KSU “Quick Analysis” Calculations of USDA January Reports – Focusing on U.S. Corn Prodn., World Wheat, Coarse Grains and Soybeans

A KSU “quick analysis” worksheet of the key grain marketing-related information found in the January 10th USDA Annual Production Summary, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Quarterly Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings can be found on the Kansas State University AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/).

The specific web address for this downloadable MS Excel Spreadsheet is found here:  http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp


Winter in the U.S. Corn Belt (source: http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/)

The spreadsheet contains a comparison of USDA January 2014 forecasts with a) prereport trade estimates, b) the December 2013 USDA grain production, supply-demand, and price projections, and c) projections for a year ago.  Key information is contained on the following:

A. U.S. crop production forecasts for 2014 corn, soybeans and grain sorghum.

B. U.S. ending stocks projections for the “new crop” 2013/14 marketing year for major crops.

C. World ending stocks projections for the “new crop” 2013/14 marketing year for major crops

D. How the USDA’s December 1st Quarterly Stocks projections compared to pre-report expectations

E. Projections of U.S. winter wheat seeding acreage in the fall of 2013 for harvest in the summer of 2014, and inclusion in the supply-demand projections for the 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing year (i.e., June 1, 2014 through May 31, 2015)


Australia Wheat Harvest (source:  http://www.farmarco.com.au/)

The worksheet also contains a more extensive analysis of the January 10, 2014 WASDE report results in regards to World wheat, coarse grain, corn and soybean supply-demand results, focusing on country-by-country (or region-by-region in many cases) projections of production, imports, exports, domestic feed use, and ending stocks.


Black Sea Region Grain Harvest in 2013 (Source: http://www.producer.com/2013)


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