Crop Production and Grain Stocks Trends in the U.S. and Kansas – Following from Abundant U.S. Grain Harvests

One of the factors causing U.S. grain prices to stay at their current moderate-to-low levels is the total quantity of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybeans available relative to commercial off-farm storage capacity.  This “strain” on storage capacity can be described as a “high demand for grain storage space.”  The net result of strong demand for limited U.S. grain storage capacity is a high real cost of storage – a factor that is influencing the U.S. hard red winter wheat market located in the central and southern plains states (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, etc.).

The following slides are meant to illustrate this “oversupply relative to grain storage” situation as it exists in the U.S. and in the state of Kansas in the 2016/17 marketing year.  In summary, large crop supplies relative to available storage capacity characterize the U.S. grain storage and handling industry at this point in time.  Looking into the future the remedy for this current situation will come from either reduced grain supplies or increased grain usage.  The quickest remedy would seem be some sort of short crop/short supply situation in the U.S. in the coming months of year 2017.  Although it would be a surprise to the market, some combination of foreign crop production problems and increased U.S. grain export demand would also help to alleviate the current oversupply situation.

So, the grain market waits to see whether some combination of these supply – demand factors may reduce supplies relative available to grain storage capacity.  It is not too much of a “stretch” to say that we should know the answer to that question by August-September 2017!

 

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: With Large South American Crops – Focus will shift to U.S. Prospects in May-August

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, April 14, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_04-14-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, April 14, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the April 14th recording will be available after the program airs at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Anticipating the April WASDE + Kansas Crop Cost-Returns

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, April 7, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_03-31-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, April 7, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the April 7th recording is available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

Evaluating USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Reports “By the Numbers”

Following are some extensive data tables representing a Kansas State University perspective on the USDA reports released today, i.e., the Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Reports.  Lower than expected 2017 planted acres intentions for U.S. corn, grain sorghum, and durum wheat, and more for soybeans.   Less than expected DEC-FEB 2017 feed usage of corn, wheat, and soybeans led to higher March 1, 2017 grain stocks for these same crops.   Following are tables from KSU comparing the results of these reports to prereport trade expections and the last 3 actual years.

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Pre-Report Trade Estimates for March 31st Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, March 31, 2016 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_03-31-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, March 31st on the K-State Radio Network (here) – with the program available to listen to online.  After the program airs, a recording can also be listened to from the KSU AgManager.info website via a link  in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 S-D and Price Scenarios for U.S. Corn, Wheat and Soybeans

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the Grain Market Update to played on Friday, March 24, 2017 on the KSU Agriculture Today Radio program are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_03-24-17_0.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, March 24th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – with the program available to listen to online.  After the program airs, a recording can also be listened to from the KSU AgManager.info website via a link  in the “News” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news

 

Key Supply-Demand Factors “Driving” Grain Markets (KSU Extension Ag Economics)

The following presentation on “Key Supply-Demand Factors ‘Driving” Grain Markets” was given on Tuesday, March 14, 2017 to the AgEcon 605 class on “Price Analysis and Forecasting” as a guest lecture.  The class is regularly taught by Dr. Richard Llewelyn of the Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics.

This presentation focuses on the key factors that have been “driving” or influencing grain markets over the last 15-25 years.   The full presentation will be available on the KSU Agricultural Economics website at the following web location:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/OBrien_GrainMarketDrivers_03-15-17.pdf