Key Supply-Demand Factors “Driving” Grain Markets (KSU Extension Ag Economics)

The following presentation on “Key Supply-Demand Factors ‘Driving” Grain Markets” was given on Tuesday, March 14, 2017 to the AgEcon 605 class on “Price Analysis and Forecasting” as a guest lecture.  The class is regularly taught by Dr. Richard Llewelyn of the Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics.

This presentation focuses on the key factors that have been “driving” or influencing grain markets over the last 15-25 years.   The full presentation will be available on the KSU Agricultural Economics website at the following web location:

http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/OBrien_GrainMarketDrivers_03-15-17.pdf

 

 

 

Soybean Market Outlook – KSU Ag Profitability Conference, Saint John, KS, January 21, 2016

Following is an updated presentation on “2016 Soybean Market Outlook” to be presented at the Kansas State University Ag Profitability Conference in Saint John, Kansas on Thursday, January 21, 2016.   The full presentation is available  on the KSU www.AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/GrainOutlook_StJohn_01-21-16.pdf

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U.S. Corn Transportation Profile from the USDA Ag Marketing Service – August 2014

The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service has published a Corn Transportation Profile (August 2014).  This report was authored by Marina R. Denicoff, Marvin E. Prater, and Pierre Bahizi.

Following is the Executive Summary, with the full report available at the following web address:  http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/getfile?dDocName=STELPRDC5108805

Executive Summary

America’s farmers depend on transportation as the critical link between the fields of growers and the tables of consumers, both here and abroad. Transportation is a derived demand because the production and consumption of an agricultural commodity create the demand for transportation services. As such, it is an essential part of marketing; any change in supply or demand of the underlying commodity or commodities that compete for transportation services can affect the transport system’s efficiency by bringing about either shortages or surpluses in transportation capacity. This report examines transportation implications of the recent trends and outlook for U.S. corn.

Key highlights:

* Since the mid-1990’s, U.S. corn production has increased by 88 percent, but acreage devoted to growing corn has increased by only 34 percent. As demand for corn increased dramatically between 2006 and 2013, especially for ethanol production, U.S. farms responded by boosting production and acreage.

* The United States remains the world’s largest exporter of corn. The U.S. market share of world corn exports, however, has been declining as the world corn trade has been increasing.

* Corn prices, transportation costs, and the price of feed substitutes (such as distillers’ dried grains and feed-quality wheat) influence foreign demand for U.S. corn. Unexpected changes in export demand pose logistical challenges for U.S. grain shippers and carriers.

* If the projected long-term growth in corn exports materializes over the next 10 years, demand for barge and rail services will increase because corn exporters rely on these two modes of transportation to move the crops from the primary production regions of the United States to the ports on the West Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Great Lakes.

* The projected increase in feed use could also result in additional demand for truck and rail service.

* Lower total transportation costs are a major variable in keeping U.S. agriculture competitive in overseas markets.

* The majority of corn exports are shipped through the Mississippi Gulf Coast (65 percent of 2013 corn exports), but ocean shipping cost spreads between the Mississippi Gulf Coast (MGC) and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) exceeding $30 generally lead to a greater proportion of Asia-bound corn being shipped by rail to ports in the PNW.

Following are couple of the key graphics from the USDA AMS report, dealing with “2013 U.S. Corn Production, Ethanol Plants, Export Port Regions, and the GCAUs by State” (Figure 5), and “Corn Export Inspections by Port Region, 2013” (Figure 8).:

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KSU Canola SC KS Crop Budgets and Market Outlook – Feb. 12, 2014

As part of a Winter Crops Meeting in Kingman, Kansas on Wednesday, February 12,  south central Kansas canola crop budgets and market supply/demand/price prospects were provided to an audience of 40 people.  The full presentation is available online at the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following are some of the key slides from today’s presentation pertaining to Canola production, profitability, and marketing.  The full presentation is available on the KSU AgManager.info website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/Wheat-Outlook_Presentation_Kingman_02-12-14.pdf

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KSU Wheat SC KS Crop Budgets and Market Outlook – Feb. 12, 2014

As part of a Winter Crops Meeting in Kingman, Kansas on Wednesday, February 12,  south central Kansas wheat crop budgets and market supply/demand/price prospects were provided to an audience of 40 people.  The full presentation is available online at the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following are some of the key slides from today’s presentation.  The full presentation is available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/crop_outlook/Wheat-Outlook_Presentation_Kingman_02-12-14.pdf

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Kansas Wheat, Feedgrains, and Soybean Market “Origins”, “Destinations”, and Cash Prices (KSU MAST Info)

Another part of the Kansas State University MAST Program (Management, Analysis, and Strategic Thinking) this fall (here) that participants will have the option of learning about are “Origins” and “Destinations” for Kansas Wheat, Corn, Grain Sorghum, and Soybeans, part of the MAST session/module on “Grain Handling and Transportation from Farm to Delivery Point“.

Following is the section on “Origins” and “Destinations” for Kansas Wheat, Corn, Grain Sorghum, and Soybeans.

MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 18 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 19 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 20 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 21 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 22 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 23 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 24 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013  MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 25 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 27 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 28 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 29 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 30 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 31 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 32 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 33 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013  MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 34 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 35 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 36 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013

U.S. Grain Market Origins, Destinations, and “Directional Flows” (KSU Info)

As part of the Kansas State University MAST Program (Management, Analysis, and Strategic Thinking) this fall (here) participants will have the option of learning about a broad range of relevant, strategic issues related to the U.S. agricultural industry. One of those topics is “Grain Handling and Transportation from Farm to Delivery Point“.

Following is one section of the “Grain Handling…” presentation dealing with “Economic Principles of Grain Price Competition in Local-Regional Grain Markets”.

MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 3 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 4 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 5 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 6 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 7 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 8 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 9 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 10 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 11 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 12 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 13 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 14 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 15 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013 MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 16a (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013MAST Econ Principles of Grain Handling_slide 17 (O'Brien) Sept 3, 2013