“Deep Numbers” Analysis of the September 12, 2017 USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports

A “deep numbers” analysis of the results of the September 12, 2017 USDA Crop Production and WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) reports are provided by Kansas State University.  This numbers analysis is available at the KSU AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/wasde-deep-numbers-analysis-spreadsheet

The September 2017 USDA Crop Production report considered and reported the conditions of major U.S. crops in early September, giving projections of final acreage, yields, and production of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, soybeans, and other crops.

The September 2017 USDA WASDE report considered projected supply-demand and price projections for U.S. crops, and supply-demand prospects for global and country-by-country analysis for the period covering the New Crop” 2017/18 Marketing Years, Old Crop” MY 2016/17, and MY 2015/16 supply-demand and price prospects.

This “deep numbers” analysis considers how the September 12th USDA Crop Production and WASDE report results compare to pre-report trade expectations, last month’s report estimates, and previous years.

World Wheat, Corn, Coarse Grain and Soybean supply demand numbers are also considered in an extended look at production, exports, imports, food-industrial and seed use (for corn and coarse grains), food use (for wheat), crush (soybeans), feed and residual use (corn, coarse grains and wheat), ending stocks, and % ending stocks to use.

Selections from this “deep numbers” WASDE report analysis are as follows:

 

 

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KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Prepping for June 30th USDA Acreage and Stocks Reports

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program aired on on Friday, June 30, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_06-30-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, June 30, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the June 30th recording is available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

Key Supply-Demand Factors “Driving” Grain Markets (KSU Extension Ag Economics)

The following presentation on “Key Supply-Demand Factors ‘Driving” Grain Markets” was given on Tuesday, March 14, 2017 to the AgEcon 605 class on “Price Analysis and Forecasting” as a guest lecture.  The class is regularly taught by Dr. Richard Llewelyn of the Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics.

This presentation focuses on the key factors that have been “driving” or influencing grain markets over the last 15-25 years.   The full presentation will be available on the KSU Agricultural Economics website at the following web location:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/OBrien_GrainMarketDrivers_03-15-17.pdf

 

 

 

Trends in Kansas Crop Planted Acres, Production, & Crop Revenues (2000-2016)

Kansas State University will be publishing an article titled “Trends in Kansas Crop Planted Acres, Production, & Crop Revenues” on Tuesday, July 26, 2016.   The full article will be  located on the KSU Agmanager.info website at the following address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/archives/

Following are the summary and supporting graphics of the article, dealing with longer term trends in Kansas crop planted acreage, production, and crop production revenues among major crops over the year 2000 through projected 2016 period.  It is notable that even though grain price projections are low, large crops help offset the low price impacts for 2016 Kansas crop revenue projections of wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, and all hay.

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Summary

Overview

Over the year 2000-2016 time-period there has been a wide variability and in some cases significant expansion in planted acres, crop production, and crop production-related revenues of major Kansas crops.  Major changes have occurred over the 2000-2016 period in the production of Kansas corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybean production and crop-related revenues.  Key grain market factors such as 1) expansion in U.S. ethanol production, 2) growth in Chinese soybean import demand, 3) seeming distortions and changes in Chinese feedgrain stockpile policies, and 4) a string of successive record or near record large World and U.S. crops has impacted grain supply-demand and ending stocks balances – and especially in 2016 – the market price and production revenue prospects for these major Kansas crops.

When converted to a common per unit of weigh, it is noteworthy that Kansas production of corn on a crop-weight basis is predominant in terms of quantity produced among crops in the state, followed in order of magnitude production-wise by wheat, all hay produced and/or grain sorghum, soybeans, cotton, oats, and sunflower.

Kansas Corn

After achieving high production revenue amounts for Kansas corn in the 2010/11 through 2012/13 marketing years in the range of $2.642 – $2.844 billion dollars, corn revenues have declined as Kansas corn supplies have increased and prices have subsequently declined over the 2013/14 through projected 2016/17 marketing year period.  Projected Kansas corn production revenue of approximately $2.181 billion from KSU estimates is down 23.6% from the MY 2010/11 high of $2.854 billion.

Kansas Soybeans

After achieving high production revenue amounts in the 2010/11 and 2013/14 marketing years of $1.613 and $1.677 billion dollars, respectively, soybean revenues have declined as Kansas soybean prices have fallen over the 2014/15 through projected 2016/17 marketing year period.  The projected Kansas MY 2016/17 soybean production revenue of approximately $1.445 billion is down nearly 14% from the MY 2013/14 high of $1.677 billion.

Kansas Wheat

While planted acres of Kansas wheat have declined over the 2000-2016 period, Kansas wheat production has been unchanged-to-increasing slightly over the period due to increased wheat yields.  With inflation in wheat prices, actual Kansas wheat revenues have trended higher over the 2000-2016 period.  However, since year 2010 Kansas wheat production revenues will have trended lower if the KSU projection of $1.72 billion for MY 2016/17 holds true.  Weakening U.S. (including Kansas) wheat exports in recent years following from several consecutive large World wheat crops are a primary cause of the current “large supply / low price / low revenue” situation that exists in the U.S. and Kansas wheat farm sector today.

Kansas Grain Sorghum

While planted acres of Kansas grain sorghum have generally declined over the 2000-2016 period, they sharply increased over the 2013-2015 time-frame.  Helped by strong trade demand from China during the MY 2014/15 through MY 2016/17 period, Kansas and other states’ producers responded by increasing their grain sorghum acreage and production in response to higher prices and profits.  However, with a recent change in China’s domestic feedgrain stocks management policies is designed to make it easier for domestic Chinese feedgrain users to gain access to domestic carryover feedgrain stocks in their country.  As a result it seems likely that there will be a reduction in U.S. export sales demand for Kansas grain sorghum exports to that China, and that 2016/17 Kansas grain sorghum prices and projected revenues will decline absent other unforeseen market factors that may occur.  Production revenues are forecast by KSU to be $673.2 million for MY 2016/17, which is down 21.7% from the $859.4 million in MY 2015/16.

Kansas Cotton

Planted acres and production of Kansas cotton have generally declined over the 2000-2016 period.  Production revenues for Kansas cotton have been highly variable over time – with $10.4 million in MY 2015/16 being a seven (7) year low, and the KSU forecast of $14.8 million for MY 2016/17 by the KSU still being below the 2010-2016 KANSAS average of $21 million.

Kansas Sunflowers

Planted acres and production of Kansas sunflowers have also generally declined over the 2000-2016 period.  However, due to increases in sunflower prices over time, Kansas sunflower production revenues have trended generally sideways.  The KSU projection of Kansas sunflower revenue for MY 2016/17 of $13.2 million is less than the 2010-2016 average of $28 million annually.

Kansas All Hay

While harvested acres of all hay in the Kansas have trended lower over the 2000-2016 period, production has begun to trend higher over the 2010-2016 period.  Production revenues for Kansas hay of all types have trended sideways to marginally higher over the 2000-2016 period, although the KSU estimate of $562.6 million for MY 2016/17 is less than the 2010-2016 average of $645 million.

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Image result for anderson hall, kansas state university

Anderson Hall, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas

Trends in U.S. Crop Planted Acres, Production, & Crop Revenues (2000-2016)

Kansas State University published an article titled “Trends in U.S. Crop Planted Acres, Production, & Crop Revenues” on Friday, July 22, 2016.   The full article is located on the KSU Agmanager.info website at the following address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/AcreageTrends.asp

Following are the summary and supporting graphics of the article, dealing with longer term trends in U.S. crop planted acreage, production, and crop production revenues among major crops over the year 2000 through projected 2016 period.  It is notable that 2016 U.S. crop revenue projections were down in 2015, and are projected to be even lower in most cases for 2016.

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Summary

Overview

Over the year 2000-2016 time period there has been a significant expansion in both planted acres and production of corn and soybeans in the United States.  Primary factors causing these changes have been the growth that has occurred in corn-based ethanol production in the United States and in Chinese soybean export demand in the World soybean market since year 2000.   When converted to a common per unit of weigh, it is noteworthy that U.S. production of corn on a crop-weight basis is predominant, followed in order by all hay produced, soybeans, wheat, grain sorghum, cotton, barley, oats, and sunflower.

Projected revenues for the MY 2016/17 marketing years for each of the major U.S. crop crops considered here – corn, soybeans, wheat, grain sorghum, cotton, barley, oats, and sunflowers – are down from average revenues for those same crops since and including 2010.  These findings reinforce concerns about weakening U.S. crop enterprise-related financial conditions in the United States in the near term.

U.S. Corn Trends

After achieving high production revenue amounts for U.S. corn in the 2011/12 and 2012/13 marketing years in the range of $74.155 – $76.651 billion dollars, corn revenues have declined as U.S. corn supplies have increased and prices have subsequently declined over the 2013/14 through projected 2016/17 marketing year period.  Projected U.S. corn production revenue of approximately $49.436 billion from the July 12th WASDE report is down nearly 36% from the MY 2011/12 high of $76.651 billion.

U.S. Soybean Trends

After achieving high production revenue amounts in the 2012/13 and 2013/14 marketing years in the range of $43.583 – $43.723 billion dollars, soybean revenues have declined as U.S. soybean prices have fallen over the 2013/14 through projected 2016/17 marketing year period.  Projected U.S. soybean production revenue of approximately $36.680 billion from the July 12th WASDE report is down nearly 16% from the MY 2012/13 high of $45.583 billion.

U.S. Wheat Trends

While planted acres of U.S. wheat have declined over the 2000-2016 period, U.S. wheat production has been unchanged-to-increasing slightly over the period due to increased wheat yields.  With inflation in wheat prices, actual wheat revenues have trended higher over the 2000-2016 period.  However, since year 2000 U.S. wheat production revenues have fallen sharply with the implicit USDA projection of $8.592 billion for MY 2016/17 being down from the range of $10.203 – 17.383 billion over the 2010-2015.  Weakening U.S. wheat exports in recent years following from several consecutive large World wheat crops are a primary cause of the current “large supply / low price / low revenue” situation that exists in the U.S. wheat farm sector.

U.S. Grain Sorghum Trends

While planted acres of U.S. grain sorghum have generally declined over the 2000-2016 period, they sharply increased over the 2013-2016 period.  Helped by strong trade demand from China during 2013-2015, U.S. producers responded by increasing U.S. grain sorghum acreage and production of.  However, with a change in Chinese domestic feedgrain stocks management policies and decreased for U.S. grain sorghum imports, U.S. grain sorghum prices and projected revenues have declined.  Production revenues are projected to be $1.323 billion for MY 2016/17, which is down 36% from the record high of $2.081 billion in MY 2015/16, and at the lowest level since $1.260 billion in MY 2011/12.

U.S. Cotton Trends

Planted acres of U.S. cotton have generally declined over the 2000-2016 period, but U.S. cotton production has on-average trended sideways – owing to increasing U.S. cotton yields.  Production revenues for U.S. cotton have been highly variable over time – with $3.862 billion in MY 2015/16 being a seven (7) year low, and the implicit forecast of $4.475 billion for MY 2016/17 by the USDA still being below the 2010-2016 U.S. average of $5.614 billion.

U.S. Sunflower Trends

Planted acres of U.S. sunflowers have also generally declined over the 2000-2016 period.  However, U.S. sunflower production – while being quite variable over time – has trended higher since the 2010, especially in 2015 and 2016.  Production revenues for U.S. sunflowers have trended moderately lower since MY 2010/11, with the July 12th implicit USDA estimate of $493 million being less than the 2010-2016 average of $559 million.

U.S. All Hay Trends

While harvested acres of all hay in the U.S. have trended lower over the 2000-2016 period, production has generally been unchanged – again owing to increasing yields for U.S. hay over time.  Production revenues for U.S. hay of all types have trended higher over the 2000-2016 period, although the July 12th implicit USDA estimate of $17.362 billion is moderately less than the 2010-2016 average of $17.774 billion.

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Recommended Farmdoc Article re: 2015 U.S. Crop Planting Intentions Questions (Good and Irwin)

Agricultural Economists Darrel Good and Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois have an outstanding article on “The Acreage Puzzle” on the Farmdoc web site.  This article provides a quantified analytical perspective on questions about what seems to be unexpectedly low U.S. crop planted acreage totals as reported in the 2015 USDA Prospective Plantings report released on March 31, 2015.

Their final summary idea is that it would not be a surprise to see 2015 U.S. crop acreage – especially for U.S. soybeans – end up being somewhat higher than indicated by the USDA on March 31st.

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April 2, 2015

The Acreage Puzzle

Darrel Good and Scott Irwin

Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
University of Illinois

farmdoc daily (5):61


Recommended citation format: Good, D., and S. Irwin. “The Acreage Puzzle.” farmdoc daily (5):61, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, April 2, 2015.

https://i0.wp.com/fieldcrop.msu.edu/images/banner_cornsoybeans.jpg

U.S. corn and soybeans side by side (Source of image: http://fieldcrop.msu.edu/ )

KSU 2015 Soybean Markets & Profitability Prospects in South Central Kansas

Following is the Soybean Markets and Profitability Prospects presentation given at the K-State 2015 Soybean School in Derby, Kansas on Wednesday, February 4, 2015.  This presentation is focused on both the profitability of soybean production in South Central Kansas, and market prospects for U.S. soybeans in “current crop” 2014/15 and “next crop” 2015/16.  This presentation is also available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web addresses:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/default.asp

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/OBrien_SoybeanSchool_Derby_02-04-15.pdf

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Following are selected parts of the presentation given in Derby, Kansas on Wednesday, February 4th.

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