KSU Quarterly Grain Stocks and 2013 Small Grains Summary – Market Implications for U.S. Corn, Soybeans and Wheat

An analysis of the September 30th USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (here) and Small Grains 2013 Annual Summary (here) reports can be found on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary of the article on the USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains 2013 Summary – with the full analysis and article available on the KSU AgManager website – at http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Stocks.asp

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Summary

On September 30, 2013 the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Quarterly Grain Stocks and its Small Grains 2013 Summary reports from the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS).

Quarterly Stocks Report: The Quarterly Stocks Report indicated the amount of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybean stocks on September 1st along with grain disappearance during the June-August 2013 period.  On September 30, 2013 the USDA also released its report from NASS.

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Corn harvest in Kansas (source: http://aliveandwellinkansas.wordpress.com/tag/kansas-corn-harvest/)

Key findings of the report included a sizable increase in “old crop” 2012/13 marketing year U.S. corn ending stocks – up to 824 million bushels (mb) from the most recent September 12th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projection of 661 mb, and also above the upper end of the prereport trade estimate range of 552-765 mb.  A second key finding was that U.S. soybean ending stocks in “old crop” MY 2012/13 were 141 mb, up from 125 mb in the September 12th WASDE report, and up from the average pre-report trade estimate of 126 mb.  A third key finding was that U.S. wheat September 1st stocks in “new crop” MY 2013/14 were 1.855 billion bushels (bb), up from the average pre-report trade estimate of 1.938 bb.  The implication of this lower than expected amount of U.S. wheat on September 1st is that June-August 2013 was larger than expected, with summer 2013 livestock feeding being the likely category of greater than anticipated usage.  Grain sorghum stocks of 15 mb on September 1st in the U.S. were marginally larger than the USDA’s September 12th WASDE “old crop” MY 2012/13 ending stocks estimate of 13 mb, but equal to pre-report estimates.

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Grain Elevator in Argonia, Kansas in 2010 (source: http://rubberduckster.blogspot.com/2010)

Small Grains 2013 Summary:  The Small Grains 2013 Summary report indicated a number of notable changes in U.S. wheat production from previous estimates by type and category.  However, these changes largely offset each other – leading to a small increase in total 2013 U.S. wheat production from previous USDA projections.   Wheat production in 2013 was estimated to be 2.128 bb, up from 2.114 bb in the September 12th Crop Production report, and up from average pre-report trade expectations of 2.121 bb.  Lower estimated U.S. hard red winter wheat production was more than offset by larger than expected production from soft red winter, white winter, other spring, and durum wheat types.

Resulting Changes in USDA and KSU Supply-Demand and Price Forecasts:  As a result of these September 30th reports, it is likely that the USDA will make changes in its October 11th Crop Production and WASDE reports.  It is anticipated that projected supplies and ending stocks of U.S. corn and soybeans will increase, with prices lowered for “new crop” MY 2013/14.  Conversely, projected usage of U.S. wheat is anticipated to increase for “new crop” MY 2013/14, with projected ending stocks and stocks-to-use likely to decrease – with projected prices increasing.

Forecasts of how the results of these September 30th reports are likely to impact USDA and KSU supply-demand and price forecasts for “new crop” MY 2013/14 are provided for corn (Figure 1 and Table 1), soybeans (Figure 2 and Table 2), and wheat (Figure 3 and Table 3) in the full KSU article (see web address above). 

 

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