“Deep Numbers” Analysis of the June 9, 2017 USDA WASDE and Crop Production Reports (KSU Ag Economics))

A “deep numbers” analysis of the results of the June 9, 2017 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is available on the Agmanager.info website from Kansas State University. The USDA June WASDE and Crop Production reports considered “next crop” 2017/18 marketing year, “current” MY 2016/17, and MY 2015/16 supply-demand and price prospects for U.S. crops, and supply-demand prospects for global and country-by-country analysis.

Results are available on the KSU AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/wasde-deep-numbers-analysis-spreadsheet

This “deep numbers” analysis considers how the June 9th USDA WASDE and other National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) numbers compare to pre-report trade expectations, last month’s report estimates, and previous years.

World Wheat, Corn, Coarse Grain and Soybean supply demand numbers are also considered in an extended look at production, exports, imports, food-industrial and seed use (for corn and coarse grains), food use (for wheat), crush (soybeans), feed and residual use (corn, coarse grains and wheat), ending stocks, and % ending stocks to use.

Selections from this “deep numbers” WASDE report analysis are as follows:

 

“Deep Numbers” Analysis of the May 10, 2017 USDA WASDE Report (D. O’Brien KSU)

A “deep numbers” analysis of the results of the May 10, 2017 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is available on the Agmanager.info website from Kansas State University. The May WASDE report considered “next crop” 2017/18 marketing year, “current” MY 2016/17, and MY 2015/16 supply-demand and price prospects for U.S. crops, and supply-demand prospects for global and country-by-country analysis.

Results are available at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/wasde-quick-analysis-spreadsheet

This “deep numbers” analysis considers how the May 10th USDA WASDE and other National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) numbers compare to pre-report trade expectations, last month’s report estimates, and previous years.

World Wheat, Corn, Coarse Grain and Soybean supply demand numbers are also considered in an extended look at production, exports, imports, food-industrial and seed use (for corn and coarse grains), food use (for wheat), crush (soybeans), feed and residual use (corn, coarse grains and wheat), ending stocks, and % ending stocks to use.

Selections from this “deep numbers” WASDE report analysis are as follows:

 

Key Supply-Demand Factors “Driving” Grain Markets (KSU Extension Ag Economics)

The following presentation on “Key Supply-Demand Factors ‘Driving” Grain Markets” was given on Tuesday, March 14, 2017 to the AgEcon 605 class on “Price Analysis and Forecasting” as a guest lecture.  The class is regularly taught by Dr. Richard Llewelyn of the Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics.

This presentation focuses on the key factors that have been “driving” or influencing grain markets over the last 15-25 years.   The full presentation will be available on the KSU Agricultural Economics website at the following web location:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/OBrien_GrainMarketDrivers_03-15-17.pdf

 

 

 

Grain Market Update (5th of 5 parts) – Graphics of U.S. Soybean Market Outlook

In the following charts is the fifth of five (5) blog posts illustrating parts of the “Grain Market Outlook for 2017” presentation given by Kansas State University Extension Agricultural Economist Daniel O’Brien.  The complete presentation will be available on the www.AgManager.info website provided by the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University .

This fifth of five (5) related blog posts provides information on Soybean Market Situation and Outlook.

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Soybean Market Analysis – Graphics Focusing on Russell, Kansas (via KSU)

Following are a set of graphics showing key trends and relationships in U.S. and World Soybean markets.  These selected U.S. and World supply-demand relationships are among those most likely to impact U.S. agricultural imports and therefore U.S. grain prices.

These slides are part of a larger “Grain Market Outlook for 2017” presentation which is located on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) in the “Grain Marketing” section (http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing).

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KSU “Quick Analysis” Calculations of USDA November 9th Reports – Focusing on U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields and Production, and World Crop Supply-Demand Balances

A KSU “quick analysis” worksheet of the key grain marketing-related information found in the November 9, 2016 USDA Crop Production (here) and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report (here) can be found on the Kansas State University AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/).

The specific web address for this downloadable MS Excel Spreadsheet is found here:  http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing

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The spreadsheet contains a comparison of USDA November 2016 forecasts with a) pre-report trade estimates, b) last month’s October 2016 WASDE projections, and c) projections for previous marketing years.  Key information is contained on the following:

A. U.S. crop production forecasts for 2016 corn, soybean and grain sorghum.

B. U.S. ending stocks projections for the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year for major crops.

C. World ending stocks projections for the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year for major crops

The worksheet also contains a more extensive analysis of the September WASDE report results in regards to World wheat, coarse grain, corn and soybean supply-demand results, focusing on country-by-country (or region-by-region in many cases) projections of production, imports, exports, domestic feed use, and ending stocks.

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A Kansas Grain Elevator (Source: https://www.britannica.com/topic/grain-elevator/images-videos)

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“Soybean Market Outlook for 2017” Presentation at KSU Ag Lender’s Conferences, October 4-5, 2016

As part of the Kansas State University Agricultural Lenders Conferences to be held on Tuesday, October 4th in Garden City, Kansas and on Wednesday, October 5th in Manhattan, Kansas, a “Grain Market Outlook in 2017” presentation will be given by Daniel O’Brien, KSU Extension Agricultural Economist.

Following are the full set of slide for the first part of that presentation pertaining to Soybean Market Outlook for 2017.

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