KSU Soybean Market Outlook in March 2015 – Questions of 2015 U.S. Soy Acreage and Production Lay Ahead

An analysis of U.S. and World soybean supply-demand factors and 2015-2016 price prospects following the USDA’s March 10th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports either is available on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary of the article on Soybean Market Outlook – with the full article and accompanying analysis available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Soybeans.asp

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Summary

Overview

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on March 10th, MAY 2015 and NOV 2015 soybean futures prices have traded generally lower, but have followed a volatile price pattern. Near term U.S. soybean market price prospects are limited by a) record high 2014 South American and U.S. soybean crops, b) prospects for record or near-record South American and U.S. soybean production and ending stocks again 2015, and c) the rising value of the U.S. dollar – putting U.S. soybeans at a disadvantage to those available from South America (with their weaker currencies). Unless substantial crop production or soybean export availability problems occur very soon in South America, price prospects seem limited until at least May-June 2015 – the main U.S. soybean planting season. After that, 2015 U.S. soybean production prospects are likely to influence soybean markets through fall harvest. The March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings report is likely to have a major impact on U.S. soybean prices, providing direction as to whether the USDA expectation of no increase in 2015 U.S. soybean planted acres, or that of market analysts’ expecting a 1-4 million acre increase is correct.

USDA U.S. Soybean Projection for “current crop” MY 2014/15

The USDA maintained its forecast of record 2014 U.S. soybean production of 3.969 billion bushels (bb) – up 611 million bushels (mb) from 3.358 bb in 2013. For “current crop” MY 2014/15, USDA maintained its projections of U.S. total supplies at a record 4.086 billion bushels (bb), crush at 1.795 bb, exports at a record 1.790 bb, record total use at 3.701 bb, and ending stocks at an 8 year high of 385 million bushels (mb). Ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 10.4% – up from the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14. The USDA forecast “current crop” MY 2014/15 prices to be in the range $9.45-$10.95 with a midpoint of $10.20 /bu – down from $13.00 and $14.40 the last two years.

USDA & KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16

In the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum the USDA projected the following for 2015 and “next crop” MY 2015/16: 83.5 ma planted, 82.6 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 3.800 bb production, 4.205 bb total supplies, 3.775 bb total use, 430 mb ending stocks, 11.39% S/U, and $9.00 /bu price.

Alternative KSU forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are as follows:

A) KSU “Same Acreage” Scenario: 40% prob. of 83.701 ma planted (same as 2014), 82.692 ma harvested, trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.729 bb 2015 production, 4.129 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.730 bb total use, 399 mb end stocks (vs 385 mb in 2014/15), 10.70% ending S/U (vs 11.40%), & $10.10 /bu (vs $10.20 last year).

B) KSU “Up 2 Million Acres” Scenario: 60% prob. of 85.701 ma planted (up 2.0 ma) and 84.668 ma harvested (up 1.607 ma), trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.818 bb 2015 production, 4.218 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.760 bb total use, 458 mb end stocks, 12.18% ending S/U, & $9.60 /bu.

World Soybean Supply-Demand

Record high projected World soybean production of 315.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up from 283.7 mmt in MY 2013/14, and from 268.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. Forecast South American “current crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production is as follows: Brazil (94.5 mmt – up 7.8 mmt from a year earlier), Argentina (56.0 mmt – up 2.0 mmt), and Paraguay (8.5 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), totaling 159.0 mmt (up 10.1 mmt or 6.8% from 148.9 mmt last year). World soybean exports of 117.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 113.0 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up from 100.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. Record high projected World soybean ending stocks of 89.5 mmt (31.0% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 66.35 mmt (24.3% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and up from 57.4 mmt (22.0 % S/U) in MY 2012/13.

https://i1.wp.com/farmprogress.com/cdfm/Faress1/author/198/2014/4/control_weeds_spring_burndown_1_635336394376912000.jpg

Contol of Weeds with Spring Burndown Herbicide Treatments (Source: http://farmprogress.com/story-control-weeds-spring-burndown-9-111481)

https://i2.wp.com/unitedsoybean.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/No-till_habitat_buffer_strip_Lloyd_Farm_KS.jpg

Considering No-till Soybeans (Source: http://unitedsoybean.org/article/no-till-and-soybean-yields/)

https://i1.wp.com/www.kgs.ku.edu/Extension/KSplaces/jpegs/Cedarbluff.jpg

Cedar Bluff Reservoir, Near Wakeeney, Kansas (Source:http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Extension/KSplaces/visit17.html )

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