Kansas State University will be publishing an article titled “Trends in Kansas Crop Planted Acres, Production, & Crop Revenues” on Tuesday, July 26, 2016. The full article will be located on the KSU Agmanager.info website at the following address:
Following are the summary and supporting graphics of the article, dealing with longer term trends in Kansas crop planted acreage, production, and crop production revenues among major crops over the year 2000 through projected 2016 period. It is notable that even though grain price projections are low, large crops help offset the low price impacts for 2016 Kansas crop revenue projections of wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and all hay.
Over the year 2000-2016 time-period there has been a wide variability and in some cases significant expansion in planted acres, crop production, and crop production-related revenues of major Kansas crops. Major changes have occurred over the 2000-2016 period in the production of Kansas corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybean production and crop-related revenues. Key grain market factors such as 1) expansion in U.S. ethanol production, 2) growth in Chinese soybean import demand, 3) seeming distortions and changes in Chinese feedgrain stockpile policies, and 4) a string of successive record or near record large World and U.S. crops has impacted grain supply-demand and ending stocks balances – and especially in 2016 – the market price and production revenue prospects for these major Kansas crops.
When converted to a common per unit of weigh, it is noteworthy that Kansas production of corn on a crop-weight basis is predominant in terms of quantity produced among crops in the state, followed in order of magnitude production-wise by wheat, all hay produced and/or grain sorghum, soybeans, cotton, oats, and sunflower.
After achieving high production revenue amounts for Kansas corn in the 2010/11 through 2012/13 marketing years in the range of $2.642 – $2.844 billion dollars, corn revenues have declined as Kansas corn supplies have increased and prices have subsequently declined over the 2013/14 through projected 2016/17 marketing year period. Projected Kansas corn production revenue of approximately $2.181 billion from KSU estimates is down 23.6% from the MY 2010/11 high of $2.854 billion.
After achieving high production revenue amounts in the 2010/11 and 2013/14 marketing years of $1.613 and $1.677 billion dollars, respectively, soybean revenues have declined as Kansas soybean prices have fallen over the 2014/15 through projected 2016/17 marketing year period. The projected Kansas MY 2016/17 soybean production revenue of approximately $1.445 billion is down nearly 14% from the MY 2013/14 high of $1.677 billion.
While planted acres of Kansas wheat have declined over the 2000-2016 period, Kansas wheat production has been unchanged-to-increasing slightly over the period due to increased wheat yields. With inflation in wheat prices, actual Kansas wheat revenues have trended higher over the 2000-2016 period. However, since year 2010 Kansas wheat production revenues will have trended lower if the KSU projection of $1.72 billion for MY 2016/17 holds true. Weakening U.S. (including Kansas) wheat exports in recent years following from several consecutive large World wheat crops are a primary cause of the current “large supply / low price / low revenue” situation that exists in the U.S. and Kansas wheat farm sector today.
Kansas Grain Sorghum
While planted acres of Kansas grain sorghum have generally declined over the 2000-2016 period, they sharply increased over the 2013-2015 time-frame. Helped by strong trade demand from China during the MY 2014/15 through MY 2016/17 period, Kansas and other states’ producers responded by increasing their grain sorghum acreage and production in response to higher prices and profits. However, with a recent change in China’s domestic feedgrain stocks management policies is designed to make it easier for domestic Chinese feedgrain users to gain access to domestic carryover feedgrain stocks in their country. As a result it seems likely that there will be a reduction in U.S. export sales demand for Kansas grain sorghum exports to that China, and that 2016/17 Kansas grain sorghum prices and projected revenues will decline absent other unforeseen market factors that may occur. Production revenues are forecast by KSU to be $673.2 million for MY 2016/17, which is down 21.7% from the $859.4 million in MY 2015/16.
Planted acres and production of Kansas cotton have generally declined over the 2000-2016 period. Production revenues for Kansas cotton have been highly variable over time – with $10.4 million in MY 2015/16 being a seven (7) year low, and the KSU forecast of $14.8 million for MY 2016/17 by the KSU still being below the 2010-2016 KANSAS average of $21 million.
Planted acres and production of Kansas sunflowers have also generally declined over the 2000-2016 period. However, due to increases in sunflower prices over time, Kansas sunflower production revenues have trended generally sideways. The KSU projection of Kansas sunflower revenue for MY 2016/17 of $13.2 million is less than the 2010-2016 average of $28 million annually.
Kansas All Hay
While harvested acres of all hay in the Kansas have trended lower over the 2000-2016 period, production has begun to trend higher over the 2010-2016 period. Production revenues for Kansas hay of all types have trended sideways to marginally higher over the 2000-2016 period, although the KSU estimate of $562.6 million for MY 2016/17 is less than the 2010-2016 average of $645 million.
Anderson Hall, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas