An analysis of the September 30th USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (here) and Small Grains 2014 Annual Summary (here) reports can be found on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).
Following is a summary of the article on the USDA Sept. 30th Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains Summary – with the full analysis and article available by the end of the day on October 2nd on the KSU AgManager website – at http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/archives/GRAIN-OUTLOOK_10-02-14_Stocks.pdf
On September 30, 2013 the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains 2014 Summary reports from the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). The Quarterly Stocks Report indicated the amount of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybean stocks on September 1st along with grain disappearance during June-August 2014.
Corn and Grain Sorghum
“Old crop” 2013/14 marketing year U.S. corn ending stocks increased from 1.181 billion bushels (bb) in the most recent September 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projection up to 1.236 bb in the 9/30 Quarterly Stocks report – which is up 50.5% from 821 million bushels (mb) from a year earlier on September 1, 2013. This USDA projection was 5.1% larger than the average pre-report trade estimate, but within the estimate range of 1.020-1.350 bb. Corn usage in the U.S. during June-August 2014 was 2.616 bb, up sharply from 1.985 bb in June-August 2013, and from 2.107 bb in June-August 2012. Grain sorghum stocks of 34 mb on September 1st in the U.S. were up from 15 mb on 9/1/2013, but less than 59 mb on 9/1/2012. Grain Sorghum usage in the U.S. during June-August 2014 was 58 mb, up sharply from 29 mb in June-August 2013, and from 36 mb in June-August 2012.
Corn harvest in Kansas (source: http://aliveandwellinkansas.wordpress.com/tag/kansas-corn-harvest/)
U.S. soybean Sept. 1st ending stocks in “old crop” MY 2013/14 were a record low 92 mb, down from 130 mb in the September 11th WASDE report, down 27% from the average pre-report trade estimate of 126 mb, and down from 141 mb on September 1, 2013. Soybean usage in the U.S. during June-August 2014 was 313 mb, down marginally from 318 mb in June-August 2013, and down sharply from 498 mb in June-August 2012. The USDA raised its estimate of 2013 U.S. soybean production by 69 mb to 3.358 bb, setting the stage for U.S. soybean supply-demand balance sheet adjustments to occur in the October 10, 2014 WASDE report.
September 1, 2014 U.S. wheat stocks of 1.914 bb were up 34 mb (up 1.8%) from pre-report trade expectations of 1.880 bb. This projection of 1.914 bb in ending stocks on 9/1/2014 is also up from 1.870 bb on 9/1/2013, but less than 2.105 bb on 9/1/2012. Wheat usage in the U.S. during June-August 2014 was 711 mb, down from 1.013 bb in June-August 2013, and from 929 mb in June-August 2012.
Grain Elevator in Argonia, Kansas in 2010 (source: http://rubberduckster.blogspot.com/2010)
Small Grains 2014 Summary
This report indicated a number of notable changes in 2014 U.S. wheat production from previous estimates by wheat type and category. However, these changes largely offset each other quantity-wise, leading to a small increase in total 2013 U.S. wheat production from previous USDA projections. United States’ wheat production in 2014 was estimated to be 2.035 bb, up marginally from 2.030 bb in the September 11th Crop Production report, and consistent with average pre-report trade expectations. Lower 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production was more than offset by larger production from soft red winter, white winter, other spring, and durum wheat types. Forecast production of “other spring wheat” was raised to 601 mb from earlier USDA projections of 572 mb, while projected “white winter” wheat production of 184 mb was down 17 mb from earlier USDA estimates.
Resulting Changes in USDA and KSU Supply-Demand and Price Forecasts
As a result of these September 30th reports, it is likely that the USDA will make some important changes in its October 10th Crop Production the and also in the supply-demand balance sheets and price forecasts in the 10/10/2014 WASDE report. It is anticipated that projected supplies and possibly ending stocks of U.S. corn, grain sorghum and wheat will increase, with these crops’ respective price projections lowered at least marginally for “new crop” MY 2014/15. Conversely, projected new crop beginning stocks and consequently supplies of U.S. soybeans are projected to decrease, providing at least some support for “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. soybean prices.