In the following set of slides is the “Wheat Market Outlook for 2015-2016” presented by at the 2015 Extension Outlook Conference in Louisville, Kentucky on Friday, August 14th. This information was presented by Daniel O’Brien, Ph.D., Extension Agricultural Economist for Kansas State University. This information will also be available shortly on the Kansas State University AgManager website, i.e., www.agmanager.info
These predictions differ from those of the USDA in its August 12th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report in terms of prices. Given the same supply demand balance information for the “new crop” 2015/2016 Marketing, the USDA projects U.S. wheat season average prices to be in the range of $4.65 – $5.55 per bushel, with a midpoint of $5.10 /bu. These KSU projections indicate that there is a 70% probability that the USDA supply-demand projections are correct, but that prices will average $5.50 (rather than the $5.10 midpoint of the USDA forecast). These KSU numbers also predict that there is a 30% likelihood that an accumulation of wheat production problems will accumulate enough during the remainder of the 2015/16 marketing year that U.S. wheat exports will be markedly higher, leading to lower wheat feeding and ending stocks, and prices closer to $6.00 for “new crop” MY 2015/16.