Soybean Market Outlook – 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conf., Manhattan, KS

Following are parts of the Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015 to be presented today at the 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conference (here).  The theme of this years conference is “Ag Policy – Here, There, Everywhere.” This year’s Risk and Profit Conference is being held at the Kansas State University Alumni Center, starting with registration this morning, Thursday, August 21st, and lasting through 3 p.m., Friday, August 22nd.  More information on the 2014 Risk and Profit can be found at KSU AgManager website: www.agmanager.info

Following is the full Soybean-related portion of today’s Grain Market Outlook Presentation.

Slide1 Slide8 Slide9 Slide10 Slide57 Slide58 Slide59 Slide60 Slide61 Slide62 Slide63 Slide64 Slide65 Slide66 Slide67 Slide68 Slide69 Slide70 Slide71 Slide72 Slide73

 

 

Wheat Market Outlook – 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conf., Manhattan, KS

Following are parts of the Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015 to be presented today at the 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conference (here).  The theme of this years conference is “Ag Policy – Here, There, Everywhere.” This year’s Risk and Profit Conference is being held at the Kansas State University Alumni Center, starting with registration this morning, Thursday, August 21st, and lasting through 3 p.m., Friday, August 22nd.  More information on the 2014 Risk and Profit can be found at KSU AgManager website: www.agmanager.info

Following is the full wheat portion of today’s Grain Market Outlook Presentation.

Slide1 Slide5 Slide6 Slide7 Slide35 Slide36 Slide37 Slide38 Slide39 Slide40 Slide41 Slide42 Slide43 Slide44 Slide45 Slide46 Slide47 Slide48 Slide49 Slide50 Slide51 Slide52 Slide52 Slide54 Slide55

 

 

Feedgrain Market Outlook – 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conf., Manhattan, KS

Following are parts of the Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015 to be presented today at the 2014 KSU Risk and Profit Conference (here).  The theme of this years conference is “Ag Policy – Here, There, Everywhere.” This year’s Risk and Profit Conference is being held at the Kansas State University Alumni Center, starting with registration this morning, Thursday, August 21st, and lasting through 3 p.m., Friday, August 22nd.  More information on the 2014 Risk and Profit can be found at KSU AgManager website: www.agmanager.info

Following is the full feedgrain portion of today’s Grain Market Outlook Presentation.

Slide1 Slide2 Slide3 Slide4 Slide15 Slide16 Slide17 Slide18 Slide19 Slide20 Slide21 Slide22 Slide23 Slide24 Slide26 Slide26 Slide27 Slide28 Slide29 Slide30 Slide31 Slide32 Slide33

 

 

Kansas Corn, Milo, HRW-Wheat, and Soybean Basis Charts: Garden City (SW), Salina (C) and Columbus (SE), Kansas (by Taylor and Llewelyn)

Following are a sample of the latest Grain Basis Charts made available on the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info).  These charts represent 2010-2014 basis levels through mid-August 2014 in Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeastern), Kansas.   Garden City is a primary market in southwest Kansas, near cattle feeding operations and not too distant from ethanol plants in the region.  Salina is a key grain handling and transportation hub in central Kansas, especially for corn, wheat, grain sorghum, and soybean markets.  Columbus in the southeast corner Kansas is located near the livestock feed markets in Arkansas for grain, and a regional grain market center in southeast Kansas.

Note some of the differences in the level and trends in grain basis across these areas of the state of Kansas.  For corn basis has been “level to uptrending” in recent weeks in Garden City and Columbus, but “downtrending” in Salina.  Basis for grain sorghum has been “level-to-uptrending” in Salina and Columbus in recent weeks, but trending “sideways” in Garden City.  Wheat basis has been “weakening” in recent weeks in Garden City, and especially in Salina, but less so in Columbus. The basis for soybeans has spiked sharply higher in all three Kansas locations in recent weeks, likely reflecting a temporarily tight “old crop” supply condition prior to the coming new crop harvest in September-October 2014.

The KSU grain basis charts utility has the ability to generate grain basis information for a large number of locations in Kansas as well as the surrounding states of Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle region.

The online web utility for Kansas Grain Basis maps is available at the following web addresses:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/basis/

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/basis/tools/

These charts are generated by Kansas State University Agricultural Economics faculty and staff, with leadership by Mykel Taylor and Rich Llewelyn.

A. Corn Basis Bids (2010-2014): Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeast), Kansas

Slide1 Slide2 Slide3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

B. Grain Sorghum Basis Bids (2010-2014): Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeast), Kansas

Slide4 Slide5 Slide6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

C. Hard Red Winter Wheat Basis Bids (2010-2014): Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeast), Kansas

Slide7 Slide8 Slide9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

D. Soybean Basis Bids (2010-2014): Garden City (southwest), Salina (central), and Columbus (southeast), Kansas

Slide10 Slide11 Slide12

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Looking to August 12th USDA Reports and Considering Russia’s Actions

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook played on Friday, August 8th are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_08-08-14.pdf

The recorded radio program was aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, August 8th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available. After the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section later on August 8th: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

http://www.hutchpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Soybeans.jpg

Kansas Soybean Field in late summer 2012 (Source of picture: http://www.hutchpost.com/2012/10/11/)

http://kansastravel.org/06giantvangogh3.jpg

A Sunflower Field near Goodland, Kansas in past years (Source: http://kansastravel.org/giantvangough.htm)

https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4101/4773280398_d4afcefdfb_z.jpg

The Kansas Countryside (Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/robynohsh/4773280398/)

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Large Crop Consensus – Trending down to fall (Unless?)

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, August 1st are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_08-01-14.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, August 1st on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  The recording of the program will also be available to be listened to later on Friday, August 1st via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

http://www.kscorn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Vinduska-Corn-595x292.jpg

A Kansas Corn Field in Summer, 2014 (Source of image: www.kscorn.com)

http://www.kssorghum.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/doctored-sky.jpg

Grain Sorghum Field in Kansas (Source: www.kssorghum.com)

http://nwksradio.com/files/2014/07/NewsPhoto5.jpg

Soybean fields in Kansas pre-2014 (Source: http://todayinkansas.com/spike-in-soybean-plants-corn-sags/)

 

 

Kansas Corn, Milo, HRW-Wheat, and Soybean Basis Charts: Scott City, Hutchinson and Topeka, Kansas (by Taylor and Llewelyn)

Following are a sample of the latest Grain Basis Charts made available on the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info).  These charts represent 2010-2014 basis levels through mid-July 2014 in Scott City (western), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (eastern), Kansas.   Scott City is a primary market in west central Kansas, near cattle feeding operations and not too distant from ethanol plants in Campus and Garden City, Kansas.  Hutchinso is a key grain handling and transportation hub in central Kansas, especially for wheat, grain sorghum, and soybean markets.  Topeka in east central Kansas is an important central rail transportation hub for grain, and a regional receiving location for crop production in northeast and east central Kansas.

Note some of the differences in the level of grain basis across these areas of the state of Kansas, especially for corn (stronger in Scott City than in Hutchinson and Topeka), grain sorghum (a little stronger in Hutchinson), wheat (weaker in Scott City than in Hutchinson and Topeka), and soybeans (weaker in Scott City than in Hutchinson or Topeka).

The KSU grain basis charts utility has the ability to generate grain basis information for a large number of locations in Kansas as well as the surrounding states of Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle region.

The online web utility for Kansas Grain Basis maps is available at the following web addresses:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/basis/

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/basis/tools/

These charts are generated by Kansas State University Agricultural Economics faculty and staff, with leadership by Mykel Taylor and Rich Llewelyn.

A. Corn Basis Bids (2010-2014): Scott City (west central), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (east central), Kansas

B. Grain Sorghum Basis Bids (2010-2014): Scott City (west central), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (east central), Kansas

C. Hard Red Winter Wheat Basis Bids (2010-2014): Scott City (west central), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (east central), Kansas

D. Soybean Basis Bids (2010-2014): Scott City (west central), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (east central), Kansas

U.S. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market-Profitability Graphics (via KSU AgManager)

Following are some graphics on economic trends in the U.S. ethanol industry, which will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website: http://www.agmanager.info/    The full presentation titled “U.S. Ethanol & Biodiesel Market Situation” made for WILL (Illinois Public Radio) on Thursday, July 24th will be located at the KSU AgManager.info website – at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/Ethanol-Market_WILL-Radio_07-25-14.pptx

Slide1 Slide2 Slide3 Slide4 Slide5 Slide6 Slide7 Slide8 Slide9 Slide10 Slide11 Slide12 Slide13 Slide14 Slide15 Slide16 Slide17

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Large Crop Scenarios Settling in for U.S. Corn-Soybeans

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, July 25th  are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_07-25-14.pdf

 

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, July 25th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

http://kansasagnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Kansas-Corn-Field.jpg

Positive reports on Kansas Fall Crop Development (Source of image: http://kansasagnetwork.com/2014/kansas-fall-crops-continue-to-be-better/)

http://nwksradio.com/files/2014/07/NewsPhoto5.jpg

A Kansas Soybean Field – early July 2014(Source: http://todayinkansas.com/spike-in-soybean-plants-corn-sags/)

KSU Soybean Market Outlook in July 2014

An analysis of U.S. and World soybean supply-demand factors and 2014 price prospects following the USDA’s July 11th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports can be found on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp) early next week.

Following is a summary of the article on Soybean Market Outlook – with the full article and accompanying analysis to be available likely on Monday, July 21st on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Soybeans.asp

************************

Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, July 11, 2014, U.S. soybean market prices have responded negatively – moving sharply lower on the day of the report, then recovering and moving in a volatile, generally sideways-to-lower trading range through July 18th. Until the end of June, U.S. soybean prices in 2014 had been supported by continued Chinese demand and uncertainty about 2014 crop production prospects in the United States. However, both old and new crop soybean market prices have moved sharply lower in anticipation of burdensome market supplies in Fall 2014.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast for “Old Crop” MY 2013/14

Adjustments were also made to several “current” 2013/14 marketing year usage categories, including projected imports (85 million bushels or ‘mb’), domestic crushings (1.725 billion bushels or ‘bb’ – up mb), exports (1.620 bb – up 20 mb), residual (-69 mb, down from 0 mb), ending stocks (140 mb – up 15 mb), ending stocks-to-use (4.14% – up from 3.68%), and average price ($13.00 – down $0.10 per bu). The negative soybean residual figure raises questions about potential adjustments to supply or use categories in the 2013/14 U.S. soybean balance sheet in future WASDE reports.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

In these reports, forecasts of U.S. 2014 planted (84.839 million acres or ‘ma’) and harvested (84.058 ma) acres from the June 30th USDA Acreage report were used along with internal projections of 2014 soybean yields and production – figures that are still uncertain and subject to change in upcoming USDA reports. U.S. soybean production in 2014 was forecast to be a record high 3.800 bb – up 511 mb from a year earlier. Domestic crush was projected to be 1.755 bb – up 40 mb from the June WASDE, while exports were forecast to be 1.620 bb, up 55 mb from a year ago.

Forecast “new crop” 2014/15 ending stocks were also raised to 415 mb (up 90 mb from June, and up 275 mb from a year ago), while ending stocks-to-use were projected to be 11.7% (up from 9.4% in June, and from 4.14% in MY 2013/14).  The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 average prices will be $9.50-$11.50 with a midpoint of $10.50 – down $0.25 /bu from June. It is important to remember that the first actual survey-based projection of 2014 U.S. soybean production will be available in the August 12th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dqtgPpoOjoc/UDWYXgVoP0I/AAAAAAAAADM/yXbnn62ZWvQ/s640/94c4078+(soybean+field3).jpg

A U.S. Soybean Field in August 2012 (Source: http://isaaablog.blogspot.com/2012)

 

KSU U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

KSU forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are as follows:

a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 50% prob. of 84.839 ma planted ac., 84.058 ma harvested ac., 43.0 bu/ac yield, 3.614 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.774 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.720 bb crush, 1.625 bb exports, 3.456 bb total use, 318 mb ending stocks, 9.2% S/U, & $10.75 /bu;

b) “High Production” Scenario: 35% prob. of 85.058 ma planted ac., 84.983 ma harvested ac., trend yields of 44.3 bu/ac, 3.765 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.920 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.755 bb crush, 1.675 bb exports, 3.541 bb total use, 379 mb ending stocks, 10.7% S/U, & $10.00 /bu, and

c) “Low Production” Scenario: 15% prob. of 83.906 ma planted, 83.133 ma harvested, lower yields of 39.0 bu/ac, 3.242 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.412 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.600 bb crush, 1.500 bb exports, 3.202 bb total use, 210 mb ending stocks, 6.6% S/U, & $11.75 /bu.

 

http://www.ozy.com/pictures/anyx296/5/0/9/8509_42-44816539.jpg

South American Export Infrastructure (Source: http://www.ozy.com/wildcard/ozy-on-latin-america/)

 

World Soybean Supply-Demand

World production of 304.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up from 283.9 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and from 268.0 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World soybean ending stocks of 85.3 mmt (30.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 67.2 mmt (24.9% S/U) in “current” MY 2013/14, and up from 56.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13.

Combined “new crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt – unchanged) is projected to be up 3.5 mmt. That said, with a large 2014 U.S. soybean crop harvest anticipated to be available in World grain export markets in Fall 2014 through late winter-spring 2015, and larger South American carryover stocks expected from “old crop” MY 2013/14, it is anticipated that World soybean production and supplies will be larger and prices sharply lower in “new crop” MY 2014/15 than a year ago.

http://bradmangas.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/RLSU_5670.jpg

Kansas Country Roads – Pictures by Brad Mangas (Source: http://bradmangas.com/kansas-country-roads/)