KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Updated U.S. Corn and Wheat Supply-Demand and Price Scenarios for MY 2017/18

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments supporting the Grain Market Update presented in the KSU Agriculture Today radio program to be played on Friday, August 4, 2017 are available on the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following KSU web address:


The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, November 17, 2017 on the K-State Radio Network (KSU Agriculture Today Radio) – web player available. A copy of the August 4th recording will be available at the KSU Agriculture Today website.

Following are sections of the Working notes for this week’s radio program up on the KSU AgManager.info website…


“Railroad Rates for Wheat” Article – USDA Grain Transportation Report (June 15, 2017)

The USDA Agricultural Market News service published an article on “Railroad Rates for Wheat” in the June 15, 2017 edition of the Grain Transportation Report.

The article addresses the potential causes of higher rail transportation costs that currently exist for U.S. wheat than for other U.S. grains over similar rail routes.  The full June 15, 2017 USDA Grain Transportation Report is available at the following web address:


Following is the key feature article of this report addressing “Railroad Rates for Wheat

USDA Grain Transportation Report – Overview of U.S. Grain Transportation and Exports in March 2017

The March 30th USDA Grain Transportation Report from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service focuses focuses on grain transportation and export trends critical to U.S. grain markets.   The pace of U.S. grain exports in the “current” 2016/17 marketing years for U.S. corn and soybeans is evidenced in these numbers and their impact on the U.S. rail, river, truck, and ocean transportation systems.

This report also shows the amount of U.S. hard red winter wheat exports relative to other U.S. classes of grain, and also where and by what means grain is flowing in the U.S. (i.e., via the Mississippi and Missouri River System to the Gulf of Mexico, rail to the Pacific Northwest, and via the St. Lawrence Seaway)

This is great information to consider in trying to understand the factors affecting U.S. grain markets.   Following is a selection of the information in this report, with a full report provided at the USDA AMS website.


Key Supply-Demand Factors “Driving” Grain Markets (KSU Extension Ag Economics)

The following presentation on “Key Supply-Demand Factors ‘Driving” Grain Markets” was given on Tuesday, March 14, 2017 to the AgEcon 605 class on “Price Analysis and Forecasting” as a guest lecture.  The class is regularly taught by Dr. Richard Llewelyn of the Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics.

This presentation focuses on the key factors that have been “driving” or influencing grain markets over the last 15-25 years.   The full presentation will be available on the KSU Agricultural Economics website at the following web location:





Soybean Market Outlook – KSU Ag Profitability Conference, Saint John, KS, January 21, 2016

Following is an updated presentation on “2016 Soybean Market Outlook” to be presented at the Kansas State University Ag Profitability Conference in Saint John, Kansas on Thursday, January 21, 2016.   The full presentation is available  on the KSU www.AgManager.info website at the following web address:


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U.S. Corn Transportation Profile from the USDA Ag Marketing Service – August 2014

The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service has published a Corn Transportation Profile (August 2014).  This report was authored by Marina R. Denicoff, Marvin E. Prater, and Pierre Bahizi.

Following is the Executive Summary, with the full report available at the following web address:  http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/getfile?dDocName=STELPRDC5108805

Executive Summary

America’s farmers depend on transportation as the critical link between the fields of growers and the tables of consumers, both here and abroad. Transportation is a derived demand because the production and consumption of an agricultural commodity create the demand for transportation services. As such, it is an essential part of marketing; any change in supply or demand of the underlying commodity or commodities that compete for transportation services can affect the transport system’s efficiency by bringing about either shortages or surpluses in transportation capacity. This report examines transportation implications of the recent trends and outlook for U.S. corn.

Key highlights:

* Since the mid-1990’s, U.S. corn production has increased by 88 percent, but acreage devoted to growing corn has increased by only 34 percent. As demand for corn increased dramatically between 2006 and 2013, especially for ethanol production, U.S. farms responded by boosting production and acreage.

* The United States remains the world’s largest exporter of corn. The U.S. market share of world corn exports, however, has been declining as the world corn trade has been increasing.

* Corn prices, transportation costs, and the price of feed substitutes (such as distillers’ dried grains and feed-quality wheat) influence foreign demand for U.S. corn. Unexpected changes in export demand pose logistical challenges for U.S. grain shippers and carriers.

* If the projected long-term growth in corn exports materializes over the next 10 years, demand for barge and rail services will increase because corn exporters rely on these two modes of transportation to move the crops from the primary production regions of the United States to the ports on the West Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Great Lakes.

* The projected increase in feed use could also result in additional demand for truck and rail service.

* Lower total transportation costs are a major variable in keeping U.S. agriculture competitive in overseas markets.

* The majority of corn exports are shipped through the Mississippi Gulf Coast (65 percent of 2013 corn exports), but ocean shipping cost spreads between the Mississippi Gulf Coast (MGC) and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) exceeding $30 generally lead to a greater proportion of Asia-bound corn being shipped by rail to ports in the PNW.

Following are couple of the key graphics from the USDA AMS report, dealing with “2013 U.S. Corn Production, Ethanol Plants, Export Port Regions, and the GCAUs by State” (Figure 5), and “Corn Export Inspections by Port Region, 2013” (Figure 8).:

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KSU Canola SC KS Crop Budgets and Market Outlook – Feb. 12, 2014

As part of a Winter Crops Meeting in Kingman, Kansas on Wednesday, February 12,  south central Kansas canola crop budgets and market supply/demand/price prospects were provided to an audience of 40 people.  The full presentation is available online at the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following are some of the key slides from today’s presentation pertaining to Canola production, profitability, and marketing.  The full presentation is available on the KSU AgManager.info website at the following web address:



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