KSU Soybean Market Outlook in December 2014 – Pessimism for prices without a 2015 crop shortfall somewhere

An analysis of U.S. and World soybean supply-demand factors and 2014-2015 price prospects following the USDA’s December 10th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports can be found on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp) early next week.

Following is a summary of the article on Soybean Market Outlook – with the full article and accompanying analysis to be available on Monday, December 22nd on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Soybeans.asp

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Summary

Introduction

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on December 10, 2014, U.S. soybean futures market prices moved generally sideways to lower. Soybean markets will remain sensitive to changes in South American production prospects and U.S. soybean exports through early spring. The next major survey based USDA report addressing U.S. crop production for soybeans and other major crops will be the USDA Annual Crop Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015 along with the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings reports.

USDA & KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “current crop” MY 2014/15

The USDA maintained its forecast of record high U.S. soybean production in 2014 of 3.958 billion bushels (bb) – up 600 million bushels (mb) from 3.358 bb in 2013, and 916 mb from 3.042 bb in 2012. The USDA raised its projection of soybean exports by 40 mb to a new record high of 1.760 billion bushels (bb) – leading to a 40 mb increase in total use up to 3.655 bb, and to a decrease in ending stocks – down to 410 mb. Percent ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 11.22% – down from 12.45% last month, but up from the record low of 2.65% in MY 2013/14. The USDA forecast “current crop” MY 2014/15 prices to be in the range $9.00-$11.00 with a midpoint of $10.00 – down from $13.00 a year ago in MY 2013/14, and from the record high of $14.40 in MY 2012/13.

The USDA’s forecast appears to have a 75% likelihood of occurring, with a 25% prob. of an alternative, “higher use / lower stocks” outcome. Following is an alternative KSU “Higher Use” Scenario forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15: 25% prob. of 4.065 bb U.S. soybean total supplies (= USDA), 1.797 bb domestic crush (up 1% vs USDA), 1.778 bb exports (up 1% vs USDA), 3.690 bb total use (up 35 mb vs USDA), 375 mb ending stocks (down 35 mb), 10.2% ending %S/U (vs 11.2% for USDA), & $10.50 /bu (vs $10.00 for USDA).

USDA & KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16

In its 10 year Agricultural Baseline projections through 2024 the USDA projected the following for 2015 and “next crop” MY 2015/16 (with an adjustment by KSU for lower beginning stocks): 84.0 ma planted, 83.1 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 3.820 bb production, 4.245 bb total supplies, 3.766 bb total use, 479 mb ending stocks, 12.72% S/U, and $9.00 /bu price. At this time the key market factor to assess in regards to U.S. soybean production and supply-demand prospects for “next crop” MY 2015/16 is the amount of U.S. soybean acres to be planted in 2015.
Alternative KSU forecasts for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are as follows:

A) KSU “Same Acreage” Scenario: 40% prob. of 84.184 ma planted and 83.403 ma harvested (both same as 2014), trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.761 bb 2015 production, 4.186 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.655 bb total use (same as 2014/15), 531 mb ending stocks (up from 410 mb in 2014/15), 14.53% ending S/U (vs 11.22% in 2014/15), & $9.25 /bu (vs $10.00 /bu in 2014/15); and

B) KSU “Up 2 Million Acres” Scenario: 60% prob. of 86.184 ma planted (up 2.0 ma) and 85.382 ma harvested (up 1.979 ma), trend yield of 45.1 bu/ac, 3.848 bb 2015 production, 4.273 bb U.S. soybean total supplies, 3.700 bb total use, 573 mb ending stocks (up from 410 mb in 2014/15), 15.49% ending S/U, & $8.75 /bu (vs $10.00 /bu in MY 2014/15 by the USDA).

World Soybean Supply-Demand

Record high projected World soybean production of 312.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be up from 285.3 mmt in MY 2013/14, and from 268.1 mmt in MY 2012/13. Record high projected World soybean ending stocks of 89.9 mmt (31.4% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 66.6 mmt (24.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and up from 56.3 mmt (21.6 % S/U) in MY 2012/13. Forecast South American “current crop” MY 2014/15 soybean production that will be harvested in early 2015 is as follows: Brazil (94.0 mmt – up 7.3 mmt from a year earlier), Argentina (55.0 mmt – up 1.0 mmt), and Paraguay (8.5 mmt – up 0.3 mmt), totaling 157.5 mmt (up 8.6 mmt or 5.8% from 148.9 mmt last year).

 

http://farmprogress.com/cdfm/Faress1/author/2/looking_soy_data_1_634704472649449887.jpg

A U.S. Soybean field in summer (Source: http://farmprogress.com/story-looking-soybean-data-0-59111 )

http://travellogs.us/2009%20Logs/Kansas%202009/09-53%20Coffeyville/IMG_7600soy%20beans1.JPG

A Soybean field ready to harvest near Coffeyville, Kansas in 2009 (Source: http://travellogs.us/2009%20Logs/Kansas%202009/09-53%20Coffeyville/53-09%20Soy%20Bean%20Harvest.htm)

KSU Wheat Market Outlook in December 2014

An analysis of U.S. and World Wheat supply-demand factors and price prospects based on information from the December 10, 2014 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports will be placed up on the KSU AgManager website (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary – with the full analysis-article for Wheat to be found here: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Wheat.asp

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Summary

Introduction

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on December 10, 2014, U.S. wheat market prices have trended higher. The USDA projected marginally larger World wheat production, ending stocks and ending stocks-to-use, but marginally higher U.S. domestic wheat supply-demand balances. The USDA projected for the “current crop” 2014/2015 marketing year that a) World wheat production, supplies, and total use would be at record high levels, b) World wheat export trade would be 4.7% lower than a year ago but still the third highest on record, and c) World wheat ending stocks and percent ending stocks-to-use would be at their highest levels in three marketing years, although still less than during the 2009/2010 through 2011/2012 period. Wheat prices in the U.S. are projected to be down to the lowest levels in four years due to limited U.S. wheat exports and domestic livestock wheat feeding.

What to Watch for Through mid-January 2015

The USDA projects that foreign wheat supplies are more than adequate to “mitigate” shortfalls in 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production in the Central and Southern plains states. Also, no other major production problems in competing World wheat exporting countries have yet emerged to the degree that the “large crop-over-supply” situation in World wheat markets has been affected. However, there are developing concerns about dry wheat production conditions in Australia, crop quality problems in parts of Europe, and wheat export supply availability from Russia and the Black Sea region. United States’ wheat exports have been reduced by a recent strong positive trend in the U.S. dollar. The wheat market will now likely focus on weekly export sales and shipments, the condition of U.S. and foreign crops in the field, Russian export supply news, and the upcoming January 12, 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production Annual Summary report.

USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15

The USDA maintained its projection of lower 2014 U.S. wheat production, reduced total use, increased ending stocks and % stocks-to-use, and lower prices in “current crop” MY 2014/15 vs a year ago. The USDA’s projected MY 2014/15 scenario is for a 2.026 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 2.795 bb total supplies (up 10 mb), 925 mb exports, 2.141 bb total use, 654 mb ending stocks (up 10 mb), 30.6% ending stocks-to-use (vs 30.1% last month), and a forecast U.S. price of $6.00 /bu (range of $5.80 to $6.20) – compared to $5.65-$6.15 ($5.90 midpoint) from November. If recent wheat futures prices hold through May, the USDA “current crop” MY 2014/15 price may rise to near $6.38 /bu.

KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15

KSU projections of “current crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand balances and prices are essentially equal to the USDA’s except for the possibility of either “Lower Export” or “Higher Export” scenarios, which are as follows. A) “Lower Export” Scenario: 10% prob. of acreage, yields, production and total supplies being the same as those of the USDA, but with 125 mb less U.S. wheat exports. This would result in 800 mb exports, 2.016 bb total use, 779 mb ending stocks, 38.64% S/U, and a forecast price of $5.65-6.15 /bu (midpoint of $5.90 – down from $6.00 for the USDA). Cash wheat prices in the U.S. will need to decline to $5.20-$5.25 for January-May 2015 for this price forecast to occur. B) “Higher Export” Scenario: 20% prob. of acreage, yields, production and total supplies being the same as those of the USDA, but with 125 mb more U.S. wheat exports. This would result in 1.050 bb exports, 2.266 bb total use, 529 mb ending stocks, 23.35% S/U, and a forecast price of $6.60 /bu (up from the USDA midpoint of $6.00). Cash wheat prices in the U.S. will need to rise to $7.75 for January-May 2015 for this to occur.

USDA World Wheat

World wheat total supplies of 907.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 889.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 854.1 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 194.9 mmt (27.4% S/U) are up from 185.3 mmt (26.3% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 174.5 mmt (25.7% S/U) in MY 2012/13. For perspective, these figures can be compared to the historic World wheat ending stocks and ending stocks-to-use minimums of 129.0 mmt and 21.0% S/U in MY 2007/08.

 

http://kansasagnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Winter-Wheat-Snow.jpg

Kansas Wheat fields a year ago (January 2014) (Source: http://kansasagnetwork.com/2014/kansas-wheat-condition-drops-significantly-during-the-month-of-january/)

http://russia-insider.com/sites/insider/files/styles/s400/public/2666914808.jpg?itok=UaVRNI_U

A farmer scooping wheat in Russia (Source: http://russia-insider.com/en/business/2014/11/05/04-37-47pm/weaker_ruble_boosts_russian_wheat_exports)

 

 

 

KSU Corn Market Outlook in December 2014: The case for $3.95 /bu in MY 2014/15 and $4.20 /bu in MY 2015/16

An analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and 2014-2015 price prospects following the USDA’s December 10th USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports is available on the KSU AgManager website  (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in December 2014″ with the full article and accompanying analysis will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Corn.asp

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Summary

Introduction

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on December 10th, MAR 2015 and DEC 2015 corn futures prices have moved higher, raising hopes of an eventual return to storage for U.S. crop producers resisting sales at sub-$4.00 cash prices. With 1) a record high 2014 U.S. corn crop, and 2) prospects for record or near-record World corn production and ending stocks in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, prospects for a corn futures price rally above say $5.00 appear limited – unless unexpected and substantial crop production problems occur in other major coarse grain production regions of the World (such as in South America or Ukraine). Absent such a foreign production shortfall in coming months, price prospects are likely to be limited until at least April-May 2015 – the main U.S. corn planting season.

USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “Current crop” MY 2014/15

The USDA left unchanged its forecast 2014 U.S. corn production to be a record 14.407 billion bushels (bb), based on projected planted and harvested acreage of 90.885 million acres or ‘ma’, and 83.097 ma, respectively, and a record 2014 U.S. corn yield of 173.4 bushels per acre. The USDA projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.668 bb (billion bushels), up 6.0% from 14.782 bb last year. Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.670 bb (up 10 mb or million bushels from a month ago) is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.150 bb (up 16 mb from MY 2013/14), non-ethanol FSI use of 1.395 bb (up 10 mb from a month ago), exports of 1.750 bb (down 167 mb from a year ago), and feed and residual use of 5.375 bb (up 243 mb vs last year).

“Current crop” ending stocks are forecast at 1.998 bb (14.6% S/U) – up from 1.236 bb (9.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 821 mb (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13. The USDA left unchanged its forecast that “current crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices will be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 per bu. with a midpoint of $3.50 – down from $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 in MY 2012/13.

KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15

An alternative projection by KSU Extension to the USDA for “current crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. corn supply-demand and prices is as follows: “Increased Usage” Scenario: 30% prob. of 15.668 bb U.S. corn supplies (same as USDA), 13.965 bb total use (up 2.2% from USDA), 1.703 bb ending stocks, 12.2% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn price (compared to $3.50 /bu by the USDA).

KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

A KSU projection for “next crop” MY 2015/16 for U.S. corn is as follows: “2015 Less 2 Million Acre” Scenario: 88.885 ma planted in 2015, 81.268 ma harvested, trend yields of 162.7 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.222 bb, U.S. corn supplies of 15.246 bb, total use of 13.700 bb, ending stocks of 1.545 bb, 11.3% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. corn season average prices.

World Corn Supply-Demand

World total supplies of 1,164 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15, up from 1,127 mmt in MY 2013/14, and from 1,002.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of 192.2 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 173 mmt (18.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 138 mmt (15.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13.

Combined “current crop” MY 2014/15 corn production for the U.S.’ major export competitors Brazil (75.0 mmt – down 4.3) and Argentina (22.0 mmt – down 3.0) is projected to be down 7.3 mmt from MY 2013/14. Forecast Ukraine 2014 corn production of 27.0 mmt is down 3.9 mmt from a year ago. South American acreage decisions either have been or are being made now for later plantings of 2015 crops in the Dec-January period.

U.S. Corn Acreage Decisions in 2015

With closing CME NOV-2015 soybean futures of $10.02 and CME DEC-2015 corn futures of $4.30 ¾ on 12/16/2014, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.33 is neutral for the two crops in the U.S. (i.e., being essentially equal to the customary 2.3 breakeven level). If South American farmers were to shift sizable acreage away from corn into 2015 soybeans – markedly diminishing foreign 2015 production prospects, and/or have weather-induced 2015 corn production problems, then by March-April 2015 World corn market price prospects for “next crop” MY 2015/16 could be positively affected – which could impact U.S. farmers’ 2015 spring planting choices (i.e., more U.S. corn acres, and less soybean acres).

http://harvestpublicmedia.org/sites/default/files/styles/article_main_image/public/0112_corn-1.jpg?itok=K5lNONxW

Kansas Corn Stubble & Grain Storage in 2012 (Source: http://harvestpublicmedia.org/article/965/surprise-corn-stocks-are/5)

http://images.morris.com/images/cjonline/mdControlled/cms/2008/02/23/250015597.jpg

Corn being used at a Kansas ethanol plant in 2008 (Source: http://cjonline.com/stories/022308/bus_250015541.shtml)

KSU Corn Market Outlook in November 2014: Perspectives on 2014/15 and 2015/16 Corn Market Price Prospects

An analysis of U.S. and World corn supply-demand factors and 2014 price prospects following the USDA’s November 10th USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports is available on the KSU AgManager website  (http://www.agmanager.info/default.asp).

Following is a summary of the article on “Corn Market Outlook in November 2014″ with the full article and accompanying analysis will soon be available on the KSU AgManager website at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/archives/GRAIN-OUTLOOK_11-18-14_Corn.pdf

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Summary

Introduction

Since the USDA released its Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on November 10th, DEC 2014 and JULY 2015 corn futures prices have moved sideways to higher, raising hopes of an eventual return to storage for U.S. crop producers resisting sales at sub-$4.00 cash prices. With 1) a record high 2014 U.S. corn crop, and 2) prospects for record or near-record World corn production and ending stocks in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, “new crop” corn price prospects will be limited – unless unexpected and substantial crop production problems occur in other major coarse grain production regions of the World. Absent a shortfall in World feedgrain market supply-demand balances, price prospects are likely to be limited until April-May 2015 – the beginning of the U.S. corn planting and growing season.

USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

The USDA forecast 2014 U.S. corn production to be a record 14.407 billion bushels (bb), based on projected planted and harvested acreage of 91.885 million acres or ‘ma’, and 83.097 ma, respectively, and a record 2014 U.S. corn yield of 173.4 bushels per acre. The USDA also projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.668 bb, up 6.0% from 14.782 bb a year earlier. Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.660 bb is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.150 bb (up 16 mb from MY 2013/14), non-ethanol FSI use of 1.385 bb (up 22 mb), exports of 1.750 bb (down 167 mb), and feed and residual use of 5.375 bb (up 243 mb). “New crop” ending stocks are forecast at 2.008 bb – up from 1.236 bb (9.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 821 million bushels or ‘mb’ (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13. The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices will be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 per bushel with a midpoint of $3.50 – down from $4.46 in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and $6.89 in MY 2012/13.

KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

An alternative projection by KSU to the USDA for “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. corn supply-demand and prices is as follows: “Increased Usage” Scenario: 40% prob. of 15.668 bb U.S. corn supplies (same as USDA), 13.955 bb total use (up 2.2% from USDA), 1.713 bb ending stocks, 12.3% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn price.

KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

A KSU projection for “next crop” MY 2015/16 for U.S. corn is as follows: “2015 Less 3 Million Acre” Scenario: 88.885 ma planted in 2015, 80.885 ma harvested, trend yields of 162.7 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.073 bb, U.S. corn supplies of 15.106 bb, total use of 13.650 bb, ending stocks of 1.456 bb, 10.7% S/U, & $4.15 /bu U.S. corn season average prices.

World Corn Supply-Demand

World total supplies of 1,163 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2014/15, up from 1,127 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 1,002 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of 191.5 mmt (19.7% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 173 mmt (18.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 138 mmt (15.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13.

Major Export Competitors Situation

Combined “new crop” MY 2014/15 corn production for the U.S.’ major export competitors Brazil (75.0 mmt – down 4.3) and Argentina (23.0 mmt – down 2.0) is projected to be down 6.3 mmt from “old crop” MY 2013/14. Forecast Ukraine 2014 corn production of 27.0 mmt is down 3.9 mmt from a year ago. South American acreage decisions either have been or are being made now for first planting of 2015 crops in the Nov-Dec 2014 period, with subsequent additional plantings coming after the first of the year.

U.S. Corn versus Soybean Acreage Decision for 2015

With closing CME NOV-2015 soybean futures of $10.25 and CME DEC-2015 corn futures of $4.21 ½ on 11/17/2014, the ratio of 2.43 may slightly favor soybeans (i.e., being greater than the customary 2.3 breakeven level). If South American farmers shift sizable acreage away from corn into 2015 soybeans – markedly diminishing 2015 production prospects, and/or have weather-induced 2015 corn production problems, then by March-April 2015 World corn market price prospects for “next crop” MY 2015/16 could be positively effected – which could impact U.S. farmers’ 2015 spring planting choices.

 

 

http://i.guim.co.uk/static/w-620/h--/q-95/sys-images/Environment/Pix/columnists/2011/5/31/1306848749787/MDG--Biofuel-production---007.jpg

U.S. Corn in Storage in 2011 (Source: http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/corn-harvest-continues-to-impress)

http://www.zimmcomm.biz/images/corn/distillers-grains.jpg

Corn for use in livestock feed i 2008 (Source: http://corncommentary.com/2008/09/26/tons-of-livestock-feed/)

KSU Weekly Grain Market Analysis: Grains trekking into winter-spring 2015 “store-sell” mode

Grain market summary notes, charts and comments ahead of the KSU Agriculture Today Grain Outlook to be played on Friday, November 14th will be placed up on  the Kansas State University www.AgManager.info website at the following web address within a short time: http://www.agmanager.info/news/Articles/KSRN_GrainOutlook_11-14-14.pdf

The recorded radio program will be aired at 10:03 a.m. central time, Friday, November 14th on the K-State Radio Network (here) – web player available.  At this time the program, the recording will be available for listening to via a link from the following website in the “Radio Interviews” section: http://www.agmanager.info/news/default.asp

Following are some key parts of this KSU weekly grain market update report:

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KSU Wheat Market Outlook – Prospects for U.S. Wheat Markets through Summer 2015

Following are parts of the Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015 to be presented in the 2014 K-State Insurance Workshop in Salina, Kansas on Thursday, November 13, 2014.  This year’s workshop will focus on topics pertinent to the Kansas Crop Insurance Industry. Registration information and program details are available at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/events/Insurance/2014/Default.asp

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Following is the full Wheat Market portion of the “Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015” presentation to be given by Daniel O’Brien of KSU on Thursday, November 13th, with price information current through Monday, November 10, 2014.

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KSU Soybean Market Outlook – Prospects for Soybean Markets through Fall 2015

Following are parts of the Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015 to be presented in the 2014 K-State Insurance Workshop in Salina, Kansas on Thursday, November 13, 2014.  This year’s workshop will focus on topics pertinent to the Kansas Crop Insurance Industry. Registration information and program details are available at the following web address: http://www.agmanager.info/events/Insurance/2014/Default.asp

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Following is the full Soybean Market portion of the “Grain Market Outlook for 2014-2015” presentation to be given by Daniel O’Brien of KSU on Thursday, November 13th, with price information current through Monday, November 10, 2014.

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