KSU Corn Market Outlook in Early-May: Alternative Crop Production and Price Scenarios for MY 2017/18

This article provides an analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and price prospects for both the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year following the USDA’s April 11, 2017 USDA Crop Production and https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf reports.

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in Early-May 2017″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter/corn-market-outlook-early-may-2017

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Summary

Overview & Summary

Since the USDA’s April 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, MAY 2017 CME corn futures have been moderately volatile – moving both higher and lower within the range of $3.54 ¼ to $3.73.  “Current” MY 2016/17 U.S. corn prices have found some support at levels above local marketing loan rates because of the positive impact that low prices have had on the use of U.S. corn in ethanol production, wet corn milling, exports and to a moderate degree in livestock feeding.   In addition, the February 23-24 USDA 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum together with the March 31st Prospective Plantings report have forecast fewer U.S. corn planted acres in 2017, and with a return to trend line U.S. corn yields, lower 2017 U.S. corn production of 14.065 billion bushels (bb) versus the record highs of 15.148 bb in 2016.

However, projections of ending stocks of U.S. corn staying above 2 billion bushels (bb) coupled with ending stocks-to-use above 15% in both “current” MY 2016/17 and “next crop” MY 2017/18 has limited any significant corn futures or cash market price rallies to date in Spring 2017.   IF excessive moisture conditions that have developed in the U.S. Corn Belt in late April – very early May were to continue until mid-May and significantly delay planting progress – THEN increased concerns about 2017 U.S. corn production prospects could lead to higher U.S. corn prices in late-Spring – Summer 2017.

Cash corn prices at major grain elevators in central and western Kansas ranged from $3.04 to $3.31 on Monday, May 1st.  This represents a marked increase since October-December 2016 when prices had fallen below $3.00 per bushel – down to $2.66-$2.96 on December 23rd – although not as low as marketing loan rates near $2.05 (central KS) to $2.19 (western KS) per bushel.  Cash corn prices in east central and northeast Kansas – near river terminal locations – were near $3.55 on May 1st, up from the range of $3.26-$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016.  Cash corn prices at Kansas ethanol plants on May 1st ranged from $3.38 to $3.73 – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand in Kansas and nationwide.  While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that corn usage has not declined, and that Kansas cash corn prices have enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.

Other Factors Potentially Affecting the U.S. Corn Market

Other factors that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2017 include the following:

  • First, the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017.
  • Second, anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding through spring-summer 2017.
  • Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – at least until what is forecast to be a sizable 2nd crop of corn from South America becomes available on global markets during Summer 2017.
  • Fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017.  World geo-political events have the potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate depending on which countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn plantings of 89.996 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.0 ma).   Harvested acres of approximately 82.4 ma (down 4.35 ma) are forecast, with projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), leading to a 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.

The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.435 bb – down 505 mb from last year’s record high.  Total use is forecast at 14.220 bb – down 400 mb from last year’s record high.  Ending stocks are projected to be 2.215 bb (15.58% S/U) – down from 2.320 bb (15.87% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17.  United States’ corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu from “current” MY 2016/17 – but within the range of $3.25-$3.55 /bu for this marketing year. This scenario is given a 55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.

Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18.  Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23-24, 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18.

  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.556 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.556 bb production, 15.926 bb total supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.741 bb ending stocks, 12.27% S/U, & $3.85 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;
  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.370 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.370 bb production, 15.740 bb total supplies, 14.080 bb total use, 1.660 bb ending stocks, 11.21% S/U, & $4.05 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;
  • KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.155 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.155 bb production, 14.525 bb total supplies, 13.460 bb total use, 1.065 bb ending stocks, 7.91% S/U, & $4.75 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY 2017/18;

World Corn Supply-Demand

Record high World corn production of 1,053.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 9.4% from 963.3 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 3.7% from 1,016.0 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Record high World corn total supplies of 1,265.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up from 1,173.1 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.8 mmt in MY 2014/15.

World corn exports of 154.4 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 28.7% from 120.0 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 8.6% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Projected record high World corn ending stocks of 223.0 mmt (21.4% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 211.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.

  • Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 223.0 mmt, World corn percent ending stocks-to-use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.4%.  Strong World demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico, Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine).   An ongoing, strong demand base for corn could help cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any serious threats emerge to the 2017 U.S. corn crop.

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Key Supply-Demand Factors “Driving” Grain Markets (KSU Extension Ag Economics)

The following presentation on “Key Supply-Demand Factors ‘Driving” Grain Markets” was given on Tuesday, March 14, 2017 to the AgEcon 605 class on “Price Analysis and Forecasting” as a guest lecture.  The class is regularly taught by Dr. Richard Llewelyn of the Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics.

This presentation focuses on the key factors that have been “driving” or influencing grain markets over the last 15-25 years.   The full presentation will be available on the KSU Agricultural Economics website at the following web location:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/OBrien_GrainMarketDrivers_03-15-17.pdf

 

 

 

KSU Corn Market Outlook in October 2016: Strong Demand holds Kansas Corn Prices Above Marketing Loan at Harvest

This article provides an analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and price prospects for both the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year following the USDA’s October 12, 2016 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in October 2016″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter/corn-market-outlook-october-2016

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Summary

Overview

Since the USDA’s October 12th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports, DEC 2016 CME corn futures has trended higher from a close of $3.37 per bushel on the day of the report, to a high of $3.58 ¾ on October 14th, before closing at $3.53 ¾ on October 18th with nearly 50% of the U.S. corn harvest complete.  The USDA’s forecast of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop over 15 billion bushels (bb) and ending stocks of near 2.3 bb have continued to be the primary focus of the U.S. corn market.

Cash Corn Markets in Kansas vs Marketing Loan Rates

Cash corn prices in Kansas have declined to near or below $3.00 per bushel, but have not fallen as low as marketing loan rates.  For example, on October 19th, cash corn prices near Salina, Kansas in the central part of the state ranged from $2.81 to $2.95 per bushel –above the Saline County marketing loan rate of $2.05 per bushel.  Similarly, cash corn prices near Garden City in southwest Kansas ranged from $3.02 to $3.05 per bushel – above the Finney County marketing loan rate of $2.19 per bushel.  Although fall harvest is approximately 75%+ completed in Kansas with the situation of large supplies and tight storage availability to deal with in local grain markets, it is an encouraging signal for corn demand that cash corn prices have not fallen down to loan rate – price support levels.

Other Corn Market Factors in 2017

Other market factors to consider that could affect the U.S. corn market in what remains of 2016 through mid-2017 include: 1) the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which will be placed in storage after fall harvest, 2) anticipation of continued strong use of “new crop” 2016 U.S. corn in domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding, 3) at least moderate strength in U.S. corn exports – driven partly by a poor harvest and lack of exportable supplies in Brazil in 2016 as well as other World corn market factors, and 4) the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets in later 2016 and 2017.

For example, unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve could affect U.S. interest rates which could affect U.S. corn exports.  Also, World geo-political events could provide an unanticipated “shock” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

With USDA projections of 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 94.490 ma (up 6.491 ma from 2015), harvested acres of 86.836 ma (up 6.087 ma from 2015), record high projected yields of 173.4 bu/ac (vs 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 and the previous record high of 171.0 bu/ac in 2014), 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 15.057 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, the current record of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.

With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.845 bb (record high), total use of 14.525 bb (record high), and projected ending stocks of 2.320 bb (15.97% S/U) – up from 1.738 bb (12.72% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16 and the highest since 4.259 bb (54.90% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $2.95-$3.55 (midpoint = $3.25 /bu) – being down from $3.61 /bu for “old crop” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 70% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.

Alternative KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

Two alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, each gauging the likelihood of lower U.S. corn yields and production than projected by the USDA in the October 12th USDA WASDE report.

KSU Scenario A) “172.5 bu/ac – 14.979 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes: 94.490 ma planted, 86.836 ma harvested, 172.5 bu/ac yield, 14.979 bb production, 16.717 bb total supplies, 14.525 bb total use, 2.192 bb ending stocks, 15.09% S/U, & $3.35 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;

KSU Scenario B) “171.0 bu/ac – 14.849 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 94.490 ma planted, 86.836 ma harvested, 171.0 bu/ac yield, 14.849 bb production, 16.637 bb total supplies, 14.525 bb total use, 2.112 bb ending stocks, 14.54% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;

World Corn Supply-Demand

Record high World corn production of 1,025.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 959.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,014.4 mmt in MY 2014/15.

Record high World corn total supplies of 1,235.7 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,168.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 1,189.7 mmt in MY 2014/15.  World corn exports of 143.8 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 119.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 141.7 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 216.8 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 210.9 mmt (21.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 208.9 mmt (21.3% S/U) in MY 2014/15.  Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “new crop” MY 2016/17 at 216.8 mmt, World corn percent ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are forecast to actually decline to 21.3% – indicative of expected continued strong World demand for corn at low prices – especially in Europe where grain production has been hampered by extreme weather conditions.

Brazil Corn Supply-Demand

Brazil corn production in “old crop” MY 2015/16 (1st crop harvested in January-May 2016, 2nd crop harvested in May-August) is estimated to be 67.0 mmt, down 18.0 mmt (down 21.2%) from 85.0 mmt in MY 2014/15.  This shortfall in Brazilian corn production in 2016 has provided support for U.S. corn exports and even ethanol production (via exports). However, expectations of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop have had a predominant negative impact on U.S. corn market prices through late summer and early fall.  Brazilian corn production is forecast by the USDA to rebound back to 83.5 mmt in MY 2016/17 (2017 production).  Uncertainty about Brazilian corn production prospects in 2017 could be a major factor impacting U.S. and World corn prices in the coming spring and summer months of 2017.

China Corn Supply-Demand

China corn production in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (harvested in September-October 2016) is estimated to be 216.0 mmt, down 8.6 mmt (down 3.8%) from 224.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, but marginally higher than 215.65 mmt in MY 2014/15.  A major focus in World corn markets is on the size of Chinese ending stocks and on recent changes in China’s domestic corn stock management policies.  Ending stocks of corn in China are projected to be 103.7 mmt (45.9% SU) in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down from 110.7 mmt (50.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but up from 100.5 mmt (49.7% S/U) in MY 2014/15.  Over the last three marketing years, percent ending stocks-to-use of corn for China ranging from 49.7% to 50.9% are the highest since MY 2002/03 (51.6%).  During the interim MY 2003/04 to MY 2013/14 period, Chinese corn percent ending stocks-to-use averaged 30.5%, ranging from 25.2% to 39.1%.

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KSU Corn Market Outlook in September 2016: Comparing “Likely” USDA vs “Possible” KSU 2016 Corn Market Outcomes

This article provides an analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and price prospects for the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year following the USDA’s September 12, 2016 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports is available on the KSU AgManager website:  http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in September 2016″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter

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Summary

Overview

Since the USDA’s September 12th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, DEC 2016 CME corn futures first trended lower from a close of $3.39 ½ per bushel on the day of the report, to a low of $3.26 ½ on September 14th, before trending back higher to close at $3.40 on September 22nd with the bulk of fall harvest approaching.   The USDA’s continued forecast of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop over 15 billion bushels (bb) and ending stocks of near 2.4 bb have continued to be the focus of the U.S. corn market.

Cash corn prices in Kansas have declined below $3.00 per bushel, but have not yet fallen to the marketing loan rate.  For example, on September 22nd, cash corn prices near Salina, Kansas in the central part of the state ranged from $2.63 to $2.80 per bushel – still above the Saline County marketing loan rate of $2.05 per bushel.  Similarly, cash corn prices near Garden City in southwest Kansas ranged from $2.80 to $2.98 per bushel – above the Finney County marketing loan rate of $2.19 per bushel.  When fall harvest begins in earnest it is possible that cash prices could fall to the loan rate in these areas due to tight local commercial storage.

Other market factors to consider that could affect the U.S. corn market in what remains of 2016 through mid-2017 include:

1) the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which will be placed in storage after fall harvest,

2) anticipation of continued strong use of carryover 2015 and new 2016 crop U.S. corn in domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding,

3) at least moderate strength in U.S. corn exports – driven largely by a poor harvest and lack of exportable supplies in Brazil in 2016, and

4) the possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets.  For example, unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve could affect U.S. interest rates, or geo-political events could occur that would “shock” World energy and grain markets.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

With USDA projections of 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 94.148 ma (up 6.149 ma from 2015), harvested acres of 86.550 ma (up 5.801 ma from 2015), record high projected yields of 174.4 bu/ac (vs 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 and the current record high of 171.0 bu/ac in 2014), 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 15.093 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, the current record of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.

With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.859 bb (record high), total use of 14.475 bb (record high), and projected ending stocks of 2.384 bb (16.47% S/U) – up from 1.716 bb (12.54% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16 and the highest since 4.259 bb (54.90% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $2.90-$3.50 (midpoint = $3.20 /bu) – being down from $3.60 /bu for “old crop” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.

KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a lower U.S. corn yields and production than the September 12th USDA WASDE report

KSU Scenario A) “Minor Crop Problems – 14.9 bb” Scenario (30% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 172.0 bu/ac yield, 14.887 bb production, 16.653 bb total supplies, 14.450 bb total use, 2.203 bb ending stocks, 15.25% S/U, & $3.35 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17; 

KSU Scenario B) “Moderate Crop Problems – 14.5 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 168.0 bu/ac yield, 14.540 bb production, 16.306 bb total supplies, 14.344 bb total use, 1.962 bb ending stocks, 13.68% S/U, & $3.50 /bu U.S. corn avg. price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;

KSU Scenario C) “More Serious Crop Problems – 14.2 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 14.194 bb production, 15.190 bb total supplies, 14.239 bb total use, 1.721 bb ending stocks, 12.09% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn avg. price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;

World Corn Supply-Demand:

World corn production of 1,026.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 959.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,013.6 mmt in MY 2014/15.

World corn total supplies of 1,235.9 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,167.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,188.9 mmt in MY 2014/15.  World corn exports of 139.8 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 119.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 141.7 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 219.5 mmt (21.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 209.25 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 208.3 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY 2014/15.

Brazil Corn Production Trends

Brazil corn production in “old crop” MY 2015/16 (1st crop harvested in January-May 2016, 2nd crop harvested in May-August) is estimated to be 67.0 mmt, down 18.0 mmt (down 21.2%) from 85.0 mmt in MY 2014/15.  This shortfall in Brazilian corn production in 2016 has provided some support for U.S. corn exports and even ethanol production (via exports). But expectations of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop have had a predominant negative impact on U.S. corn market prices to date.  Brazilian corn production is forecast by the USDA to rebound back to 82.5 mmt in MY 2016/17 (2017 production).

China Corn Production & Ending Stocks Trends

China corn production in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (harvested in September-October 2016) is estimated to be 216.0 mmt, down 8.6 mmt (down 3.8%) from 224.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, but marginally higher than 215.65 mmt in MY 2014/15.

Most of the focus in World corn markets is on Chinese ending stocks.  Ending stocks of corn in China are projected to be 103.65 mmt (45.9% SU) in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down from 110.7 mmt (50.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but up from 110.5 mmt (49.7% S/U) in MY 2014/15.

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KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Approaching Fall Harvest in Kansas with Storage Challenges & Wide Grain Basis

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, August 26th will be place up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website tomorrow at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSRN_GrainOutlook_08-26-16.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, August 26th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  Later today the program can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…

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2016 KSU Risk and Profit Conference – Soybean Market Outlook (Bill Tierney – AgResource)

The Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics held is 2016 Risk and Profit Conference on Thursday-Friday, August 18-19, 2016 in Manhattan, Kansas.

Following are parts of the presentation by Bill Tierney, Chief Economist at AgResource, Chicago, Illinois titled A Long-Term View of Crop Prices: The Landscape Has Changed for US Crop Ag“.  

Following is Bill Tierney bio info:

Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr. PhD, is the Chief Economist for AgResource Company (Chicago). He joined the firm in October 2011. He has over 35 years of experience as an agricultural economist primarily in the area of
global crop market analysis. For 20 years Bill was a Professor in the Department of Ag Economics at Kansas State University. From 2003-2006, Bill served as the USDA’s Principal Grains Economist. In that capacity, Bill was in charge of the USDA’s monthly supply/demand projections and price forecasts for wheat and feed grains.
Other positions that Bill has held include: (1) Exec VP for Research for a national brokerage firm that served mostly US ethanol plants; (2) Head of North American Research for an international agribusiness consulting firm; (3) General Manager of Doane Advisory Services; and (4) Senior Ag Analyst for a Cargill commodity hedge fund. Just prior to joining AgResource, Bill served in Iraq for a year as a senior agricultural advisor for the US government. Bill is a graduate of Michigan State University and the University of Missouri.

This presentation was given on Friday, August 19th in the morning session.

Here is the part of that presentation focusing on Long Term Soybean Market Outlook

Long Term Soybean Market Outlook (Tierney – AgResource)

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2016 KSU Risk and Profit Conference – Corn Market Outlook (Bill Tierney – AgResource)

The Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics held is 2016 Risk and Profit Conference on Thursday-Friday, August 18-19, 2016 in Manhattan, Kansas.

Following are parts of the presentation by Bill Tierney, Chief Economist at AgResource, Chicago, Illinois titled A Long-Term View of Crop Prices: The Landscape Has Changed for US Crop Ag“.  

Following is Bill Tierney bio info:

Dr. William I. Tierney, Jr. PhD, is the Chief Economist for AgResource Company (Chicago). He joined the firm in October 2011. He has over 35 years of experience as an agricultural economist primarily in the area of
global crop market analysis. For 20 years Bill was a Professor in the Department of Ag Economics at Kansas State University. From 2003-2006, Bill served as the USDA’s Principal Grains Economist. In that capacity, Bill was in charge of the USDA’s monthly supply/demand projections and price forecasts for wheat and feed grains.
Other positions that Bill has held include: (1) Exec VP for Research for a national brokerage firm that served mostly US ethanol plants; (2) Head of North American Research for an international agribusiness consulting firm; (3) General Manager of Doane Advisory Services; and (4) Senior Ag Analyst for a Cargill commodity hedge fund. Just prior to joining AgResource, Bill served in Iraq for a year as a senior agricultural advisor for the US government. Bill is a graduate of Michigan State University and the University of Missouri.

This presentation was given on Friday, August 19th in the morning session.

Here is the part of that presentation focusing on Long Term Corn Market Outlook

Long Term Corn Market Outlook (Tierney – AgResource)

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