KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Positive Corn, Sorghum and Wheat Basis Trends in Kansas

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, May 26, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_05-26-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, May 26, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the May 26th recording is available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

KSU Corn Market Outlook in Mid-May 2017: Considering Acreage, Yield and Production Scenarios

This article provides an analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and price prospects for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year following the USDA’s May 10, 2017 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in Mid-May 2017″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter

 

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Summary

Overview

Since the USDA’s May 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, JULY 2017 CME corn futures have been moderately volatile – moving both higher and lower within the range of $3.65 ¼ to $3.74.  “Current” MY 2016/17 U.S. corn prices have found some support due to 2017 production uncertainties (i.e., wet soils impacting corn planting & establishment in some regions and varying weather forecasts for summer 2017) and strong U.S. corn use in ethanol production, wet corn milling, exports and to a moderate degree in livestock feeding.

In addition, in the March 31st Prospective Plantings report the USDA forecast fewer U.S. corn planted acres in 2017.  If in 2017 there is a return to trend line U.S. corn yields near 167-168 bu/acre, then 170 bu/acre in 2017, then 2017 U.S. corn production could be in the range of 13.500 to 13.750 billion bushels (bb) instead of the USDA projection of 14.065 bb or the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.

Forecasts by the USDA and other market analysts that ending stocks of U.S. corn will stay above 2 bb in “next crop” MY 2017/18, coupled with ending stocks-to-use above 14.5%-15.0% in both “current” MY 2016/17 and “next crop” MY 2017/18 has limited any significant corn futures or cash market price rallies to date in Spring 2017.   IF excessive moisture conditions that have developed in the U.S. Corn Belt in late April – mid-May were to continue until late-May and significantly delay planting progress – THEN increased concerns about 2017 U.S. corn production prospects could lead to higher U.S. corn prices in late-Spring – Summer 2017.

Kansas Cash Corn Bids & Basis as of May 17, 2017

Cash corn bids at major grain elevators ranged from $3.07 ($0.65 under JULY futures) to $3.62 ($0.10 under) in Western Kansas and $2.98 ($0.73 under) to $3.31 ½ ($0.40 under) in Central Kansas on Wednesday, May 17th.  This represents a marked increase since October-December 2016 when corn price bids statewide had fallen below $3.00 per bushel – down to $2.66-$2.96 on December 23rd – although not as low as marketing loan rates near $2.05 (central KS) to $2.19 (western KS) per bushel.  Cash corn price bids in east central and northeast Kansas – near river terminal locations – were near $3.48 ½ – $3.51 ½ on May 17th, up from the range of $3.26-$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016.  Cash corn bids at Kansas ethanol plants on May 17th ranged from $3.47 ¾ ($0.20 under) to $4.02 ¾ ($0.35 over) – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand for corn in Kansas and nationwide.

While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that corn usage has not declined, and that Kansas cash corn prices have enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.

Other Factors that Could Affect the Corn Market in 2017

  • First, the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early-spring and some into summer 2017.
  • Second, anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding through spring-summer 2017.
  • Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – at least until what is forecast to be a sizable 2nd crop of corn from South America becomes available on global markets during Summer 2017.
  • And fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017.  World geo-political events have the potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate depending on which countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.

USDA Supply-Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

Early USDA projections are for 2017 U.S. corn plantings of 89.996 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.0 ma).   Harvested acres of approximately 82.4 ma (down 4.35 ma) are forecast, with projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), leading to a 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast of 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.

The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.410 bb – down 530 mb from last year’s record high.  Total use is forecast at 14.300 bb – down 345 mb from last year’s record high.  Ending stocks are projected to be 2.110 bb (14.76% S/U) – down from 2.295 bb (15.67% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17.  United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.40 /bu (range of $3.00-$3.80).  This equals the midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu from “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 45% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.

Alternative KSU Supply-Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18.  Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than projected by the USDA in the May 10, 2017 WASDE report for “next crop” MY 2017/18.

  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.556 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.556 bb production, 15.901 bb total supplies, 14.255 bb total use, 1.646 bb ending stocks, 11.55% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;
  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.370 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.370 bb production, 15.715 bb total supplies, 14.155 bb total use, 1.560 bb ending stocks, 11.02% S/U, & $4.10 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;
  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.155 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 80.535 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.080 bb production, 14.375 bb total supplies, 13.460 bb total use, 915 million bushels (mb) ending stocks, 6.80% S/U, & $6.00 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;

World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

World corn production of 1,033.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down 3.0% from the record high of 1,065.1 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.8% from 968.1 mmt in MY 2015/16.  Near record World corn total supplies of 1,257.6 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down marginally from the record high of 1,278.1 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,177.5 mmt in MY 2015/16.

World corn exports of a near record 151.9 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down 4.2% from the record high of 158.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 26.6% from 119.95 mmt in MY 2015/16.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 195.3 mmt (18.4% S/U) in “next crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 223.9 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17, and from 212.4 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16.

Strong World demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico, Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine).   An ongoing, strong demand base for corn could help cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any serious threats emerge to the 2017 U.S. corn crop.

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Alternative Scenarios for “Next Crop” 2017/18 Corn and Wheat

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, May 12, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_05-12-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, May 12, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the May 12th recording will be available at the KSU Agriculture Today website after the recording.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Kansas Wheat Tour Graphics, Corn and Soybean “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenarios

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, May 5, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_05-05-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, May 5, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the May 5th recording will available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: U.S. Exports, Ethanol Trends and Kansas Wheat Freeze Damage Worries

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, April 28, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_04-28-17.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, April 28, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the April 28th recording is available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

Crop Production and Grain Stocks Trends in the U.S. and Kansas – Following from Abundant U.S. Grain Harvests

One of the factors causing U.S. grain prices to stay at their current moderate-to-low levels is the total quantity of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybeans available relative to commercial off-farm storage capacity.  This “strain” on storage capacity can be described as a “high demand for grain storage space.”  The net result of strong demand for limited U.S. grain storage capacity is a high real cost of storage – a factor that is influencing the U.S. hard red winter wheat market located in the central and southern plains states (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, etc.).

The following slides are meant to illustrate this “oversupply relative to grain storage” situation as it exists in the U.S. and in the state of Kansas in the 2016/17 marketing year.  In summary, large crop supplies relative to available storage capacity characterize the U.S. grain storage and handling industry at this point in time.  Looking into the future the remedy for this current situation will come from either reduced grain supplies or increased grain usage.  The quickest remedy would seem be some sort of short crop/short supply situation in the U.S. in the coming months of year 2017.  Although it would be a surprise to the market, some combination of foreign crop production problems and increased U.S. grain export demand would also help to alleviate the current oversupply situation.

So, the grain market waits to see whether some combination of these supply – demand factors may reduce supplies relative available to grain storage capacity.  It is not too much of a “stretch” to say that we should know the answer to that question by August-September 2017!

 

 

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: With Large South American Crops – Focus will shift to U.S. Prospects in May-August

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, April 14, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_04-14-17.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, April 14, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the April 14th recording will be available after the program airs at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…