Trends in U.S. Crop Planted Acres, Production, & Crop Revenues (2000-2016)

Kansas State University published an article titled “Trends in U.S. Crop Planted Acres, Production, & Crop Revenues” on Friday, July 22, 2016.   The full article is located on the KSU Agmanager.info website at the following address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/AcreageTrends.asp

Following are the summary and supporting graphics of the article, dealing with longer term trends in U.S. crop planted acreage, production, and crop production revenues among major crops over the year 2000 through projected 2016 period.  It is notable that 2016 U.S. crop revenue projections were down in 2015, and are projected to be even lower in most cases for 2016.

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Summary

Overview

Over the year 2000-2016 time period there has been a significant expansion in both planted acres and production of corn and soybeans in the United States.  Primary factors causing these changes have been the growth that has occurred in corn-based ethanol production in the United States and in Chinese soybean export demand in the World soybean market since year 2000.   When converted to a common per unit of weigh, it is noteworthy that U.S. production of corn on a crop-weight basis is predominant, followed in order by all hay produced, soybeans, wheat, grain sorghum, cotton, barley, oats, and sunflower.

Projected revenues for the MY 2016/17 marketing years for each of the major U.S. crop crops considered here – corn, soybeans, wheat, grain sorghum, cotton, barley, oats, and sunflowers – are down from average revenues for those same crops since and including 2010.  These findings reinforce concerns about weakening U.S. crop enterprise-related financial conditions in the United States in the near term.

U.S. Corn Trends

After achieving high production revenue amounts for U.S. corn in the 2011/12 and 2012/13 marketing years in the range of $74.155 – $76.651 billion dollars, corn revenues have declined as U.S. corn supplies have increased and prices have subsequently declined over the 2013/14 through projected 2016/17 marketing year period.  Projected U.S. corn production revenue of approximately $49.436 billion from the July 12th WASDE report is down nearly 36% from the MY 2011/12 high of $76.651 billion.

U.S. Soybean Trends

After achieving high production revenue amounts in the 2012/13 and 2013/14 marketing years in the range of $43.583 – $43.723 billion dollars, soybean revenues have declined as U.S. soybean prices have fallen over the 2013/14 through projected 2016/17 marketing year period.  Projected U.S. soybean production revenue of approximately $36.680 billion from the July 12th WASDE report is down nearly 16% from the MY 2012/13 high of $45.583 billion.

U.S. Wheat Trends

While planted acres of U.S. wheat have declined over the 2000-2016 period, U.S. wheat production has been unchanged-to-increasing slightly over the period due to increased wheat yields.  With inflation in wheat prices, actual wheat revenues have trended higher over the 2000-2016 period.  However, since year 2000 U.S. wheat production revenues have fallen sharply with the implicit USDA projection of $8.592 billion for MY 2016/17 being down from the range of $10.203 – 17.383 billion over the 2010-2015.  Weakening U.S. wheat exports in recent years following from several consecutive large World wheat crops are a primary cause of the current “large supply / low price / low revenue” situation that exists in the U.S. wheat farm sector.

U.S. Grain Sorghum Trends

While planted acres of U.S. grain sorghum have generally declined over the 2000-2016 period, they sharply increased over the 2013-2016 period.  Helped by strong trade demand from China during 2013-2015, U.S. producers responded by increasing U.S. grain sorghum acreage and production of.  However, with a change in Chinese domestic feedgrain stocks management policies and decreased for U.S. grain sorghum imports, U.S. grain sorghum prices and projected revenues have declined.  Production revenues are projected to be $1.323 billion for MY 2016/17, which is down 36% from the record high of $2.081 billion in MY 2015/16, and at the lowest level since $1.260 billion in MY 2011/12.

U.S. Cotton Trends

Planted acres of U.S. cotton have generally declined over the 2000-2016 period, but U.S. cotton production has on-average trended sideways – owing to increasing U.S. cotton yields.  Production revenues for U.S. cotton have been highly variable over time – with $3.862 billion in MY 2015/16 being a seven (7) year low, and the implicit forecast of $4.475 billion for MY 2016/17 by the USDA still being below the 2010-2016 U.S. average of $5.614 billion.

U.S. Sunflower Trends

Planted acres of U.S. sunflowers have also generally declined over the 2000-2016 period.  However, U.S. sunflower production – while being quite variable over time – has trended higher since the 2010, especially in 2015 and 2016.  Production revenues for U.S. sunflowers have trended moderately lower since MY 2010/11, with the July 12th implicit USDA estimate of $493 million being less than the 2010-2016 average of $559 million.

U.S. All Hay Trends

While harvested acres of all hay in the U.S. have trended lower over the 2000-2016 period, production has generally been unchanged – again owing to increasing yields for U.S. hay over time.  Production revenues for U.S. hay of all types have trended higher over the 2000-2016 period, although the July 12th implicit USDA estimate of $17.362 billion is moderately less than the 2010-2016 average of $17.774 billion.

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