Key Factors “Driving” Grain Market Supply-Demand and Prices since 1998

Following is a presentation given on Thursday, February 4, 2016 at the 2016 Texas AgriLife Master Marketer Program in Abilene, Texas (

This presentation on “Grain Market Supply-Demand Drivers” was part of a larger morning session on “Grain Supply-Demand Fundamentals“, which included information and discussion on wheat, corn and grain sorghum market situation and outlook.

The ideas for this presentation were sparked initially from a report for the Farm Foundation in July 2011 titled “What’s Driving Food Prices in 2011“, but Purdue University Agricultural Economists Philip C. Abbott, Christopher Hurt, and Wallace E. Tyner.  (

The factors that Abbott, Hurt and Tyner identified in that 2011 report that were instrumental in U.S. and World grain market direction during the 1998-2011 period have continued to have predominant influences on grain markets in the succeeding years – being largely responsible (along with outstanding crops in the World and U.S. over the last three years!) for the current “large supply – low price” grain price situation that currently exists. Thanks to Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner for their thoughtful work!

Following are excerpts from the February 4th presentation in Abilene, Texas.  A full version of this presentation will be available on the Kansas State University website in coming days.

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