KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Crop Weather Issues in South America and U.S. Winter Wheat Areas

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, February 16, 2018 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_02-16-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, February 16, 2018 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the June 16th recording is available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

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KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Grain Exports (TPP) and KS Grain Basis Trends

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, January 26, 2018 is available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_01-26-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, January 26, 2018 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the January 26th recording is available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

2018 Soybean Market Situation & Outlook – Salina, KS on January 23, 2018

Following are the slides from a presentation on “Soybean Market Outlook in 2018” presented to 150 people at a “Kansas Soybean School” in Salina, Kansas held on January 23, 2018.   The workshop was sponsored by the Kansas Soybean Commission (http://kansassoybeans.org/) and K-State Research and Extension.

Following are the slides and key points presented by Extension Agricultural Economist Daniel O’Brien of the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University titled “Soybean Market Outlook in 2018“.  This presentation is available on the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/presentations

 

 

Corn and Grain Sorghum Market Situation & Outlook – Amarillo, Texas on January 24, 2018

Following are the slides from a presentation on “Feedgrain Market Outlook in 2018” presented by teleconference to a “Feedgrain Marketing Plan Workshop” in Amarillo, Texas held on January 23-24, 2018.   The workshop was sponsored by Texas Agri-Life Extension.

Following are the slides and key points presented by Extension Agricultural Economist Daniel O’Brien of the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University titled on “Feedgrain Market Outlook in 2018”.  This presentation will also be available on the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/presentations

 

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Post-WASDE Attention to La Nina Prospects for 2018

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, January 19, 2018 is available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_01-19-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, January 19, 2018 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the January 19th recording will also available at the KSU Agriculture Today website after the program is aired.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

“Start Up” Status of the Variable Storage Rate (VSR) for Kansas City HRW Wheat Futures

Variable Storage Rate or “VSR” calculations for the CME Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat futures contract have begun.  The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) provides an ongoing daily record of how VSR calculations are progressing for the MARCH 2018 to MAY 2018 futures contract spread in comparison to what the CME calculates to be “Financial Full Carry” for wheat in storage.

Following is a statement from the CME regarding the Variable Storage Rate mechanism and its application:

“The Exchange will implement the VSR mechanism with an initial observation period beginning on December 19, 2017 and ending on February 23, 2018, evaluating the 2018 March – May KC HRW Wheat calendar spread relative to financial full carry with any changes to the storage rate effective on March 18, 2018. The storage rate will remain at 19.7/100s of one cent per bushel per day until the VSR mechanism triggers a change to the storage rate, at which point the storage rate will become either 16.5/100s of one cent per bushel per day if the storage rate is triggered down or 26.5/100s of one cent per bushel per day if the storage rate is triggered up. The seasonal storage rate currently in place for the Contracts will be suspended in lieu of the VSR mechanism, meaning the rate of 19.7/100s of one cent per bushel per day will remain in place until triggered up or down by the VSR mechanism.”

These VSR Calculations for both Kansas City HRW Wheat futures and Chicago Wheat futures are available a the following web address:

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/variable-storage-rate.html

These preliminary VSR calculations with the MARCH-MAY 2018 KC HRW Wheat futures spread running at an average of 90.40% of Financial Full Carry for the December 19, 2017 through January 4, 2018 period would indicate that the CME will be increasing its storage rate used in the VSR calculation. Of course, the long term average through February 23, 2018 will provide the final determination of whether such changes are made.

This potential storage rate increase would be from the starting value of $0.00197 /bu/day ($0.0591 /bu/30 days) up to $0.00265 /bu/day ($0.0795 /bu/30 days) for the March-May 2018 period on wheat delivered against the MARCH 2018 CME KC HRW Wheat futures contract.

Note that the CME Chicago Wheat futures carrying charge is currently at $0.00365 /bu/day ($0.1095 /bu/30 days), and that the running average percent of full carry for Chicago wheat is only 51.42% for the same period.

Following are the KC HRW Wheat futures VSR calculations for through Thursday, January 4, 2018 with added formatting from Kansas State University Extension Agricultural Economics:

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Watching Crop Weather Trends in January & Seeds of a Wheat Market Turnaround

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, January 5, 2018 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_01-05-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, January 5, 2018 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the August 4th recording will be available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…