KSU 2013 Prospective Plantings Report Analysis

The USDA Prospective Plantings Report released on Thursday, March 28th can be found at the following web address: USDA NASS 2013 Prospective Plantings Report (3/28/2013)

An analysis by Kansas State University of the particulars of the Prospective Plantings report for U.S. Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Grain Sorghum, and Sunflowers can be found on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Planting.asp).

Following is a summary – with the full analysis-article released on April 3rd being available at the following web address

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Summary

The 2013 Prospective Plantings report released on Thursday, March 28th by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service indicates U.S. farmers’ intentions in 2013 to again plant corn acreage slightly larger than last year’s record high, as well as higher grain sorghum, winter and spring wheat areas, nearly the same amount of soybeans as last year, but less cotton.

2013 U.S. Corn Planted Acreage: Corn acreage in the U.S. in 2013 is projected to be a record high 97.28 million acres (mln ac), marginally more than in 97.16 mln ac in 2012.  With standard assumptions re: harvested acreage and trend line yields with normal weather, it is likely that 2013 U.S. corn production could be as large as 13.9 to 14.5 billion bushels – compared to 10.78 billion bushels (bb) in 2012 – with expected increases in “new crop” MY 2013/14 U.S. corn supply-demand balances to follow.  If a large 2013 U.S. corn crop and growing ending stocks occur, prospects increase for markedly lower U.S. and World corn prices in “new crop” 2013/14 marketing year.  Kansas 2013 corn planted acreage is projected to be 4.600 mln ac, down 100,000 acres from a year ago.

https://i0.wp.com/pods.wibwradio.com/feeds/media/01450_Planting-Corn.jpg

Kansas field work season approaching / nearly here

(Source: 2012 article from the Kansas Ag Network: http://kansasagnetwork.com/)

2013 U.S. Soybean Planted Acreage: Soybean acreage in the U.S. in 2013 is projected to be 77.13 mln ac, slightly below 77.20 mln ac planted in 2012.  This soybean acreage projection was 137,000 ac below the lower end of the range of pre-report trade estimates (i.e., 77.5 mln ac).  Assuming historic harvested-to-planted acreage relationships and trend line yields with normal weather, it is likely that 2013 U.S. soybean production could be near 3.3-3.4 billion bushels (bb) – compared to 3.015 bb in 2012.  Combined with larger South American soybean crop and export prospects in 2013, larger U.S. soybean supplies and supply-demand balances point toward a moderation in soybean prices in “new crop” MY 2013/14.  However, the strength of Chinese soybean and soybean product import demand will continue to be a key market determinant in the “new crop” 2013/14 marketing year.  Kansas 2013 soybean planted acreage is projected to be 3.900 mln ac, down 100,000 acres from a year ago.

2013 U.S. Winter & Spring Wheat Acreage:  Acreage of U.S. winter wheat is projected to be 41.99 mln ac, up from 41.32 mln ac in 2012.  Acreage of U.S. spring wheat is projected to be 12.70 mln ac, up from 12.29 mln ac in 2012.  Uncertainty about hard red winter wheat harvested acreage and the possible persistence of drought conditions in the central and southern plains add a larger degree of uncertainty to 2013 U.S. wheat production prospects.  With adjusted assumptions regarding smaller than normal winter wheat harvested acreage together with trend line yields with normal weather, it is likely that 2013 U.S. wheat production could be near 2.1-2.2 bb – compared to 2.269 bb in 2012.  Given at least adequate “old crop” wheat supply-demand balances and as yet unanswered questions about production prospects in other major World wheat exporters, wheat market price prospects are assumed to be “average” and/or “near current levels” at this point in time.   Kansas 2013 winter wheat planted acreage is projected to be 9.300 mln ac, down 200,000 acres from a year ago.

http://shelbylayne.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/img_1422.jpg

Thinking ahead to harvest

(Source: 2008 web entry from a western Kansas website: http://shelbylayne.wordpress.com/)

2013 U.S. Grain Sorghum Planted Acreage: Grain sorghum planted acreage in the U.S. in 2013 is projected to be 7.62 mln ac, up from 6.24 mln ac in 2012.  Grain sorghum market prospects closely follow those of corn – but prospects for larger grain sorghum supplies in 2013 following from larger acreage may help relieve the current tight “old crop” supply-demand situation in U.S. and World feedgrain markets.  Kansas 2013 grain sorghum planted acreage is projected to be 2.900 mln ac, up 400,000 acres from a year ago.

2013 Sunflowers & Cotton: Sunflower acreage in the U.S. in 2013 is projected to be 1.684 mln ac, down from 1.919 mln ac in 2012.  Cotton acreage is projected to be 10.026 mln ac in 2013, down from 12.315 mln ac in 2012. Increased corn acreage in the non-Corn Belt regions of the U.S. contributed to lower cotton area.

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