listen to online.  After the program airs, a recording can also be listened to from the KSU AgManager.info website via a link  in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

slide1 slide2 slide3 slide4 slide5 slide6 slide7 slide8 slide9 slide10 slide11 slide12 slide13 slide14