“Railroad Rates for Wheat” Article – USDA Grain Transportation Report (June 15, 2017)

The USDA Agricultural Market News service published an article on “Railroad Rates for Wheat” in the June 15, 2017 edition of the Grain Transportation Report.

The article addresses the potential causes of higher rail transportation costs that currently exist for U.S. wheat than for other U.S. grains over similar rail routes.  The full June 15, 2017 USDA Grain Transportation Report is available at the following web address:

https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis/gtr

Following is the key feature article of this report addressing “Railroad Rates for Wheat

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: S-D and Price Scenarios for MY 2017/18 Corn-Wheat

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, June 16, 2017 will be available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRE_GrainOutlook_06-16-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, June 16, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the June 16th recording is available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

“Deep Numbers” Analysis of the June 9, 2017 USDA WASDE and Crop Production Reports (KSU Ag Economics))

A “deep numbers” analysis of the results of the June 9, 2017 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is available on the Agmanager.info website from Kansas State University. The USDA June WASDE and Crop Production reports considered “next crop” 2017/18 marketing year, “current” MY 2016/17, and MY 2015/16 supply-demand and price prospects for U.S. crops, and supply-demand prospects for global and country-by-country analysis.

Results are available on the KSU AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/wasde-deep-numbers-analysis-spreadsheet

This “deep numbers” analysis considers how the June 9th USDA WASDE and other National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) numbers compare to pre-report trade expectations, last month’s report estimates, and previous years.

World Wheat, Corn, Coarse Grain and Soybean supply demand numbers are also considered in an extended look at production, exports, imports, food-industrial and seed use (for corn and coarse grains), food use (for wheat), crush (soybeans), feed and residual use (corn, coarse grains and wheat), ending stocks, and % ending stocks to use.

Selections from this “deep numbers” WASDE report analysis are as follows:

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Anticipating the June 9, 2017 WASDE + Crop Production Reports

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, June 9, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_05-26-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, June 9, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the June 9th recording will be available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

U.S. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market-Profitability Graphics through 5/26/2017 (via KSU AgManager)

Following are some graphics on price and profitability trends in the U.S. ethanol and biodiesel industries, which will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website: http://www.agmanager.info An updated version of the full presentation titled “U.S. Ethanol & Biodiesel Market Situation” was originally made for WILL (Illinois Public Radio) on Tuesday, May 30, 2017, and is located at the KSU AgManager.info website – at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Positive Corn, Sorghum and Wheat Basis Trends in Kansas

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, May 26, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_05-26-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, May 26, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the May 26th recording is available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

“Final Planting Date” of May 25th for Corn in Western KS – Crop Insurance and Likely Maturity Prospects (KSU-Haag and Vandeveer)

The crop insurance “final planting date” for corn across most of Kansas is May 25.  Corn planted after this date faces a declining level of coverage.  Following is an article by Lucas Haag and Monte Vandeveer of Kansas State University addressing these issues.

This article was authored by:

Lucas Haag – KSU Extension Northwest Area Crops and Soils Specialist – Colby, Kansas

Monte Vandeveer – KSU Extension Agricultural Economist – Garden City, Kansas

*****

Late Planting of Corn

While the precipitation received in western and central Kansas has been wonderful for filling the soil profile and thus has increased yield potentials, it has created significant delays in planting both irrigated and dryland corn.  This late planting situation raises several considerations for producers, particularly hybrid selection with respect to maturity and potential crop insurance implications of late planting from a risk management standpoint.

Corn Hybrid Maturity

Many growers are familiar with corn hybrid maturity being expressed as days of “relative maturity” or RM. This system, in place for many years, has generally been more effective at comparing hybrid maturities within a company as opposed to across companies.  Fortunately, in recent years many seed companies have started providing maturity information expressed as growing degree units (GDU’s). Some companies provide both GDU’s to silking and GDU’s to maturity.

What is a GDU?

Growing degree units or growing degree days are a weather based scale to measure the progression of crop phenology in thermally driven crops such as corn.  GDD or GDU’s are calculated as:

GDU = (Daily Maximum Air Temperature + Daily Minimum Air Temperature)/2 – 50

In the case of corn, when the maximum air temperature is greater than 86° F then the maximum air temperature is set to 86°, as the rate of growth for corn does not increase with increasing temperature above 86° F. Similarly, when the minimum air temperature is less than 50° F we use 50° as the value.

In general, it takes 90-120 GDU’s for corn to emerge, residue and soil conditions contribute a great deal of variability to this range. A 110-day hybrid typically needs around 1500 GDU’s to reach silking and 2670 GDU’s to reach black layer or physiological maturity.

Probabilities of Corn Reaching Physiological Maturity based on Location, Planting Date, and Hybrid Maturity

Using historical weather data, the probability of reaching physiological maturity before a 28° F freeze can be calculated. The threshold of 28 was used as long-term weather records only report the minimum, and not the duration of any given temperature. It takes multiple hours of 32° F to kill corn, but only a few minutes of temperatures at 28° F.

GDU’s were totaled for each year from each of multiple planting dates to determine cumulative GDU’s. This calculation was performed for 33 locations and 11 planting dates across western and central Kansas. GDU’s to physiological maturity for a given days of relative maturity were determined by averaging the GDU’s of a given relative maturity across multiple hybrids from multiple companies.

As an example, the probability table for Colby is shown below.  This is based on weather records from 1900 through 2016. If we were to plant a 113 day hybrid on May 22nd, we see that the probability of reaching physiological maturity before a 28° freeze is 52.4%. Switching to a 108 day hybrid would improve that probability to 80%.

Local data is important in evaluating these probabilities as relatively short distances can result in large changes in probability of success for a given hybrid x planting date combination due to changes in elevation and rate of in-season accumulation of GDU’s. For example, again looking at a 113 day hybrid planted on May 22nd, while the probability at Colby is only 52.4% (red circled value), it is 91.3% at Hill City, 64 miles to the east, and 88.5% at Hoxie, a mere 33 miles to the east .

Worst Case Scenarios for Probability of Crop Maturity

It is important to note that these tables likely represent the “worst-case” scenario for probabilities of success. Data from the eastern Corn Belt suggest that when a hybrid is planted later than its optimal planting date it takes fewer GDU’s to reach physiological maturity. Their data suggest that GDU requirements for maturity are reduced by 6.8 GDU’s for every day that planting occurs after May 1st.  Unfortunately, I have not been able to find data from the Great Plains to either confirm that rate or suggest another rate.

It’s reasonable to believe that corn hybrids here will also reduce their GDU requirement with later planting. To get a full view of possibilities I would recommend you look at the probabilities for the maturity of the hybrid you are considering and then also the probabilities for a hybrid that is 3-6 day shorter. This will likely give you a realistic range of potential outcomes. For example, if you are considering the probabilities for a 110 day / 2670 GDU hybrid, you should consider the range of likely scenarios to be between the values listed for that hybrid and those listed for 108 or 105 day hybrid. So for a 110 day/2670 GUD hybrid planted May 29th at Hoxie, the range of probabilities would be 87.2 to 94.9% (green circled probabilities).

Probability charts for additional locations can be found at www.northwest.ksu.edu/agronomy

Locations included in the analysis with tables that can be found at the link include: Alton, Atwood, Belleville, Beloit, Big Bow, Bison, Brewster, Burr Oak, Cimarron, Colby, Concordia, Ellsworth, Garden City, Goodland, Hays, Hill City, Hoxie, Johnson, Lakin, Leoti, Lincoln, Ness City, Norton, Oberlin, Phillipsburg, Plainville, Quinter, Russel Springs, Scott City, Sharon Springs, Smith Center, St. Francis, Syracuse, Tribune, Ulysses, and WaKeeney.

Crop Insurance Implications  

The final planting date for corn in the majority of Kansas is May 25th (see map below). After the final planting date there is a “late planting period” that extends for 20 days after the final plant date.

Full map can be viewed at: https://www.rma.usda.gov/fields/ks_rso/2017/final/kscorn.pdf

For corn acres that haven’t been planted by the final planting date growers have several options:

  1. Plant the insured crop during the late planting period, and insurance coverage will be provided. The late planting period for corn in Kansas and Nebraska is 20 days after the final planting date. The production guarantee is reduced 1% per day for each day that planting is delayed after the final planting date.
  2. Plant the insured crop after the late planting period has ended if you have been prevented from planting during the late planting period, and insurance coverage will be provided. The insurance guarantee will be 55% of the original production guarantee.
  3. Acreage that was prevented from being planted due to an insured cause of loss can be left idle and receive a full prevented planting payment, also equal to 55% of the original production guarantee.
  4. Plant a cover crop during or after the end of the late planting period and receive a full prevented planting payment as long as it is not hayed or grazed before November 1.   The cover crop cannot be harvested for grain or seed at any time.
  5. Plant another crop (second crop) after the late planting period (if also prevented from planting through the late planting period), and receive a prevented planting payment equal to 35% of the prevented planting guarantee.

For example, consider a grower with a dryland corn APH yield of 105 bushels per acre who has signed up for Revenue Protection coverage with a 75% coverage level.  Using the spring projected price of $3.96/bushel, this grower would have a production guarantee of 78.8 bushels per acre and a revenue guarantee per acre of $311.85 (= 105 bu./acre x 75% x $3.96/bu.).  An acre of corn planted five days after the final planting date, for example, would have its production guarantee reduced 5% (1% for each late day), meaning the revenue guarantee would decline 5% from $311.85 to $296.26.

 

Lucas Haag, Northwest Area Agronomist, Northwest Research-Extension Center, Colby

Monte Vandeveer, Southwest Area Economist, Southwest Research-Extension Center, Garden