KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: 2013 Kansas Wheat Tour Results and Corn Planting Concerns

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook played on Friday, May 3rd  are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_05-03-13.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, May 3rd   on KFRM Radio (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

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On page 13 of this article the following two charts can be found that compare the projections of Kansas Wheat harvested acreage,  yields, and production from the 2013 Kansas Wheat Tour to 2005-2012 Kansas wheat production numbers (7.62 million harvested acres, 41.1 bu/ac, 313 million bushels of production).  Also, in the second chart, a production scenario is calculated with the same Kansas harvested acres (7.62 million acres), a lower final yield (i.e., 35.0 bu/ac), and 267 million bushels produced.  This last, lower production scenario is still a possibility given the late maturity of the crop and the difficulty in determining projected wheat yields in a year like 2013 with such “outside of the box” wheat crop conditions in the field.

2013 Kansas Wheat Tour Projections

KS Wheat Tour Results_Acreage_May 2, 2013

Key Findings re: Kansas Wheat Planted vs Harvested Acreage

  • Implicit Harvested acres of 7.62 million is lowest since at least 2005
  • Implied Harvested-to-Planted acres of 81.9% is lower than 82.7% in 2007
    • Historic Harvested-to-Planted lows: 74.6% in 1996, and 71.8% in 1989

KS Wheat Tour Results_Yield and Production_May 2, 2013

Key Findings re: Kansas Wheat Yields and Production

  • Est 2013 Yields of 41.1 just marginally lower than 2012 ð Still at risk and in doubt (35 bu/ac still possible?)
  • Est 2013 Production of 313 million bu (mb) down from 382 mb in 2012
    • IF instead 2013 Kansas Wheat Yields = 35 bu/acre, THEN with 7.62 mln ac harvested, prodn down to 267 mln bu (lowest Kanas wheat production since 255 mb in 1996 and 214 mb in 1989)
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