KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Looking ahead to USDA Planting Intention & Stocks reports on 3/31/2015

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, March 27th will be placed up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_03-27-15.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, March 27th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

Following are sections of the working notes prepared for the March 27th radio program:

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A sunset in Northwest Kansas (over a Center Pivot Irrigation System!) (Source: https://www.facebook.com/james.claassen.9/posts/10202471220247374)

U.S. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market-Profitability Graphics through 3/26/2015 (via KSU AgManager)

Following are some graphics on price and profitability trends in the U.S. ethanol and biodiesel industries, which will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website: http://www.agmanager.info/ An updated version of the full presentation titled “U.S. Ethanol & Biodiesel Market Situation” originally that was made for WILL (Illinois Public Radio) earlier this week, but updated here as of Thursday, March 26, 2015 and will be located at the KSU AgManager.info website – at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/Ethanol-Market_WILL-Radio_03-26-15.pdf                                                     Slide1 Slide2 Slide3 Slide4 Slide5 Slide6 Slide7 Slide8 Slide9 Slide10 Slide11 Slide12 Slide13 Slide14 Slide15 Slide16 Slide17 Slide18 Slide19 Slide1                                                        

A “big sky” sunset in Northwest Kansas (Source: https://www.facebook.com/claassenphotos?_rdr)

KSU Grain Market Outlook Presentation – Focus on Soybeans

A grain market outlook presentation was given to the Agricultural Economics 420 class taught by Sean Fox at Kansas State University.  Our focus was on a) drivers of U.S. feedgrain, wheat and soybean markets, b) understanding grain supply-demand balance sheets, and c) analyzing the relationship between “ending stocks-to-use” and prices. re

The web address for the overall presentation is as follows:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/GrainOutlook_AgEcon420_03-25-15.pdf

Following is the part of this presentation related to U.S. Soybean supply-demand and market outlook

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KSU Grain Market Outlook Presentation – Focus on Wheat

A grain market outlook presentation was given to the Agricultural Economics 420 class taught by Sean Fox at Kansas State University.  Our focus was on a) drivers of U.S. feedgrain, wheat and soybean markets, b) understanding grain supply-demand balance sheets, and c) analyzing the relationship between “ending stocks-to-use” and prices. re

The web address for the overall presentation is as follows:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/GrainOutlook_AgEcon420_03-25-15.pdf

Following is the part of this presentation related to U.S. Wheat supply-demand and market outlook, with soybeans to follow later.

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KSU Grain Market Outlook Presentation – Focus on Corn and Grain Sorghum

A grain market outlook presentation was given to the Agricultural Economics 420 class taught by Sean Fox at Kansas State University.  Our focus was on a) drivers of U.S. feedgrain, wheat and soybean markets, b) understanding grain supply-demand balance sheets, and c) analyzing the relationship between “ending stocks-to-use” and prices. re

The web address for the overall presentation is as follows:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/GrainOutlook_AgEcon420_03-25-15.pdf

Following is the part of this presentation related to U.S. Corn and Grain Sorghum supply-demand and market outlook, with wheat and soybeans to follow later.

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KSU Soybean Market Outlook in March 2015 – Questions of 2015 U.S. Soy Acreage and Production Lay Ahead

An analysis of U.S. and World soybean supply-demand factors and 2015-2016 price prospects following the USDA’s March 10th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports either is available on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary of the article on Soybean Market Outlook – with the full article and accompanying analysis available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Soybeans.asp

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Summary

Overview

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on March 10th, MAY 2015 and NOV 2015 soybean futures prices have traded generally lower, but have followed a volatile price pattern. Near term U.S. soybean market price prospects are limited by a) record high 2014 South American and U.S. soybean crops, b) prospects for record or near-record South American and U.S. soybean production and ending stocks again 2015, and c) the rising value of the U.S. dollar – putting U.S. soybeans at a disadvantage to those available from South America (with their weaker currencies). Unless substantial crop production or soybean export availability problems occur very soon in South America, price prospects seem limited until at least May-June 2015 – the main U.S. soybean planting season. After that, 2015 U.S. soybean production prospects are likely to influence soybean markets through fall harvest. The March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings report is likely to have a major impact on U.S. soybean prices, providing direction as to whether the USDA expectation of no increase in 2015 U.S. soybean planted acres, or that of market analysts’ expecting a 1-4 million acre increase is correct.

USDA U.S. Soybean Projection for “current crop” MY 2014/15

The USDA maintained its forecast of record 2014 U.S. soybean production of 3.969 billion bushels (bb) – up 611 million bushels (mb) from 3.358 bb in 2013. For “current crop” MY 2014/15, USDA maintained its projections of U.S. total supplies at a record 4.086 billion bushels (bb), crush at 1.795 bb, exports at a record 1.790 bb, record total use at 3.701 bb, and ending stocks at an 8 year high of 385 million bushels (mb). Ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 10.4% – up from the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14. The USDA forecast “current crop” MY 2014/15 prices to be in the range $9.45-$10.95 with a midpoint of $10.20 /bu – down from $13.00 and $14.40 the last two years.

USDA & KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16

In the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum the USDA projected the following for 2015 and “next crop” MY 2015/16: 83.5 ma planted, 82.6 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 3.800 bb production, 4.205 bb total supplies, 3.775 bb total use, 430 mb ending stocks, 11.39% S/U, and $9.00 /bu price.

Alternative KSU forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are as follows:

A) KSU “Same Acreage” Scenario: 40% prob. of 83.701 ma planted (same as 2014), 82.692 ma harvested, trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.729 bb 2015 production, 4.129 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.730 bb total use, 399 mb end stocks (vs 385 mb in 2014/15), 10.70% ending S/U (vs 11.40%), & $10.10 /bu (vs $10.20 last year).

B) KSU “Up 2 Million Acres” Scenario: 60% prob. of 85.701 ma planted (up 2.0 ma) and 84.668 ma harvested (up 1.607 ma), trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.818 bb 2015 production, 4.218 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.760 bb total use, 458 mb end stocks, 12.18% ending S/U, & $9.60 /bu.

World Soybean Supply-Demand

Record high projected World soybean production of 315.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up from 283.7 mmt in MY 2013/14, and from 268.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. Forecast South American “current crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production is as follows: Brazil (94.5 mmt – up 7.8 mmt from a year earlier), Argentina (56.0 mmt – up 2.0 mmt), and Paraguay (8.5 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), totaling 159.0 mmt (up 10.1 mmt or 6.8% from 148.9 mmt last year). World soybean exports of 117.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 113.0 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up from 100.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. Record high projected World soybean ending stocks of 89.5 mmt (31.0% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 66.35 mmt (24.3% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and up from 57.4 mmt (22.0 % S/U) in MY 2012/13.

https://i1.wp.com/farmprogress.com/cdfm/Faress1/author/198/2014/4/control_weeds_spring_burndown_1_635336394376912000.jpg

Contol of Weeds with Spring Burndown Herbicide Treatments (Source: http://farmprogress.com/story-control-weeds-spring-burndown-9-111481)

https://i2.wp.com/unitedsoybean.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/No-till_habitat_buffer_strip_Lloyd_Farm_KS.jpg

Considering No-till Soybeans (Source: http://unitedsoybean.org/article/no-till-and-soybean-yields/)

https://i1.wp.com/www.kgs.ku.edu/Extension/KSplaces/jpegs/Cedarbluff.jpg

Cedar Bluff Reservoir, Near Wakeeney, Kansas (Source:http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Extension/KSplaces/visit17.html )

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Currency Impacts on Grains and U.S. Acreage Prospects

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments used in the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook played on Friday, March 20th will be placed up on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_03-20-15.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, March 20th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  The program recording will also be available for listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

Following are selected summary slides for this document.

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