KSU Soybean Market Outlook in Early May 2015 – Heading into the 2015 Planting and Growing season

An analysis of U.S. and World soybean supply-demand factors and 2015-2016 price prospects following the USDA’s April 9th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports either is available on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp). Following is a summary of the article on Soybean Market Outlook – with the full article and accompanying analysis available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Soybeans.asp ************************

Summary

Introduction

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on April 9th, soybean futures prices have moved sideways-to-higher. Near term U.S. soybean market price prospects are limited by a) record high 2014 South American and U.S. soybean crops, b) prospects for record or near-record South American and U.S. soybean production and ending stocks again 2015, and c) the rising value of the U.S. dollar – putting U.S. soybeans at a disadvantage to those available from South America (with their “weaker” currencies). Soybean price prospects seem limited until at least late May-June 2015 – the main U.S. soybean planting season. After that, 2015 U.S. soybean production prospects are likely to influence soybean markets through fall harvest.

USDA U.S. Soybean Projection for “current crop” MY 2014/15

The USDA maintained its forecast of record 2014 U.S. soybean production of 3.969 billion bushels (bb) – up 611 million bushels (mb) from 3.358 bb in 2013. For “current crop” MY 2014/15, USDA projected U.S. total supplies at a record 4.091 billion bushels (bb) (up 5 mb), crush at 1.795 bb, exports at a record 1.790 bb, record total use at 3.721 bb (up 20 mb), and ending stocks at an 8 year high of 370 mg (down 15 mb). Ending stocks-to-use are projected at 9.94% – up from the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14. The USDA forecast “current crop” MY 2014/15 prices to be in the range $9.60-$10.60 (midpoint of $10.10 /bu) – down from $13.00 in MY 2013/14, and from $14.40 in MY 2012/13.

USDA & KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16

Adjusting the USDA forecast from USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum for more current planted acreage estimates, the following projection is obtained: for 2015 and “next crop” MY 2015/16: 84.635 ma planted, 82.615 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 3.800 bb production, 4.241 bb total supplies, 3.775 bb total use, 466 mb ending stocks, 12.34% S/U, and $9.00 /bu price. Alternative KSU forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are as follows: A) KSU “Normal Crop” Scenario: 80% prob. of 84.635 ma planted, 83.615 ma harvested, trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.771 bb 2015 production, 4.161 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.730 bb total use, 431 mb end stocks (vs 370 mb in 2014/15), 11.55% ending S/U (vs 9.94% in MY 2014/15), & $9.60 /bu (vs $10.10 in MY 2014/15). B) KSU “Short” Scenario: 20% prob. of 84.635 ma planted, 83.615 ma harvested, low yield of 40.0 bu/ac, 3.345 bb 2015 production, 3.745 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.493 bb total use, 252 mb end stocks, 7.21% ending S/U (vs 9.94% in MY 2014/15), & $11.20 /bu (vs $10.10 in MY 2014/15).

World Soybean Supply-Demand

Record high projected World soybean production of 315.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is forecast to be up from 283.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and from 268.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. Forecast South American “current crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production is as follows: Brazil (94.5 mmt – up 7.8 mmt from a year earlier), Argentina (57.0 mmt – up 3.0 mmt), and Paraguay (8.5 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), totaling 160.0 mmt (up 11.1 mmt or 7.5% from 148.9 mmt last year). World soybean exports of 117.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 112.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up from 100.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. Record high projected World soybean ending stocks of 89.6 mmt (31.0% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 66.3 mmt (24.3% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and up from 57.4 mmt (22.0 % S/U) in MY 2012/13. With the USDA projecting “next crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. soybean prices at $9.00 /bu, an implied World soybean percent stocks-to-use level of approximately 33.5% is implicitly projected – which would be a new record high by 3.5% over 31.0% in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This implied level of World soybean stocks-to-use does not adjust for potential impacts of current U.S. currency exchange rates, which would likely lower this implied World soybean % stocks-to-use to somewhere in the range of a minimum of 31.0% to less than 33.5%.   https://i1.wp.com/farmprogress.com/cdfm/Faress1/author/198/2014/4/control_weeds_spring_burndown_1_635336394376912000.jpg

Contol of Weeds with Spring Burndown Herbicide Treatments (Source: http://farmprogress.com/story-control-weeds-spring-burndown-9-111481)

https://i2.wp.com/unitedsoybean.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/No-till_habitat_buffer_strip_Lloyd_Farm_KS.jpg

Considering No-till Soybeans (Source: http://unitedsoybean.org/article/no-till-and-soybean-yields/)

https://i1.wp.com/www.kgs.ku.edu/Extension/KSplaces/jpegs/Cedarbluff.jpg

Cedar Bluff Reservoir, Near Wakeeney, Kansas (Source:http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Extension/KSplaces/visit17.html )

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s