Kansas Corn, Milo, HRW-Wheat, and Soybean Basis Charts: Scott City, Hutchinson and Topeka, Kansas (by Taylor and Llewelyn)

Following are a sample of the latest Grain Basis Charts made available on the KSU AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info).  These charts represent 2010-2014 basis levels through mid-July 2014 in Scott City (western), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (eastern), Kansas.   Scott City is a primary market in west central Kansas, near cattle feeding operations and not too distant from ethanol plants in Campus and Garden City, Kansas.  Hutchinso is a key grain handling and transportation hub in central Kansas, especially for wheat, grain sorghum, and soybean markets.  Topeka in east central Kansas is an important central rail transportation hub for grain, and a regional receiving location for crop production in northeast and east central Kansas.

Note some of the differences in the level of grain basis across these areas of the state of Kansas, especially for corn (stronger in Scott City than in Hutchinson and Topeka), grain sorghum (a little stronger in Hutchinson), wheat (weaker in Scott City than in Hutchinson and Topeka), and soybeans (weaker in Scott City than in Hutchinson or Topeka).

The KSU grain basis charts utility has the ability to generate grain basis information for a large number of locations in Kansas as well as the surrounding states of Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle region.

The online web utility for Kansas Grain Basis maps is available at the following web addresses:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/basis/

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/basis/tools/

These charts are generated by Kansas State University Agricultural Economics faculty and staff, with leadership by Mykel Taylor and Rich Llewelyn.

A. Corn Basis Bids (2010-2014): Scott City (west central), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (east central), Kansas

B. Grain Sorghum Basis Bids (2010-2014): Scott City (west central), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (east central), Kansas

C. Hard Red Winter Wheat Basis Bids (2010-2014): Scott City (west central), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (east central), Kansas

D. Soybean Basis Bids (2010-2014): Scott City (west central), Hutchinson (central), and Topeka (east central), Kansas

U.S. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market-Profitability Graphics (via KSU AgManager)

Following are some graphics on economic trends in the U.S. ethanol industry, which will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website: http://www.agmanager.info/    The full presentation titled “U.S. Ethanol & Biodiesel Market Situation” made for WILL (Illinois Public Radio) on Thursday, July 24th will be located at the KSU AgManager.info website – at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/Ethanol-Market_WILL-Radio_07-25-14.pptx

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KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Large Crop Scenarios Settling in for U.S. Corn-Soybeans

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, July 25th  are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_07-25-14.pdf

 

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, July 25th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

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Positive reports on Kansas Fall Crop Development (Source of image: http://kansasagnetwork.com/2014/kansas-fall-crops-continue-to-be-better/)

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A Kansas Soybean Field – early July 2014(Source: http://todayinkansas.com/spike-in-soybean-plants-corn-sags/)

KSU Soybean Market Outlook in July 2014

An analysis of U.S. and World soybean supply-demand factors and 2014 price prospects following the USDA’s July 11th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports can be found on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp) early next week.

Following is a summary of the article on Soybean Market Outlook – with the full article and accompanying analysis to be available likely on Monday, July 21st on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Soybeans.asp

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Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, July 11, 2014, U.S. soybean market prices have responded negatively – moving sharply lower on the day of the report, then recovering and moving in a volatile, generally sideways-to-lower trading range through July 18th. Until the end of June, U.S. soybean prices in 2014 had been supported by continued Chinese demand and uncertainty about 2014 crop production prospects in the United States. However, both old and new crop soybean market prices have moved sharply lower in anticipation of burdensome market supplies in Fall 2014.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast for “Old Crop” MY 2013/14

Adjustments were also made to several “current” 2013/14 marketing year usage categories, including projected imports (85 million bushels or ‘mb’), domestic crushings (1.725 billion bushels or ‘bb’ – up mb), exports (1.620 bb – up 20 mb), residual (-69 mb, down from 0 mb), ending stocks (140 mb – up 15 mb), ending stocks-to-use (4.14% – up from 3.68%), and average price ($13.00 – down $0.10 per bu). The negative soybean residual figure raises questions about potential adjustments to supply or use categories in the 2013/14 U.S. soybean balance sheet in future WASDE reports.

USDA U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

In these reports, forecasts of U.S. 2014 planted (84.839 million acres or ‘ma’) and harvested (84.058 ma) acres from the June 30th USDA Acreage report were used along with internal projections of 2014 soybean yields and production – figures that are still uncertain and subject to change in upcoming USDA reports. U.S. soybean production in 2014 was forecast to be a record high 3.800 bb – up 511 mb from a year earlier. Domestic crush was projected to be 1.755 bb – up 40 mb from the June WASDE, while exports were forecast to be 1.620 bb, up 55 mb from a year ago.

Forecast “new crop” 2014/15 ending stocks were also raised to 415 mb (up 90 mb from June, and up 275 mb from a year ago), while ending stocks-to-use were projected to be 11.7% (up from 9.4% in June, and from 4.14% in MY 2013/14).  The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 average prices will be $9.50-$11.50 with a midpoint of $10.50 – down $0.25 /bu from June. It is important to remember that the first actual survey-based projection of 2014 U.S. soybean production will be available in the August 12th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.

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A U.S. Soybean Field in August 2012 (Source: http://isaaablog.blogspot.com/2012)

 

KSU U.S. Soybean Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

KSU forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are as follows:

a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 50% prob. of 84.839 ma planted ac., 84.058 ma harvested ac., 43.0 bu/ac yield, 3.614 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.774 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.720 bb crush, 1.625 bb exports, 3.456 bb total use, 318 mb ending stocks, 9.2% S/U, & $10.75 /bu;

b) “High Production” Scenario: 35% prob. of 85.058 ma planted ac., 84.983 ma harvested ac., trend yields of 44.3 bu/ac, 3.765 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.920 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.755 bb crush, 1.675 bb exports, 3.541 bb total use, 379 mb ending stocks, 10.7% S/U, & $10.00 /bu, and

c) “Low Production” Scenario: 15% prob. of 83.906 ma planted, 83.133 ma harvested, lower yields of 39.0 bu/ac, 3.242 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.412 bb U.S. soybean supplies, 1.600 bb crush, 1.500 bb exports, 3.202 bb total use, 210 mb ending stocks, 6.6% S/U, & $11.75 /bu.

 

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South American Export Infrastructure (Source: http://www.ozy.com/wildcard/ozy-on-latin-america/)

 

World Soybean Supply-Demand

World production of 304.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up from 283.9 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and from 268.0 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World soybean ending stocks of 85.3 mmt (30.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 67.2 mmt (24.9% S/U) in “current” MY 2013/14, and up from 56.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13.

Combined “new crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt – unchanged) is projected to be up 3.5 mmt. That said, with a large 2014 U.S. soybean crop harvest anticipated to be available in World grain export markets in Fall 2014 through late winter-spring 2015, and larger South American carryover stocks expected from “old crop” MY 2013/14, it is anticipated that World soybean production and supplies will be larger and prices sharply lower in “new crop” MY 2014/15 than a year ago.

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Kansas Country Roads – Pictures by Brad Mangas (Source: http://bradmangas.com/kansas-country-roads/)

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Corn and Wheat Market Probability Scenarios

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, July 18  are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_07-18-14.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, July 18th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

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Kansas Prairie Landscape Images by Tyra Olstad, KSU Student (Source of image: https://blogs.k-state.edu/kstatenews/2012/02/22/to-celebrate-prairie-landscapes-research-says-to-take-an-aesthetic-approach/)

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A Kansas Landscape Image from the Kansas Secretary of State online Gallery (Source: https://www.kssos.org/about/about_ks.html)

KSU Wheat Market Outlook in July 2014

An analysis of U.S. and World Wheat supply-demand factors and price prospects based on information from the July 11, 2014 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports have been placed up on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary – with the full analysis-article for Wheat to be found here.

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Summary

When the USDA released its Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on July 11, 2014, U.S. wheat market prices initially responded negatively – but have since traded in a sideways pattern. The USDA projected 2014 U.S. and World wheat production and supplies to be higher, with expectations for larger U.S. and World ending stocks and lower wheat market prices in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.

The “Prevailing Wheat Market Consensus”

The prevailing consensus of the U.S./World wheat market is that adequate Foreign wheat supplies exist to more than “cover” or “mitigate” 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production shortfalls in the Central and Southern plains states, and that no other major threats to World wheat supplies and trade have yet emerged to cause wheat prices to need to rise from current levels. The types of market factors that would cause this market outlook to change have not yet occurred or become apparent – such as substantially lower wheat production in North America or other major wheat producing regions of the World, or geopolitically-driven disruptions to World wheat markets in such places as the Middle East or the Black Sea region. Unless or until such disruptive events as these would occur, World wheat market prospects are pointing to steady-to-lower World wheat prices.

USDA U.S. Wheat Market Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

Compared to a year earlier, the USDA projected lower 2014 U.S. wheat production, reduced wheat usage, an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks and % stocks-to-use, and lower prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15. The USDA’s projected “new crop” market scenario is: 56.5 million acres (ma) planted, 46.2 ma harvested, 81.9% harvested-to-planted acres, 43.1 bu/ac yield (up from 42.3 bu/ac a month ago), a 1.992 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop (up 50 million bushels or ‘mb’), 2.741 bb total supplies (up 46 mb), 900 mb exports (down 25 mb), 2.081 bb total use (down 40 mb), 660 mb ending stocks (up 86 mb), 31.7% ending stocks-to-use (up from 27.1%), and $6.60 average price per bu. (range of $6.00 to $7.20) – down from $7.00 /bu.

Kansas State University U.S. Wheat Market Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

KSU projections of “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand balances and prices are as follows: a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 65% prob. of 46.2 ma harvested, 43.1 bu/ac, 1.992 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.741 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 900 mb exports, 2.081 bb total use, 660 mb ending stocks, 31.7% S/U, & $6.10 /bu; b) “Low Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 45.4 ma harvested, low yields of 41.1 bu/ac (both harvested acres and yield lower than USDA), 1.868 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.628 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 890 mb exports, 2.061 bb total use, 567 mb ending stocks, 27.5% S/U, & $6.55 /bu; and c) “Expected Production – Higher Exports” Scenario: 15% prob. of 46.2 ma harvested, yields of 43.1 bu/ac, 1.992 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.741 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 1.050 bb exports (up 150 mb from USDA forecast), 2.231 bb total use, 510 mb ending stocks, 22.9% S/U, & $7.50 /bu.

USDA World Wheat Market Outlook

World wheat total supplies of 889.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down marginally from 889.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up from 854.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 189.5 mmt (27.0% S/U) are up from 184.3 mmt (26.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 175.6 mmt (25.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13.   For market perspective, these levels of World wheat stocks need to be analyzed relative to the historic World wheat stocks minimum of 129.4 mmt (21.0% S/U) in MY 2007/08. Year-over-year increases are projected for wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 for Argentina (+4.5 mmt), Brazil (+0.4 mmt), and Russia (+1.0 mmt), with decreases forecast for the U.S. (-7.7 mmt), Australia (-0.5 mmt), Canada (-1.5 mmt), the EU (-2.5 mmt), India (-2.4 mmt), Kazakhstan (-2.4 mmt), and Ukraine (-0.5 mmt).

http://ag-at-large.areavoices.com/files/2012/07/072012-CROPhills-mjp.jpg

2014 Spring Wheat Harvest In North Dakota (Source: http://ag-at-large.areavoices.com/2012/07/21/)

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Sowing-Seeding Wheat in Australia (Source: https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/grains-research-development/frost-risk-%E2%80%93-manage-wheat-variety-and-sowing-time)

 

KSU Corn Market Outlook in July 2014

An analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and 2014 price prospects following the USDA’s July 11th USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports is available on the KSU AgManager website  (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in July 2014″ with the full article and accompanying analysis will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/archives/GRAIN-OUTLOOK_07-15-14_Corn.pdf

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Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, July 11, 2014, U.S. corn market prices have responded negatively – moving sharply lower on the day of the report, and then recovering some earlier losses the following trading day (i.e., Monday, July 14).

USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “Old Crop” MY 2013/14

Adjustments were also made to several “current” MY 2013/14 usage categories, including projected ethanol corn use (5.175 million bushels or ‘mb’ – down 25 mb), feed and residual use (5.175 billion bushels or ‘bb’ – down 125 mb), ending stocks (1.246 bb – up 100 mb), ending stocks-to-use (9.2% – up from 8.4%), and average price ($4.35-$4.55 – down $0.10 per bushel).

USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

The USDA used forecasts of U.S. 2014 planted (91.641 million acres or ‘ma’) and harvested (83.839 ma) from the June 30th USDA Acreage report along with internal projections of record high 2014 U.S. corn yields and production – figures that are still uncertain and subject to change in upcoming USDA reports. The USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn production of 13.860 bb – down 65 mb from a year earlier. Feed usage in “new crop” MY 2014/15 was projected to be 5.200 bb – down 75 mb from the June WASDE. “New crop” ending stocks and ending stocks-to-use were also raised to 1.801 bb (up 75 mb) and 13.5% (up from 12.9%), respectively. The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 average prices will be $3.65-$4.35 with a midpoint of $4.00 – down $0.20 /bu from June. As useful at these July report numbers are, it is important to remember that the first actual survey-based projection of 2014 U.S. corn production will be available in the August 12th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.

http://nationalhogfarmer.com/site-files/nationalhogfarmer.com/files/imagecache/medium_img/uploads/2013/09/dsc4250-sized.jpg

A Corn Field in the U.S. Cornbelt Corn in Fall 2013 (Source: http://nationalhogfarmer.com/nutrition/usda-forecasts-largest-corn-crop-record)

KSU U.S. Corn Forecast Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

KSU projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are as follows:

a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 50% prob. of 91.641 ma planted, 83.839 ma harvested, trend yields of 159.4 bu/ac, 13.364 bb 2014 U.S. corn production, 14.640 bb U.S. corn supplies, 1.700 bb exports, 13.310 bb total use, 1.330 bb ending stocks, 10.0% S/U, & $4.35 /bu;

b) “High Production” Scenario: 35% prob. of 92.891 ma planted, 84.983 ma harvested, yields of 164.4 bu/ac, 13.971 bb 2014 U.S. corn production, 15.237 bb U.S. corn supplies, 1.800 bb exports, 13.585 bb total use, 1.652 bb ending stocks, 12.2% S/U, & $4.10 /bu, and

c) “Low Production” Scenario: 15% prob. of 90.391 ma planted, 82.695 ma harvested, lower yields of 149.4 bu/ac, 12.355 bb 2014 U.S. corn production, 13.651 bb U.S. corn supplies, 1.400 bb exports, 12.525 bb total use, 1.126 bb ending stocks, 9.0% S/U, & $4.90 /bu.

World Corn Supply-Demand

World Corn Total Supplies of 1,154 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up from 1,123 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and up from 1,003 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of 118.1 mmt (19.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 173.4 mmt (18.3% S/U) in “current” MY 2013/14, and up from 138.2 mmt (16.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Combined “new crop” MY 2014/15 corn production for major export competitors Brazil (74.0 mmt – down 4.0) and Argentina (26.0 mmt – up 2.0) is projected to be down 2.0 mmt. However, with a large 2014 U.S. corn crop harvest anticipated to be available in World grain export markets in late winter-spring 2015, and no major threats having yet emerged to U.S. or foreign corn production so far in 2014, it is anticipated that World corn production and supplies will be larger and prices sharply lower in MY 2014/15 than a year ago.

Final Comments

Although moderate concerns about crop development have emerged in parts of the upper Midwestern states due to excessive moister, at this time these worries are not great enough to provide much support for corn prices. Absent an unforeseen major downturn in 2014 U.S. corn production and price prospects, it seems likely that U.S. corn markets are moving toward a low price period similar to the fall of 2008, a marketing year in which U.S. corn prices were at or below $4.00 per bushel for at least a moderate period of time.

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Anticipating the upcoming 2014 U.S. corn harvest (Source: http://westernfarmpress.com/markets/)

 

KSU “Quick Analysis” Calculations of USDA July 11th Reports – Numbers pointing toward larger Grain Supply-Demand Balances and Lower Prices

A KSU “quick analysis” worksheet of the key grain marketing-related information found in the July 11th USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report can be found on the Kansas State University AgManager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/).

The specific web address for this downloadable MS Excel Spreadsheet is found here:  http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/default.asp

The spreadsheet contains a comparison of USDA July 2014 U.S. and Foreign grain supply-demand and market price forecasts for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year for corn, wheat, soybeans and grain sorghum, with comparisons to a) pre-report trade estimates, and b) last month’s (June 2014) USDA grain production, supply-demand, and price projections.  Key information is contained on the following:

A. United States’, Brazil, Argentina and Total World crop production forecasts for 2014 corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybeans.

B. Updated U.S. & World ending stocks projections for the “current” 2013/14 marketing year for major crops (corn, sorghum, wheat, and soybeans).

C. Updated U.S. & World ending stocks projections for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year for major crops & crop categories (corn, coarse grains, wheat, and soybeans).

The worksheet also contains a more extensive foreign country-by-country analysis of the July 11, 2014 WASDE report results in regards to World wheat, coarse grain, corn and soybean supply-demand, focusing on country-by-country (or region-by-region in many cases) projections of production, imports, exports, domestic feed use, total domestic use, ending stocks, and stocks-to-use.

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Wheat Harvest Near Sublette in Southwest Kansas in mid-June 2013 (Source: http://www.kansas.com/2013/)

http://i.cbc.ca/1.1700681.1379087825!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/hi-farmtr2su0x-8col.jpg

Concerns about high farmland prices in Canada (source: http://frank-waterloo.blog.163.com/)

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U.S. Soybeans and Corn Growing Side-by-Side in the U.S. in 2012 (Source: http://www.thecropsite.com/news/)

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Market Situation and Pre-July 11th USDA Report Expectations

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to played on Friday, July 11th  are up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_07-11-14.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, July 11th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording can also be listened to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

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Indiana Corn & Forecast of lower prices back in 2009 (Source of image: http://www.lafayette-online.com/business/agriculture/2009/09/surplus-crop-lower-prices)

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Pondering Brazilian Soybean Supply-Demand in 2013 (Source: http://unitedsoybean.org/)

Results and Implications of the USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports of 6/30/2014

 

Following is a KSU Summary with market implications stemming from the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports.  The full report is available on the KSU Agmanager.info website (http://www.agmanager.info/) at the following web address:

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/archives/GRAIN-OUTLOOK_07-07-14_Acreage-Stocks.pdf

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Summary

On June 30th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The 2014 Acreage report provided the second actual survey-based information by the USDA on U.S. farmer’s cropping intentions for 2014, following the March 31st Prospective Plantings report. The Quarterly June 1st 2014 Grain Stocks report provided grain markets with improved information on the pace of usage of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans, and other major crops in their respective 2013/14 marketing years. As a result of these June 30th USDA reports, adjustments are likely occur to in the upcoming July 11th USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – particularly for “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year U.S. soybean and grain sorghum supply-demand balances and prices.

USDA Acreage Report on June 30th

The Acreage report projected 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage to be 91.641 million acres (ma), down marginally from pre-report trade expectations, and down from 95.365 ma in 2013, and the record high of 97.155 ma in 2012. Forecast harvested acres of corn in 2014 of 83.839 ma were down from 87.375 – 87.668 ma the previous two years. Planted acres of soybeans in 2014 were forecast to be a record high 84.839 ma, above the top end of the pre-report average trade estimates, and up from 76.533 ma in 2013 and 77.198 ma in 2012. Expected 2014 plantings of other spring wheat of 12.709 ma were also above the top end of the pre-report trade estimates, and up from 11.596 ma in 2013, and 12.289 ma in 2012. Projected planted acres of grain sorghum in 2014 are 7.471 ma, up 790,000 acres from the 3/31 Prospective Plantings estimate, but down from 8.061 ma in 2013, while up from 6.244 ma in 2012. Harvested acres of grain sorghum in 2014 of 6.399 ma are projected to be down from 6.530 ma in 2013, but up from 6.244 ma in 2012.

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U.S. Corn Field (Source: http://ethanolproducer.com/articles/10708/obligation-outcomes)

USDA Quarterly Stocks Report on June 30th

The Quarterly Grain Stocks report estimated that U.S. corn stocks on June 1st were 3.854 billion bushels (bb), up from 2.766 bb a year ago. Corn use during March-May 2014 was 3.154 bb, up from 2.634 bb in Mar-May 2013 and 2.886 bb in Mar-May 2012. Projected U.S. soybean stocks on June 1st were 405 mb, down from 435 mb a year ago. Soybean use during March-May 2014 was 589 mb, up from 563 mb in Mar-May 2013, but down from 712 mb in Mar-May 2012. Projected U.S. wheat stocks on June 1st were 590 mb, down from 718 mb a year ago. Wheat use during March-May 2014 was 467 mb, down from 517 mb in Mar-May 2013, and down from 486 mb in Mar-May 2012. Projected U.S. grain sorghum stocks on June 1st were 92 mb, up from 42 mb a year ago. Grain sorghum use during March-May 2014 was 83 mb, up from 50 mb in Mar-May 2013, and from 50 mb in Mar-May 2012.

http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/fotokostic/fotokostic1106/fotokostic110600020/9810430-soybean-field-with-rows-of-soya-bean-plants.jpg

A U.S. biotech Soybean Field in 2012 (Source: http://isaaablog.blogspot.com/2012_08_01_archive.html)

KSU Probability-Weighted Corn, Soybean and Wheat Supply-Demand and Price Forecasts

As a result of these reports, KSU supply-demand balance and price forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 were adjusted from early June projections. The U.S. 2014 corn production forecast was lowered slightly due to lower planted acreage, while higher planted acreage for soybeans, grain sorghum, and wheat led to higher 2014 crop production forecasts. For U.S. corn prices, the KSU “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year “likely” scenario was lowered $0.20 to $4.20 per bu from a month ago. The “likely” KSU soybean price forecast outcome in “new crop” MY 2014/15 was lowered $0.75 to $9.25 per bu. For U.S. wheat prices, the KSU “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year “likely” scenario outcome was lowered $0.95 down to $6.55 per bu from a month ago.
Barring unforeseen major crop production problems in the U.S., South America, the Black Sea region, China, Australia, or other major grain importing and/or exporting regions of the World, grain and oilseed prices are likely to continue to move lower into fall 2014 until or unless either a) lower prices of grains encourage demand, b) weather problems and associated crop production losses occur among the World’s major grain producing or using countries, or c) international geopolitical conflicts support grain markets.

http://hubbubblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/grain-elevator.jpg?w=640

World’s Largest Grain Elevator in Hutchinson, Kansas (Source: http://hubbubblog.wordpress.com/2011/10/23/what-i-talk-about-when-i-talk-about-kansas/)