Key Supply-Demand Factors “Driving” Grain Markets (KSU Extension Ag Economics)

The following presentation on “Key Supply-Demand Factors ‘Driving” Grain Markets” was given on Tuesday, March 14, 2017 to the AgEcon 605 class on “Price Analysis and Forecasting” as a guest lecture.  The class is regularly taught by Dr. Richard Llewelyn of the Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics.

This presentation focuses on the key factors that have been “driving” or influencing grain markets over the last 15-25 years.   The full presentation will be available on the KSU Agricultural Economics website at the following web location:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/OBrien_GrainMarketDrivers_03-15-17.pdf

 

 

 

Grain Market Update (3rd of 5 parts) – Graphics of U.S. Grain Sorghum Market Outlook

In the following charts is the third of five blog posts illustrating parts of the “Grain Market Outlook for 2017” presentation given by Kansas State University Extension Agricultural Economist Daniel O’Brien.  The complete presentation will be available on the www.AgManager.info website provided by the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University .

This third of five (5) related blog posts provides information on Grain Sorghum Market Situation and Outlook.

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Grain Market Update (2nd of 5 parts) – Graphics of U.S. Corn Market Outlook

In the following charts is the second of five (5) blog posts illustrating parts of the “Grain Market Outlook for 2017” presentation given by Kansas State University Extension Agricultural Economist Daniel O’Brien.  The complete presentation will be available on the www.AgManager.info website provided by the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University .

This second of five (5) related blog posts provides information on Corn Market Situation and Outlook.

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KSU Grain Sorghum and World Coarse Grain Market Outlook in December 2016 – USDA Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

An analysis of U.S. Grain Sorghum and World Coarse Grain supply-demand factors and 2017 price prospects following the USDA’s December 9th World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports will be available shortly on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary of the article on U.S. Grain Sorghum & World Coarse Grain Market Outlook – with the full article and accompanying analysis available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter

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Summary

Overview

Since the USDA’s December 9th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, MARCH 2016 CME corn futures have trended lower.  On the day of the report, MARCH 2016 corn futures closed at $3.59 ½ per bushel, and then moved to a high of $3.63 on December 15th, before declining to a close of $3.49 ¾ on Thursday, December 29th.  The USDA’s forecast of a 462 million bushel (mb) 2016 U.S. grain sorghum crop along with record large 2016 U.S. corn crop of 15.226 billion bushels (bb), along with large 2016/17 marketing year U.S. feedgrain ending stocks of 64.8 million metric tons (mmt) – up 35%-38% from the previous two marketing years – and have continued to pressure both U.S. grain sorghum and corn market prices.

Cash grain sorghum prices in Kansas

Cash bids for grain sorghum in Kansas on December 29th were near $2.50 per bushel in many locations, with ethanol plants and some export oriented locations at $2.85-$3.05 /bu..

At major grain elevators in western Kansas, cash grain sorghum prices were in the range of $2.40 – $2.55 /bu on Thursday, December 29th with basis levels $0.95 to $1.10 under CME MARCH 2017 Corn futures.  As low as these prices were, they were still markedly higher than county FSA marketing loan rates of $1.76-$1.90 per bushel.  Similarly, central Kansas cash grain sorghum prices were in the range of $2.48 – $2.84 /bu with basis levels $1.02 to $0.65 under MARCH 2017 Corn, but still above local FSA loan rates of $1.85-$1.93 /bu..  At Topeka in east central Kansas, a higher bid was reported of $3.05 /bu (basis = $0.45 under).  Kansas ethanol plant bids for grain sorghum ranged from $2.84 ¾ to $2.89 ¾, with basis at $$0.60-$0.65 under MARCH 2017 Corn futures.  Just as with corn, wheat, and soybeans, current cash bids for grain sorghum are below cost of production in most instances – although to a degree high yields in 2016 has helped to mitigating this factor.

Although the existing “large supply and tight storage availability” situation predominates in local Kansas grain sorghum and corn markets in late December 2016, it is a positive sign that usage of these crops has provided enough market support so that Kansas cash prices have not fallen down to USDA loan rate – price support levels during the 2016 harvest and immediate post-harvest period.

Other Feedgrain Market Considerations

Other market factors to consider that could affect the U.S. feedgrain markets in 2017 include: 1) the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 grain sorghum and corn crops – much of which had been placed in storage after the 2016 fall harvest and likely will be held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017, 2) anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. feedgrains for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding, 3) at least moderate strength in U.S. grain sorghum exports – driven partly by a poor Brazilian feedgrain harvest and lack of exportable supplies in earlier in 2016, as well as other World coarse grain market factors, and 4) the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017.

For example, U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2017 could lead to increases in U.S. interest rates and the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, which could in turn have a negative impact on U.S. grain sorghum exports.  Also, World geo-political events could provide  unanticipated “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets.  The impact on the direction of U.S. and World grain sorghum and corn markets from these potential disruptions is difficult to anticipate or predict.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “Current” MY 2016/17

The USDA has projected of 2016 U.S. sorghum plantings of 6.761 ma, harvested acres of 6.045 ma, record high yields of 76.5 bu/ac (vs 76.0 bu/ac in 2015 and 67.6 bu/ac in 2014), resulting in a 2016 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 462 mb – down from 597 mb in 2015, but above 433 mb in 2014, and 392 mb in 2013.

With forecast “current” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 500 mb, total use of 465 mb, and projected ending stocks of 35 mb (7.48% S/U), U.S. grain sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $2.80-$3.30 (midpoint = $3.05 /bu).  Ending stocks of 35 mb (7.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17 compare to 37 mb (6.28% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and 18 mb (4.10% S/U) in MY 2004/05.  United States grain sorghum prices of $3.05 /bu in “current” MY 2016/17 continue the downward trend from $3.31 /bu in MY 2015/16, $4.03 in MY 2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $6.33 /bu in the drought year of MY 2012/13.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18

With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. sorghum plantings of 6.300 ma (down 461,000 acres), harvested acres of 5.400 ma (down 645,000 acres), projected yields of 67.1 bu/ac (vs the record high of 76.5 bu in 2016), 2017 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 362 mb – down from 462 mb in 2016, and 597 mb in 2015.

With forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 397 mb (down from 500 mb last year and 620 mb the year before), total use of 365 mb (down from 465 mb last year and 583 the year before), and projected ending stocks of 32 mb (8.76% S/U) – down from 35 mb (7.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17 – U.S. sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.10 /bu.

Note: This is a “large U.S. feedgrain crop” – “no major U.S. or Foreign crop problem” scenario.  Emerging production threats and the actual outcome of 2017 U.S. grain sorghum and corn production will drive the U.S. grain sorghum market in “next crop” MY 2017/18.

World Coarse Grain Supply-Demand

Record high World coarse grain production of 1,329.35 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 6.4% from 1,249.65 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 1.8% from 1,306.1 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Record high World coarse grain total supplies of 1,574.15 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,495.0 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,517.2 mmt in MY 2014/15.  “Coarse grains” include grain sorghum, corn, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.

World coarse grain exports of 185.2 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 12.4% from 164.8 mmt in MY 2015/16, and down 0.5% from 186.1 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Projected record high World coarse grain ending stocks of 254.9 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 244.8 mmt (19.6% S/U) in MY 2015/16, but down from 245.4 mmt (19.3% S/U) in MY 2014/15.

Although World coarse grain ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “new crop” MY 2016/17 at 254.9 mmt, World coarse grain percent ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are forecast to actually decline marginally to 19.3% – indicative that strong World demand for coarse grains at low prices is expected to continue – especially in Europe where grain production has been hampered by extreme weather conditions in the last year.

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Corn and Grain Sorghum Market Analysis – Graphics Focusing on Russell, Kansas (via KSU)

Following are a set of graphics showing key trends and relationships in U.S. and World Corn and Grain Sorghum markets.  These selected corn and grain sorghum supply-demand relationships are among those most likely to impact U.S. agricultural imports and therefore U.S. grain prices.

These slides are part of a larger “Grain Market Outlook for 2017” presentation which is located on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) in the “Grain Marketing” section (http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing).

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KSU Corn Market Outlook in October 2016: Strong Demand holds Kansas Corn Prices Above Marketing Loan at Harvest

This article provides an analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and price prospects for both the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year following the USDA’s October 12, 2016 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in October 2016″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website (www.AgManager.info) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter/corn-market-outlook-october-2016

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Summary

Overview

Since the USDA’s October 12th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports, DEC 2016 CME corn futures has trended higher from a close of $3.37 per bushel on the day of the report, to a high of $3.58 ¾ on October 14th, before closing at $3.53 ¾ on October 18th with nearly 50% of the U.S. corn harvest complete.  The USDA’s forecast of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop over 15 billion bushels (bb) and ending stocks of near 2.3 bb have continued to be the primary focus of the U.S. corn market.

Cash Corn Markets in Kansas vs Marketing Loan Rates

Cash corn prices in Kansas have declined to near or below $3.00 per bushel, but have not fallen as low as marketing loan rates.  For example, on October 19th, cash corn prices near Salina, Kansas in the central part of the state ranged from $2.81 to $2.95 per bushel –above the Saline County marketing loan rate of $2.05 per bushel.  Similarly, cash corn prices near Garden City in southwest Kansas ranged from $3.02 to $3.05 per bushel – above the Finney County marketing loan rate of $2.19 per bushel.  Although fall harvest is approximately 75%+ completed in Kansas with the situation of large supplies and tight storage availability to deal with in local grain markets, it is an encouraging signal for corn demand that cash corn prices have not fallen down to loan rate – price support levels.

Other Corn Market Factors in 2017

Other market factors to consider that could affect the U.S. corn market in what remains of 2016 through mid-2017 include: 1) the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which will be placed in storage after fall harvest, 2) anticipation of continued strong use of “new crop” 2016 U.S. corn in domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding, 3) at least moderate strength in U.S. corn exports – driven partly by a poor harvest and lack of exportable supplies in Brazil in 2016 as well as other World corn market factors, and 4) the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets in later 2016 and 2017.

For example, unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve could affect U.S. interest rates which could affect U.S. corn exports.  Also, World geo-political events could provide an unanticipated “shock” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

With USDA projections of 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 94.490 ma (up 6.491 ma from 2015), harvested acres of 86.836 ma (up 6.087 ma from 2015), record high projected yields of 173.4 bu/ac (vs 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 and the previous record high of 171.0 bu/ac in 2014), 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 15.057 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, the current record of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.

With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.845 bb (record high), total use of 14.525 bb (record high), and projected ending stocks of 2.320 bb (15.97% S/U) – up from 1.738 bb (12.72% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16 and the highest since 4.259 bb (54.90% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $2.95-$3.55 (midpoint = $3.25 /bu) – being down from $3.61 /bu for “old crop” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 70% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.

Alternative KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

Two alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, each gauging the likelihood of lower U.S. corn yields and production than projected by the USDA in the October 12th USDA WASDE report.

KSU Scenario A) “172.5 bu/ac – 14.979 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes: 94.490 ma planted, 86.836 ma harvested, 172.5 bu/ac yield, 14.979 bb production, 16.717 bb total supplies, 14.525 bb total use, 2.192 bb ending stocks, 15.09% S/U, & $3.35 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;

KSU Scenario B) “171.0 bu/ac – 14.849 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 94.490 ma planted, 86.836 ma harvested, 171.0 bu/ac yield, 14.849 bb production, 16.637 bb total supplies, 14.525 bb total use, 2.112 bb ending stocks, 14.54% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;

World Corn Supply-Demand

Record high World corn production of 1,025.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 959.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,014.4 mmt in MY 2014/15.

Record high World corn total supplies of 1,235.7 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,168.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 1,189.7 mmt in MY 2014/15.  World corn exports of 143.8 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 119.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 141.7 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 216.8 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 210.9 mmt (21.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 208.9 mmt (21.3% S/U) in MY 2014/15.  Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “new crop” MY 2016/17 at 216.8 mmt, World corn percent ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are forecast to actually decline to 21.3% – indicative of expected continued strong World demand for corn at low prices – especially in Europe where grain production has been hampered by extreme weather conditions.

Brazil Corn Supply-Demand

Brazil corn production in “old crop” MY 2015/16 (1st crop harvested in January-May 2016, 2nd crop harvested in May-August) is estimated to be 67.0 mmt, down 18.0 mmt (down 21.2%) from 85.0 mmt in MY 2014/15.  This shortfall in Brazilian corn production in 2016 has provided support for U.S. corn exports and even ethanol production (via exports). However, expectations of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop have had a predominant negative impact on U.S. corn market prices through late summer and early fall.  Brazilian corn production is forecast by the USDA to rebound back to 83.5 mmt in MY 2016/17 (2017 production).  Uncertainty about Brazilian corn production prospects in 2017 could be a major factor impacting U.S. and World corn prices in the coming spring and summer months of 2017.

China Corn Supply-Demand

China corn production in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (harvested in September-October 2016) is estimated to be 216.0 mmt, down 8.6 mmt (down 3.8%) from 224.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, but marginally higher than 215.65 mmt in MY 2014/15.  A major focus in World corn markets is on the size of Chinese ending stocks and on recent changes in China’s domestic corn stock management policies.  Ending stocks of corn in China are projected to be 103.7 mmt (45.9% SU) in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down from 110.7 mmt (50.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but up from 100.5 mmt (49.7% S/U) in MY 2014/15.  Over the last three marketing years, percent ending stocks-to-use of corn for China ranging from 49.7% to 50.9% are the highest since MY 2002/03 (51.6%).  During the interim MY 2003/04 to MY 2013/14 period, Chinese corn percent ending stocks-to-use averaged 30.5%, ranging from 25.2% to 39.1%.

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KSU Corn Market Outlook in September 2016: Comparing “Likely” USDA vs “Possible” KSU 2016 Corn Market Outcomes

This article provides an analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and price prospects for the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year following the USDA’s September 12, 2016 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports is available on the KSU AgManager website:  http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in September 2016″ with the full article and accompanying analysis soon to be available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-market-outlook-newsletter

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Summary

Overview

Since the USDA’s September 12th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, DEC 2016 CME corn futures first trended lower from a close of $3.39 ½ per bushel on the day of the report, to a low of $3.26 ½ on September 14th, before trending back higher to close at $3.40 on September 22nd with the bulk of fall harvest approaching.   The USDA’s continued forecast of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop over 15 billion bushels (bb) and ending stocks of near 2.4 bb have continued to be the focus of the U.S. corn market.

Cash corn prices in Kansas have declined below $3.00 per bushel, but have not yet fallen to the marketing loan rate.  For example, on September 22nd, cash corn prices near Salina, Kansas in the central part of the state ranged from $2.63 to $2.80 per bushel – still above the Saline County marketing loan rate of $2.05 per bushel.  Similarly, cash corn prices near Garden City in southwest Kansas ranged from $2.80 to $2.98 per bushel – above the Finney County marketing loan rate of $2.19 per bushel.  When fall harvest begins in earnest it is possible that cash prices could fall to the loan rate in these areas due to tight local commercial storage.

Other market factors to consider that could affect the U.S. corn market in what remains of 2016 through mid-2017 include:

1) the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which will be placed in storage after fall harvest,

2) anticipation of continued strong use of carryover 2015 and new 2016 crop U.S. corn in domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding,

3) at least moderate strength in U.S. corn exports – driven largely by a poor harvest and lack of exportable supplies in Brazil in 2016, and

4) the possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets.  For example, unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve could affect U.S. interest rates, or geo-political events could occur that would “shock” World energy and grain markets.

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

With USDA projections of 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 94.148 ma (up 6.149 ma from 2015), harvested acres of 86.550 ma (up 5.801 ma from 2015), record high projected yields of 174.4 bu/ac (vs 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 and the current record high of 171.0 bu/ac in 2014), 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 15.093 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, the current record of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.

With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.859 bb (record high), total use of 14.475 bb (record high), and projected ending stocks of 2.384 bb (16.47% S/U) – up from 1.716 bb (12.54% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16 and the highest since 4.259 bb (54.90% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $2.90-$3.50 (midpoint = $3.20 /bu) – being down from $3.60 /bu for “old crop” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.

KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a lower U.S. corn yields and production than the September 12th USDA WASDE report

KSU Scenario A) “Minor Crop Problems – 14.9 bb” Scenario (30% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 172.0 bu/ac yield, 14.887 bb production, 16.653 bb total supplies, 14.450 bb total use, 2.203 bb ending stocks, 15.25% S/U, & $3.35 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17; 

KSU Scenario B) “Moderate Crop Problems – 14.5 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 168.0 bu/ac yield, 14.540 bb production, 16.306 bb total supplies, 14.344 bb total use, 1.962 bb ending stocks, 13.68% S/U, & $3.50 /bu U.S. corn avg. price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;

KSU Scenario C) “More Serious Crop Problems – 14.2 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 14.194 bb production, 15.190 bb total supplies, 14.239 bb total use, 1.721 bb ending stocks, 12.09% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn avg. price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;

World Corn Supply-Demand:

World corn production of 1,026.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 959.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,013.6 mmt in MY 2014/15.

World corn total supplies of 1,235.9 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,167.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,188.9 mmt in MY 2014/15.  World corn exports of 139.8 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 119.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 141.7 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 219.5 mmt (21.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 209.25 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 208.3 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY 2014/15.

Brazil Corn Production Trends

Brazil corn production in “old crop” MY 2015/16 (1st crop harvested in January-May 2016, 2nd crop harvested in May-August) is estimated to be 67.0 mmt, down 18.0 mmt (down 21.2%) from 85.0 mmt in MY 2014/15.  This shortfall in Brazilian corn production in 2016 has provided some support for U.S. corn exports and even ethanol production (via exports). But expectations of a record large 2016 U.S. corn crop have had a predominant negative impact on U.S. corn market prices to date.  Brazilian corn production is forecast by the USDA to rebound back to 82.5 mmt in MY 2016/17 (2017 production).

China Corn Production & Ending Stocks Trends

China corn production in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (harvested in September-October 2016) is estimated to be 216.0 mmt, down 8.6 mmt (down 3.8%) from 224.6 mmt in MY 2015/16, but marginally higher than 215.65 mmt in MY 2014/15.

Most of the focus in World corn markets is on Chinese ending stocks.  Ending stocks of corn in China are projected to be 103.65 mmt (45.9% SU) in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down from 110.7 mmt (50.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but up from 110.5 mmt (49.7% S/U) in MY 2014/15.

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