2016 KSU Risk and Profit Conference – Corn Market Outlook (Bill Tierney – AgResource)

The Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics held is 2016 Risk and Profit Conference on Thursday-Friday, August 18-19, 2016 in Manhattan, Kansas.

Following are parts of the presentation by Bill Tierney, Chief Economist at AgResource, Chicago, Illinois titled A Long-Term View of Crop Prices: The Landscape Has Changed for US Crop Ag“.  

Following is Bill Tierney bio info:

Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr. PhD, is the Chief Economist for AgResource Company (Chicago). He joined the firm in October 2011. He has over 35 years of experience as an agricultural economist primarily in the area of
global crop market analysis. For 20 years Bill was a Professor in the Department of Ag Economics at Kansas State University. From 2003-2006, Bill served as the USDA’s Principal Grains Economist. In that capacity, Bill was in charge of the USDA’s monthly supply/demand projections and price forecasts for wheat and feed grains.
Other positions that Bill has held include: (1) Exec VP for Research for a national brokerage firm that served mostly US ethanol plants; (2) Head of North American Research for an international agribusiness consulting firm; (3) General Manager of Doane Advisory Services; and (4) Senior Ag Analyst for a Cargill commodity hedge fund. Just prior to joining AgResource, Bill served in Iraq for a year as a senior agricultural advisor for the US government. Bill is a graduate of Michigan State University and the University of Missouri.

This presentation was given on Friday, August 19th in the morning session.

Here is the part of that presentation focusing on Long Term Corn Market Outlook

Long Term Corn Market Outlook (Tierney – AgResource)

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2016 KSU Risk and Profit Conference – Long Term Grain Market Overview (Bill Tierney – AgResource)

The Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics held is 2016 Risk and Profit Conference on Thursday-Friday, August 18-19, 2016 in Manhattan, Kansas.

Following are parts of the presentation by Bill Tierney, Chief Economist at AgResource, Chicago, Illinois titled A Long-Term View of Crop Prices: The Landscape Has Changed for US Crop Ag“.  

Following is Bill Tierney bio info:

Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr. PhD, is the Chief Economist for AgResource Company (Chicago). He joined the firm in October 2011. He has over 35 years of experience as an agricultural economist primarily in the area of
global crop market analysis. For 20 years Bill was a Professor in the Department of Ag Economics at Kansas State University. From 2003-2006, Bill served as the USDA’s Principal Grains Economist. In that capacity, Bill was in charge of the USDA’s monthly supply/demand projections and price forecasts for wheat and feed grains.
Other positions that Bill has held include: (1) Exec VP for Research for a national brokerage firm that served mostly US ethanol plants; (2) Head of North American Research for an international agribusiness consulting firm; (3) General Manager of Doane Advisory Services; and (4) Senior Ag Analyst for a Cargill commodity hedge fund. Just prior to joining AgResource, Bill served in Iraq for a year as a senior agricultural advisor for the US government. Bill is a graduate of Michigan State University and the University of Missouri.

This presentation was given on Friday, August 19th in the morning session.

Here is the part of that presentation focusing on Long Term Overall Perspective

Overall Crop Market Perspectives – Long Term

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2016 KSU Risk and Profit Conference – Soybean Market Outlook

The Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics held is 2016 Risk and Profit Conference on Thursday-Friday, August 18-19, 2016 in Manhattan, Kansas.

Following are parts of the “Grain Market Outlook & Strategies for 2016-2017” presentation given by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist Daniel O’Brien on Friday, August 19th in the afternoon session.

Here is the part of that presentation focusing on:

Soybean Market Outlook

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KSU 2016 Risk and Profit Conference Grain Outlook – Wheat Market Outlook

The Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics held its 2016 Risk and Profit Conference on Thursday-Friday, August 18-19, 2016 in Manhattan, Kansas.

Following are parts of the “Grain Market Outlook & Strategies for 2016-2017” presentation given by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist Daniel O’Brien on Friday, August 19th in the afternoon session.

Here is the part of that presentation focusing on U.S. and World wheat market outlook.

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KSU Soybean Market Outlook: Price Prospects as of Late June 2016

An analysis of U.S. and World soybean supply-demand factors and June-Dec 2016 and early-mid 2017 price prospects following the USDA’s June 10th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports and the market actions that have followed them – available on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary – with the full analysis-article for soybeans to be found at this web location:  http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Soybeans.asp

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Summary

Recent Soybean Futures Price Action

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on June 10th, soybean futures prices have declined.  Since March 2, 2016 when CME JULY 2016 soybean futures prices closed at $8.67 ¾, prices have trended upward to a high of $12.08 ½ on the day of the release of the June 10th WASDE report – closing at $11.78 ¼ that same day.  Since then, CME JULY 2016 soybeans declined to $10.99 ¼ on Friday, June 24th before closing at $11.03 /bu that same day.

Soybean Market Perspective

Since 2014, World soybean market prices have been limited by an ongoing “large crop – low price” regime, caused by consecutive record World soybean production years for 2014 and 2015, with another record crop projected for 2016 in South America and the United States.  However, in March-early June 2016, significant soybean production problems have occurred in key South American production areas such in Argentina and parts of Brazil – along with a heightening of trade concerns about summer 2016 weather conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt.   These emerging World soybean production concerns have helped to strengthen U.S. soybean export trade in the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year (ending August 31, 2016) and improved the outlook for U.S. soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2016 (starting September 1, 2016).

Longer term, from MY 2008/09 to projected “new crop” MY 2016/17, the USDA forecasts a strong upward trend in World soybean production (up 6.6% annually) which will have “out-paced” the increase in World soybean use (up 5.9% per year) if it holds true.  However, the shortfall in South American’s soybean production in “current” MY 2015/16 has at least temporarily interrupted these trends, and has caused projected World soybean ending stocks and percent ending stocks-to-use to fall since MY 2014/15.  As this trend toward larger supplies has “abated” in “current” MY 2015/16 and for projected “new crop” MY 2016/17, U.S. and World soybean prices have received at least moderate support.  These trends are illustrated in that since World soybean ending stocks of 62.0 mmt (22.5% %S/U) in MY 2013/14, stocks grew sharply in MY 2014/15 to 78.3 mmt (25.9% S/U), but have since declined to an estimate of 72.3 mmt (22.7% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16, and are forecast to decline further to 66.3 mmt (20.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17.

Key Market Issue to Address for Remainder of 2016

A key World soybean market issue will be to determine whether weather or disease problems end up driving U.S. soybean production low enough to alter the existing “large supply – buyer’s market” situation that has existed in U.S. and World soybean markets in recent years, or if a large 2016 U.S. soybean crop will “rectify” this short run trend toward lower World soybean ending stocks and lead to a re-establishment of the “large supply – low price” situation in fall 2016 that had existed during the 2014-2015 time period.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast of “Current” MY 2015/16

As usual at this time in the marketing year, the USDA maintained its forecast 2015 U.S. soybean production of a record 3.929 billion bushels (bb) – up marginally from 3.927 bb in 2014.  For “current” 2015/16, USDA projected U.S. total supplies at a record 4.150 bb (vs 4.052 bb in MY 2014/15), domestic crush at 1.890 bb (up 10 mb from May and 20 mb from April), exports at 1.760 bb (up 20 mb from May and 70 mb from March – but still down from the existing record 1.843 bb in “current” MY 2014/15), total use at 3.780 bb (up 30 mb from May – but less than the record of 3.862 bb in MY 2014/15), and ending stocks at a 9-year high of 370 mb (down 30 mb from May, and 75 mb from April, but still up from 191 million bushels or ‘mb’ in MY 2014/15, and from 92 mb in MY 2013/14).

Ending stocks-to-use are projected at 9.79% – down from 10.67% in May and 12.01% in April, but still up dramatically from 4.95% in MY 2014/15, and the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14.  The USDA forecast “current” MY 2015/16 U.S. soybean average prices to be $9.05 /bu – up $0.15 from May, but still down from $10.10 in MY 2014/15, $13.00 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

The USDA projected 2016 U.S. soybean plantings of 82.236 million acres (ma) – down 414,000 acres from 2015.  Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 81.370 ma is calculated from projections of production and average yields, and is down 479,000 acres vs 2015.  With projected yields of 46.7 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. soybean production is projected to be 3.800 bb – 3rd highest on record behind 3.927 bb in 2014 and 3.929 bb in 2015.   With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 3.940 bb (a new record high ahead of 3.862 bb in MY 2014/15), and projected ending stocks of 260 mb (6.60% S/U), U.S. soybean prices are estimated by the USDA to be in the range of $8.75-$10.25 (midpoint = $9.50 /bu) – down from the $9.05 /bu in “current” MY 2015/16 and $10.10 in MY 2014/15.  This USDA projection is thought to have a 35% probability of occurring in the judgment of Kansas State University Extension.

KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. soybean supply-demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.000 ma upward adjustment in 2016 U.S. soybean planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings and the June 10th WASDE reports.

A) KSU “Higher Acres – Trend Yield” Scenario (30% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 83.236 ma planted, 82.242 ma harvested, 45.85 bu/ac trend yield, 3.771 bb production, 4.171 bb total supplies, 3.915 bb total use, 256 mb ending stocks, 6.54% S/U, & $10.25 /bu U.S. soybean average price;

B) KSU “Higher Acres – Moderate Drought” (20% prob.) assumes 83.236 ma planted, 82.242 ma harvested, 44.0 bu/ac yield, 3.619 bb production, 4.019 bb total supplies, 3.801 bb total use, 218 mb ending stocks, 5.74% S/U, & $10.75 /bu U.S. soybean price; and

C) KSU “Higher Acres & Serious Drought” (15% prob.) assumes 83.236 ma planted, 82.242 ma harvested, 39.0 bu/ac yield, 3.207 bb production, 3.607 bb total supplies, 3.436 bb total use, 171 mb ending stocks, 4.98% S/U, & $11.50 /bu U.S. soybean price.

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KSU Wheat Market Outlook in Mid June 2016 – Assessing “New Crop” Market Possibilities during U.S. HRW Wheat Harvest

An analysis of U.S. and World wheat supply-demand factors and 2016-2017 price prospects following the USDA’s June 10th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports, and the market actions that have followed those reports will be available on the KSU AgManager website on Wednesday, June 22, 2016 (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary – with the full analysis-article for Wheat to be found at this web location:  http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Wheat.asp

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Summary

Overview

Since the USDA’s June 10th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, U.S. and World wheat market prices have fallen sharply – especially as the U.S. hard red winter wheat harvest has advanced.

For the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year the USDA projected:

1) World wheat total supplies of 973.8 mmt and total use of 716.0 mmt – both at record high levels,

2) that at least marginally weaker trade continues in World wheat exports with 165.7 mmt in the “new” marketing year – down from 168.3 mmt last year, but up from 164.1 mmt two years ago,

3) World wheat ending stocks at a record high 257.8 mmt compared to 243.0 mmt last year, and 216.5 mmt two years ago, and

4) World wheat percent ending stocks-to-use of 36.0% – up from 34.3% last year and from 30.7% two years ago – up to their highest level in 15 years (since MY 2001/02).

For a perspective on how historically large World wheat stocks and percent stocks-to-use are, the 34-year low in World wheat ending stocks of 128.7 mmt and at least a 57-year low in percent ending stocks-to-use of 20.9% S/U both occurred in MY 2007/08, the last major World wheat “short crop” marketing year.  The “large crop-over supply” situation that exists in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on World wheat prices.

It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly in spring-summer 2016.  Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate – although it has been weakening recently – also is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, resulting in higher U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks-to-use, and is consequently causing U.S. wheat prices to fall sharply.

USDA U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Old Crop” MY 2015/16

The USDA made minor changes in its supply-demand and price projections for U.S. wheat in the “old crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion bushels (bb) production, 2.921 bb total supplies (down 3 mb on reduced imports), 960 million bushels (mb) of food use, 775 mb of exports (down 5 mb), 140 mb of feed use, 1.941 bb of total use (down 5 mb), 980 mb ending stocks (up 2 mb), and 50.49% ending-stocks-to-use (up from 50.24% in May to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10).  The USDA forecast of “old crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. average wheat prices to be $4.90 /bu – the lowest U.S. wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10 when U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use was 48.58%.

USDA U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 49.559 million acres (ma) – down 5.085 ma from 2015.  The USDA also implicitly forecast 2016 harvested acres of 42.737 ma which would be down 4.357 ma (-9.25%) vs 2015.  Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 48.6 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.077 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with total supplies of 3.182 bb (up from 2.921 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16), and total use of 2.132 bb (up from 1.941 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16).

Given these numbers, the USDA projected “new crop” MY 2016/17 ending stocks of 1.050 bb (vs 980 mb a year ago), with percent ending stocks-to-use of 49.25% S/U (vs 50.49% last year).  U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $3.60 to $4.40 (midpoint = $4.00 /bu) – down from $4.90 /bu in “old crop” MY 2015/16.   It is assumed by Kansas State University that these USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2016/17 have a 35% probability of occurring.

KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply-demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming the same 2016 planted acreage as USDA.  However, based on historical U.S. percent harvested-to-planted acreage relationships, these KSU projections assumed 1.000 million less acres harvested than the implicit USDA estimate.  These KSU projections also assume at least a moderation in the high value of the U.S. dollar, and some improvement in U.S. wheat exports as a result.

A) KSU “Trend Yield – Moderate $USD” Scenario (30% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.025 bb total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.079 bb total use, 946 mb ending stocks, 45.50% S/U, & $4.40 /bu U.S. wheat average price;

B) KSU “Trend Yield – Foreign Crop Problems – Moderate $USD” Scenario (15% probability) assumes: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.025 bb total supplies, 1.100 bb exports, 2.329 bb total use, 696 mb ending stocks, 29.88% S/U, & $5.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price;  and

C) KSU “Trend Yield – Fall 2017 Crop Problems – Moderate $USD” (20% prob.) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.025 bb total supplies, 1,000 mb exports, 2.229 bb total use, 796 mb ending stocks, 35.71% S/U, & $5.10 /bu U.S. wheat average price.

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KSU Corn Market Outlook in Mid June 2016: “Sizing Up” Corn Market Possibilities in 2016

This article provides an analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and price prospects for both the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year following the USDA’s June 10, 2016 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in Mid June 2016″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Corn.asp

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Summary

Market Overview

Since the USDA’s June 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, JULY 2016 CME corn futures have trended sideways – trading in a range of $4.20-$4.39 per bushel and closing at $4.21 ¼ on June 20th.  Although the USDA has forecast a fourth consecutive large U.S. corn crop in the 13.6 to 14.4 billion bushel (bb) range for 2016 along with sizable foreign coarse grain crops in the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year, corn futures have risen above $4.00 in May-June 2016 due to a) significant corn production problems in Brazil (too dry in spots) resulting in higher domestic Brazilian prices and reduced export prospects, b) larger than expected U.S. corn domestic usage in response to low U.S. and World corn prices during January-early June, and c) worries about meterologist’s forecasts of hot weather during late June – August 2016 that could damage 2016 U.S. corn production prospects.

The 2016 USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on June 30th will provide updated projections of 2016 U.S. corn  planted and harvested acres, and may be a source of volatility for U.S. corn markets if results vary markedly from pre-report market expectations.

Other Factors that Could Affect the Corn Market

Other market factors to consider that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2016 include: 1) declining U.S. farmer resistance to selling 2015 crop corn at lower than hoped for 2016 cash corn prices to-date as both winter wheat or fall crop harvests approach requiring both commercial and on-farm storage space, 2) continued stronger-than-anticipated use of 2015 crop U.S. corn in ethanol production, livestock feeding or exports resulting from low U.S. feedgrain prices and moderating U.S. dollar values (exports), and 3) the possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets – such as unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve affecting U.S. interest rates, or crucial foreign economic occurrences such as the European Union vote on British membership.

For the early part of “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high value of the U.S. dollar and prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop were significant limiting factors for U.S. corn exports – although developing crop problems in Brazil and declines in the value of U.S. dollar since early February 2016 have coincided with improved U.S. corn exports in May-June 2016.

USDA Supply-Demand & Prices for “Current” MY 2015/16

The USDA made several changes to the U.S. corn supply-demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16.  While the estimate of 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 billion bushels (bb) was unchanged, and total supplies of 15.392 bb for MY 2015/16 were up 5 million bushels or ‘mb’ due to increased imports.  Total use is projected to be 13.685 bb – up 100 million bushels (mb) due to a 100 mb increase in projected exports – up to 1.825 bb.  Ethanol use (5.250 bb), non-ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use (1.360 bb), and feed and residual use (5.250 bb) were all unchanged.

Ending stocks are forecast to be down 95 mb to 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 – down from 1.731 bb (12.59% S/U) in MY 2014/15, but up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14.  U.S. corn average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.60-$3.80 /bu. ($3.70 midpoint) versus $3.70 in MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

The USDA projected that 2016 U.S. corn plantings would equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015.  Forecast 2016 harvested acres of approximately 85.893 ma would be up 5.144 ma vs 2015.  With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 14.430 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.

With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.178 bb (record high), total use of 14.170 bb (record high), and projected ending stocks of 2.008 bb (14.17% S/U) – up from 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 and the highest since 2.114 bb (19.83% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50 /bu) – being down from the $3.70 /bu midpoint estimate for “current” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 20% likelihood of occurring by KSU.

KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.0 million acre (ma) downward adjustment in 2016 U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report.

A) KSU “Lower Acres – Trend Yield” Scenario (35% probability) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 164.5 bu/ac trend yield, 13.902 bb production, 15.745 bb total supplies, 13.762 bb total use, 1.983 bb ending stocks, 14.41% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;

B) KSU “Lower Acres – Moderate Drought” Scenario (25% prob.) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac yield, 13.352 bb production, 15.200 bb total supplies, 13.622 bb total use, 1.578 bb ending stocks, 11.58% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn price;  and

C) KSU “Lower Acres – Serious Drought” Scenario (20% prob.) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.676 bb production, 14.529 bb total supplies, 13.257 bb total use, 1.270 bb ending stocks, 9.58% S/U, & $4.45 /bu U.S. corn price “new crop” MY 2016/17.

World Corn Supply-Demand

World corn production of 1,011.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 966.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and down marginally from 1,013.5 mmt in MY 2014/15.

World corn total supplies of 1,218.2 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,174.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,189.2 mmt in MY 2014/15.

World corn exports of 133.1 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 120.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 141.7 mmt in MY 2014/15.

Projected World corn ending stocks of 205.1 mmt (20.25% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are down from 206.45 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from the record high of 208.4 mmt (21.25% S/U) in MY 2014/15.

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