U.S. soybean supply-demand and price forecasts for MY2013/14 are available on the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/). These forecasts were provided to the public at the Cover Your Acres Conference in Oberlin, Kansas, January 15-16.
Projections for U.S. soybean supply-demand balances and prices for the coming year from that meeting are provided below:
The perspective provided in this U.S. soybean supply-demand balance and price forecast for MY 2013/14 is that there is likely a 1/5 (20%) chance for a short crop scenario for U.S. soybeans, with resulting higher prices. With planted acreage for soybeans at 77.0 million acres and 76.0 million harvested acres, the impact of a low U.S. soybean yields (say 39.0 bu/ac) with reasonable assumptions of usage, leads to U.S. ending stocks (130 mln bu) and ending stocks-to-use (4.2% S/U) which are very similar to current USDA projections for MY 2012/13 (i.e., 135 mb and 4.3% S/U). The “wildcard” in this scenario is U.S. soybean exports which could rise and/or fall based on the size of the 2013 South American soybean crop and/or the sustainability of Chinese soybean imports.
If these respective short crop marketing year scenarios should NOT come to fruition, with either trend (44.0 bu/ac) or above trendline (45.5 bu/ac, a new historic high), then production would be at 3.3-3.5 billion bushels or above, with prices falling to the range of $10.25-$11.50 per bushel.
Materials and Comments prepared by Daniel O’Brien, Ph.D., Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University