Wheat Market Outlook for 2017-2018 @ the 2017 KSU Risk and Profit Conference, August 18, 2017

The following information on the “Wheat Sorghum Market Outlook for 2017-2018” was presented at the 2017 K-State Risk and Profit Conference in Manhattan, Kansas on Friday, August 18, 2017.

The full version of this presentation – with additional information not presented to the conference because of time constraints – is available online at the following web address:


Following is the full “Wheat Market Outlook for 2017-2018” available at the 2017 K-State Risk and Profit Conference on Friday, August 18, 2017.




Key Trends in World Currencies Important to U.S. Agriculture (via Kansas State University)

Following are a set of graphics showing key trends and relationships in World currencies versus the U.S. Dollar.  These selected currency relationships are among those most likely to impact U.S. agricultural imports and therefore U.S. grain prices.

These slides are part of a larger “Grain Market Outlook for 2017” presentation which is located on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) in the “Grain Marketing” section (http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing).

slide4 slide5 slide6 slide7 slide8 slide9 slide10 slide11 slide12 slide13 slide14 slide15 slide16 slide17 slide18 slide19 slide20 slide21

KSU Weekly Grain Market Summary – with 2013 Feedgrain and Wheat Market Projections (via KSU AgManager)

Grain market summary notes, charts and audio for the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to be played on Friday, December 21, 2012 are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_12-21-12.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m., Friday, December 21st on KFRM Radio (here) – web player available.  The recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook report available from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) at the following web address: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

Source: http://faculty.weber.edu/kmackay/walter_prescott_webb__great_plai.htm

“Estimated Rules for Monetary Policy” (via George Kahn, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank)

George Kahn, Vice President and Economist at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank (http://www.kansascityfed.org/) released an applied research article in October 2012 titled “Estimated Rules for Monetary Policy” which can be found here.

The author indicates the following about this critical topic:

“This article estimates policy rules over periods of favorable economic performance to derive benchmark rules that might be useful guides for future monetary policy.”

“Section I describes two simple, nonestimated rules that have been proposed as guides for policy and examines how closely they describe the actual setting of policy over various periods.”

“Section II identifies time periods over which macroeconomic performance has generally been favorable and estimates policy rules that describe how monetary policy responded to key indicators over these periods.”

“Section III evaluates past and current policy relative to the estimated rule and gives a number of reasons why policymakers should remain cautious about blindly following any estimated rule.”

“The article concludes that a rule that puts somewhat greater weight on inflation than output in determining a setting for the federal funds rate has worked well in the past and could be a useful guide in the future. However, some of the unique features of the current economic situation—including a binding zero lower bound on interest rates and a desire to manage downside risk to the outlook for economic activity—may suggest a need for flexibility in following the prescription of any rule based on past performance.”