Results and Implications of the USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports of 3/31/2014

 

Following is a KSU Summary with market implications stemming from the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports.  The full report is available on the KSU Agmanager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/archives/GRAIN-OUTLOOK_04-01-14_Plantings-Stocks.pdf

Summary

On Monday, March 31st the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. The 2014 Prospective Plantings report provided the first actual survey-based information by the USDA on U.S. farmer’s cropping intentions for 2014. From this market analysts can begin examinations of 2014 U.S. crop production prospects, projected supply-demand balances, and prices for these crops in their respective “new crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The quarterly March 2014 Grain Stocks report provided grain markets with improved information on the pace of usage of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops in their respective “current” 2013/14 marketing years. Adjustments may occur to U.S. corn supply-demand projections for “current” MY 2013/14 in the upcoming April 9th USDA WASDE report.

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Grain Storage in Farm Country (Source: http://www.feedandgrain.com/)

 

The Prospective Plantings report projected 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage to be 91.691 million acres (ma), down over 1 million acres from pre-report trade expectations, and down 3.674 ma from 95.365 ma in 2013. In addition, 2014 U.S. soybean planted acres were forecast to be 81.493 ma, up 418,000 acres from pre-report average trade expectations, and up 4.960 ma from 76.533 ma in 2013. Expected 2014 plantings of U.S. wheat of 55.815 ma were down 462,000 acres from pre-report trade expectations, and 341,000 acres less than 56.156 ma of U.S. wheat planted in 2013. By category, projected 2014 U.S. winter wheat acreage was below both pre-report expectations and year ago levels. Other U.S. spring wheat acreage was projected to be below pre-report expectations in 2014, but still above year ago levels, while 2014 U.S. durum wheat acreage was projected to be higher than year ago levels.

The quarterly Grain Stocks report estimated that U.S. corn stocks on March 1st were 7.006 billion bushels (bb), down 93 mb from pre-report expectations, but still up from 6.023 bb a year ago. This lower than expected projection of U.S. corn March 1st stocks was a result of higher than expected U.S. corn usage during the December 2013 through February 2014 period. Calculated U.S. Dec-Feb 2014 U.S. corn use is 3.446 bb, up 119 mb from implied pre-report trade estimates, and down 177 mb from 3.623 bb in Dec-Feb 2013. Projected U.S. soybean and wheat March 1st stocks and associated usage during Dec-Feb 2014 were nearly as expected. Usage of U.S. wheat during Dec-Feb 2014 was less than a year ago, and usage of U.S. soybeans were markedly greater than a year ago during Dec-Feb 2013.

As a result of these reports, KSU supply-demand and price forecasts for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year were adjusted from projections made earlier in March. The United States’ 2014 corn, grain sorghum, and wheat crop production forecasts were generally lowered as a result of the lower planted acreage projections in these USDA reports – with an expected moderate increase in projected prices for these same crops. KSU “new crop” U.S. corn price projections were raised $0.10 to $0.35 per bushel from a month ago, while U.S. wheat price projections were unchanged to up $0.25 per bushel. Conversely, the large increase in projected U.S. soybean acres in 2014 has caused projections of “new crop” 2014 U.S. soybean production to jump significantly, leading to an increase in supply-demand balances, and to a marked decrease in expected “new crop” MY 2014/15 soybean prices – down to $10 per bushel and below. KSU “new crop” U.S. soybean price projections were lowered $0.50 in “expected” and “large production” scenarios, and by as much as $4.00 per bushel from a month ago in the “low production” supply-demand scenario.

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Corn versus Soybean Planting Decisions in 2014 (Source: http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/)

 

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