KSU “Quick Analysis of the Numbers” of the 3/31/2015 USDA Prospective Plantings Report

Today on March 31, 2015 the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2015 Prospective Plantings Report and its March 1, 2015 Quarterly Stocks Report.  There were a number of market surprises in the Prospective Plantings report, including:

1) larger than expected 2015 U.S. corn plantings (89.199 million acres – up 468,000 acres from prereport expectations, but still down 1.398 mln ac. from last year),

2) smaller than anticipated 2015 U.S. soybean plantings (84.635 mln. ac. – down 1.284 mln ac from prereport expectations but still up 934 mln ac. from a year ago),

3) larger than expected 2015 U.S. other spring wheat plantings (12.969 mln ac. – down 365,000 acres from prereport expectations, and down 56,000 acres from last year),

4) smaller than anticipated 2015 U.S. cotton plantings (9.549 mln ac. – down 280,000 acres from prereport expectations, and down 1.488 mln acres from a year earlier),

5) smaller than anticipated 2015 U.S. grain sorghum plantings (7.900 mln ac. – down 229,000 acres from prereport expectations, but still up 762,000 acres from a year earlier), and

6) larger than expected 2015 U.S. barley plantings (3.528 mln ac. – up 331,000 acres from prereport expectations, and up 553,000 acres from last year).

Total 2015 U.S. cropland and harvested hay and tobacco acres of approximately 378.5 million acres is projected to be a) down 2.9 million acres from 2014 (381.3 mln ac.), b) down 1.987 mln ac. from 2013 (380.4 mln ac.), and c) up 935,000 acres from the drought ravage year of 2012 (377.5 mln ac.).  Those skeptical about the results of this report in regards to U.S. corn (too high?), soybean (too low), grain sorghum (too low?), and spring wheat (too low?) planted acres will scrutinize the state-by-state changes projected in this report.  The margin of error projected by the USDA in this report leaves ample room for changes that may yet occur in these numbers – due to planting conditions, changing planting decisions by farmers, etc.

Following are the tables from a “Quick Analysis of the Numbers” of the USDA 2015 Prospective Plantings report that is available on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/) at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp

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The Great Kansas Outdoors (Source: http://www.kansashunting.com/)

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